Among the various bets that you can place on this game, one way of attacking is by playing a teaser. A teaser is a parlay made up of alternate spreads or totals. The traditional teaser adds or subtracts six points to the spreads and totals making up the legs of the parlay.
For your best bets, I recommend taking advantage of the opportunity offered by Caesars Sportsbook to add six points to tease Chiefs from +2 to +8 with the “under” from 47.5 up to 53.5.
I see this game as a low-scoring affair in which the Chiefs triumph, so getting these extra points in the spread and total makes the parlay aspect – both legs have to hit for the bet to cash – more than worthwhile.
- Chiefs +8
- Under 53.5
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Kansas City’s Top-Ranked Defense
The biggest reason why this teaser will hit will be the strength of Kansas City’s defense. Led by coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, Kansas City’s defense is one of the NFL’s best.
The Chiefs rank fourth-best at limiting opposing yardage. Their scoring defense ranks number two, as they allow 16.8 points per game.
The best argument against this line of thinking is that San Francisco has a great offense. Does San Francisco’s great offense supersede the greatness of the Chiefs’ defense?
A major capping question is how we navigate this strength-on-strength situation. In order to resolve this apparent conundrum, let’s take a look at the games in which San Francisco has attained high point totals. San Francisco scoring over 30 points would suffice to threaten our teaser.
San Francisco’s High-Scoring and Low-Scoring Games
The 49ers scored over 30 points against Arizona, Dallas, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Philadelphia.
All of those opponents but one are namely awful against the pass. As measured by its ability to limit the opponent’s passer rating, Arizona ranks 31st, Jacksonville 17th, Tampa Bay 24th, Seattle 21st, and Philadelphia 30th.
While Dallas ranks highly against the pass, the Cowboys played in San Francisco, and they are substantially worse on the road than at home. On the road, the Cowboys allow a 91.4 passer rating, which, as an overall statistic, would pit them at 20th.
While there were games in which the 49ers reached 30 points, they benefited from facing awful, mistake-prone offenses and, relatedly, from receiving short-yardage situations that netted them easy points.
The fact of the matter is that San Francisco tends to score a lot when its pass attack has an easy matchup. This conclusion is supported by the further fact that the 49ers’ worst games have come against top-ranked pass defenses. They failed to reach 20 points against Baltimore and Cleveland teams that, respectively, rank first and third against the pass.
Why This Is The Case
This is the case because San Francisco has a lot of weapons with which to exploit low-quality defenses. Many defensive coordinators are simply clueless as to how to stop an offense in general, let alone one that is as star-studded as San Francisco’s.
It is no coincidence that defenses victimized by San Francisco include Jacksonville and Philadelphia, both being teams that fired their defensive coordinator.
On the other side, there are great defenses led by smart coordinators who are too smart for the 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan. These have proven able to triumph over San Francisco’s defense.
While it’s basically impossible to shut out the 49ers, the teaser gives us a tremendous cushion to work with. 20 points will be hard for San Francisco’s offense to reach against the Chiefs, just as it was against the Ravens and Browns.
Kansas City has one of the NFL’s top defensive coordinators. Steve Spagnuolo is the only coordinator to win at least one Super Bowl with two different franchises.
His creativity enables the Chiefs to rank number one in sack rate, as the pressure that he helps generate helps befuddle opposing offenses.
Kansas City’s Pass Defense
Crucially in view of when the 49ers tend to score a lot of points or to score few points, the Chiefs rank number four in pass defenses.
L’Jarius Sneed regularly helps shut down opposing number-one wide receivers. Studs like Amon-Ra St. Brown for Detroit and Miami’s Tyreek Hill regularly produce vastly fewer yards against the Chiefs than they do against other teams.
Trent McDuffie is also a cornerback with solid coverage skills. Of course, Kansas City’s cornerbacks are aided by its pass rush, which keeps them from having to cover a wide receiver for too long a time.
Kansas City’s Offense
The Chiefs won’t score enough to threaten our “under” play, as their offense has declined since Tyreek Hill’s departure, which has left Patrick Mahomes searching for weapons.
Chiefs wide receivers drop more passes than any other team’s receivers. This and running back Isiah Pacheco‘s mediocrity – in terms of various metrics – keep the Chiefs regularly around 20 points per game.
The Chiefs have been improving offensively, though, as since December 17 they have been more consistent about scoring 20 or more points.
Given the 49ers’ vulnerability against both the run and the pass – their weaknesses at cornerback have compelled them to make numerous lineup changes, and they have already been gashed in these playoffs by both Green Bay’s and Detroit’s running game – the Chiefs are sure to score around 20 points on Sunday.
San Francisco’s offense will again struggle to score against a top defense – and Kansas City’s defense, ranked as highly as it is and led by its elite defensive coordinator, is certainly a top one.
The improved Chiefs’ offense will certainly reach the 20s against a 49ers defense that is vulnerable against both the pass and the run.
I am seeing a 24-20-type game in favor of the Chiefs, with the teaser making this game comfortable especially because San Francisco’s offense is just too talented to shut out.
Neither team will score enough to threaten the “under,” and the Chiefs have the future Hall-of-Famer at quarterback to win the game.
- Chiefs +8
- Under 53.5
NFL Pick: Six-Point Teaser (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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