Tuesday’s slate of Olympic competitions includes a lot of interesting basketball matchups that are worth exploring.
I am specifically interested in these games: Serbia vs. Australia, France vs. Canada, and Brazil vs. USA. For your best bets at top-rated sportsbooks, I will recommend taking all three underdogs: Australia, France, and Brazil.
Picks SummaryÂ
- Australia +7.5 (-115)
- France +7.5 (-110)
- Brazil +26.5 (-105)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)Â
Serbia vs. Australia (basketball)
Tuesday, August 06, 2024 – 08:30 AM ET at Bercy Arena
It’s All About Jokic
Serbia will rely primarily on its NBA superstar, Nikola Jokic. He has it easy against a lot of these teams that Serbia is facing because they lack NBA talent. However, Australia does have NBA talent inside.
Now, Jokic obviously thrives in the NBA, so of course he can handle NBA talent. However, when Jokic plays for Serbia, he is only surrounded by a little bit of NBA talent. So, when these national teams are competing, Jokic has to do more than he does for the Denver Nuggets in the NBA. Jokic’s importance to Serbia cannot be overstated.
One key point for this game is that Jokic will have to carry his team not only to win but also to cover the very Serb-friendly spread, but he’ll face a difficult challenge. This difficult challenge is Jock Landale, who plays for the Houston Rockets.
Landale loves to park around the rim and play great defense. He’ll keep Jokic from doing too much damage inside. When Landale plays in the NBA, his defensive rating is excellent: his defensive rating was 105.1 last year and 105.3 this most recent season. These are excellent numbers.
Serbia won’t be able to rely on Jokic – not nearly to the extent that it wants and needs to – because of Landale.
Australia’s Shooters
Australia will overwhelm Serbia with its plethora of weapons.
The Australians boast solid three-point shooters, with Joe Ingles and Josh Green being two examples of guys who make their living in the NBA by shooting efficiently from behind the arc.
They’ll utilize well-reputed perimeter defenders, especially Dante Exum of the Dallas Mavericks, who shared Landale’s ability this year to earn a solid defensive rating, to limit Serbia’s potential from behind the arc. Of course, Landale is also an effective scorer inside who is always capable of scoring a lot of points.
Basketball Best Bet: Australia +7.5 (-115) at Bet365
France vs. Canada (basketball)
Tuesday, August 06, 2024 – 10:00 AM ET at Bercy Arena
The Interior Is Difference-Making
Some people think of basketball as a three-point shooting contest, but this game is going to be won and lost in the interior.
France is an underdog, and people are interested in betting on the Canadians to cover because of Canada’s general reputation and France’s big loss in its most recent game. Bettors – and humans in general – have a troubling tendency to attach exaggerated significance to the most recent game, the most recent event.
However, France’s last opponent, Germany, is strong inside. So, Germany was always going to be a tough matchup for France.
I like France to cover the spread in this upcoming game because the French are dogged, and yet they have a tremendous matchup advantage. The Canadians are weak inside where they have lower-end NBA talent. Conversely, the French boast Victor Wembanyama, who is a tremendous scorer.
Wembanyama is a center who averaged just over 20 points per game in the NBA this season. He is also a strong interior defender, and it really takes a physically strong guy like Joel Embiid to make him struggle. While Wembanyama isn’t particularly strong in this physical sense, Canada lacks the physical talent to hurt him – on either end of the court.
Rudy Gobert is also a key player for France. He’ll serve as a roller on pick-and-rolls, but defense is his calling card. He’s a four-time Defensive Player of the Year primarily because of his rim protection.
Takeaway
Canada is outmatched inside, where it will struggle to score and to contain France.
The onus is too great on Canada’s guards to cover the large spread, yet France has some good guard play, too, as in Evan Fournier of the Detroit Pistons. Canada’s guard advantage is not nearly extensive or otherwise strong enough to make up for its inferiority inside.
Basketball Best Bet: France +7.5 (-110) at Bet365
USA vs. Brazil (basketball)
Tuesday, August 06, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Bercy Arena
Take The Heavy Underdog
Team USA is worth betting against whenever it faces a heavy underdog. The Americans have their eyes on gold, that is their expectation. As such, they are focused on beating the teams that they consider to be contenders.
People have a high perception of the Americans because of what they’ve done to Serbia and Canada, both of whom carry strong reputations. People also wonder how the Americans could nearly lose to South Sudan and Germany.
The reason is that those other opponents are not considered to be serious contenders.
The Americans have been the clear favorite against South Sudan twice, against Germany, and most recently against Puerto Rico. Team USA failed to come close to covering the spread in any of those games.
I like Brazil in this game precisely because it’s a bad team. This sounds counterintuitive to say, but that’s precisely the point. Brazil will cover the spread because it is indubitably classed among the likes of South Sudan, Germany (especially Germany before its group stage surprise), and Puerto Rico rather than among the likes of Serbia and Canada.
America will not take Brazil seriously enough to come close to covering the spread. Team USA will show its dominance for a bit and spend most of the game relaxing. The Americans have bigger fish to fry.
Basketball Best Bet: Brazil +26.5 (-105) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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