The UFL started last week and none of the Week 1 games had more than 41 total points scored. That already brought the lines down a little this week as no game is above 41.5 points at the top-rated sportsbooks.
But we have regression and some overs in mind for our best bets for UFL Week 2. Maybe the teams will feel more comfortable after getting a game in, and we have some evenly-matched games with the 1-0 teams playing each other and ditto for the 0-1 teams.
We included our best bet for one of the top games in Week 2 below.
Picks Summary
- Brahmas -1.5 (-110)
- Renegades-Battlehawks Over 41.5 Points (-110)
- Stallions-Panthers Over 41.5 Points (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Birmingham Stallions vs. Michigan Panthers
Sunday, April 7, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Ford Field
The Stallions are still money after a 27-14 win against the team that won the XFL last year. This team continues to get the job done with what will be a 3rd different primary quarterback in 3 seasons as they look to win another championship. This time it’s Matt Corral, the 2022 draft pick by the Panthers who never made his mark in the NFL.
Michigan needed a 64-yard field goal to finish the Stallions off, but they better bring a much better effort this week.
Michigan is a 6.5-point home underdog with a total of 41.5 points. We are looking at the total for this one.
Birmingham: The Standard
The Stallions did not disappoint in their UFL debut. Birmingham’s 397 yards of offense in Week 1 was over 100 more yards than any other offense. New quarterback Matt Corral, the 3rd-round pick by the Panthers in 2022, shook off a slow start and finished strong with 201 passing yards and his first touchdown pass.
Birmingham actually led the league in passing yards (226) and rushing yards (171) in Week 1, so that’s great balance. They can do it all and there is no discernible weakness yet for this team.
Michigan: Keep Up
Michigan was No. 2 in yards last week with 280, so we are getting the top offenses in yards from last week in this matchup. But the Panthers are definitely going to need more than 18 points to beat the Stallions.
The Panthers also rushed for 112 yards, which makes them and the Stallions the only teams to cross 80 rushing yards last week. Maybe they are that much further ahead on offense than the rest of the league, though we obviously need more data to decide that.
But it was a solid start for the Panthers. It’s just really hard to trust this team to close after giving up 2 late touchdown passes to A.J. McCarron last week. They were fortunate to win a game on a 64-yard field goal, the 2nd-longest game-winning kick in professional football history.
The Pick
The idea here is the Stallions could score upwards of 30 points in this game to build on last week’s nice debut. But the Panthers also showed enough skill at running and passing to think scoring 17 points at the very least is well within reach.
In fact, it wouldn’t be a shock if this proved to be the highest-scoring game of Week 2. We’ll take the over with the expectations that Birmingham continues to roll with a win.
UFL Pick: Over 41.5 (-110) at Bet365
San Antonio Brahmas vs. Memphis Showboats
Saturday, April 6, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
The Brahmas did a very good job of upsetting the Defenders in Week 1 under new coach Wade Phillips. But the Showboats also got the win under new coach John DeFilippo, so someone is looking to start 2-0 here.
The Showboats are a 1.5-point home underdog with a total of 40.5 points. We are eyeing that spread, the only one smaller than 5 points in any game this week.
Brahmas: Trust the Defense?
The Brahmas did a great job on defense in Week 1, sacking DC quarterback Jordan Ta’amu 4 times and holding that offense that was No. 1 in the XFL last year to 12 points and no touchdowns in a big win.
They have an easier draw this week with the Showboats, who only had 226 yards of offense in Week 1, the 2nd-lowest total. Memphis had just 32 rushing yards, the fewest in the UFL in Week 1, so that could be problematic if a one-dimensional attack is going up against an aggressive pass rush called by Phillips, who historically has coached teams that get off to fast starts.
We just need to see a little improvement from the San Antonio offense, which was the problematic unit a year ago. But the Brahmas completed 74.1% of their passes in Week 1 to lead all teams. Keep moving the chains, protect the ball, and play great defense. That is a typical blueprint for a team coached by Phillips.
Showboats: Not Overly Impressive
After taking 3 sacks and not hitting many big plays, the Showboats averaged just 4.8 yards per pass in Week 1. Only the Defenders (4.5) were lower, which is bad news when they played the Brahmas last week. Now we get to see if the San Antonio defense can repeat that success against Case Cookus and company.
Cookus had a nice first half when the Showboats scored 15 points, but they only made a field goal after halftime and had to hold on for an 18-12 win over Houston. A lack of a running game made things harder on Cookus, so keep an eye on that production as the short passing game may have to compensate for the lack of being able to run the ball.
Another reason to think the Showboats might struggle to repeat last week’s win is they were 9-of-15 on 3rd down, the best performance on that money down of any team in Week 1. That helped make up for the lack of rushing production and to keep drives going that usually would stall out.
The Pick
No longer an underdog and already rising on the championship odds, the Brahmas look like the more impressive team right now. We like the coaching edge in this league, and Phillips is a good one to back in Week 2 with the Brahmas in what could be a tight game with this small of a spread at the UFL odds boards.
UFL Pick: Brahmas -1.5 (-110) at Bet365
Arlington Renegades vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Saturday, April 6, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at The Dome at America’s Center
The Battlehawks are coming off that tough 18-16 loss in Michigan, going down on one of the greatest field goals in football history from 64 yards out. As for Arlington, it was a good start against the Stallions, but Birmingham took control in the 2nd half in that 27-14 win.
The Battlehawks are a 5-point home favorite with a total of 41.5 points. We are looking at the total here.
St. Louis: Trusting A.J. McCarron
We see St. Louis lost some shine in its UFL championship odds after losing the opener, but how can you argue with A.J. McCarron throwing a pair of go-ahead touchdown passes in the 4th quarter? If not for that 64-yard field goal, he would have had a comeback win himself here.
You should feel fine about the Battlehawks until proven otherwise. St. Louis was 1-of-3 teams to not throw an interception in Week 1 as McCarron can protect the ball with his experience. He also does a good job of overcoming his offensive line’s flaws in pass protection.
The Battlehawks played a disciplined game with 3 penalties for 30 yards, the fewest of any team in Week 1. If they can start as strong as they finished offensively last week, they should score well over 20 points this week.
Arlington Looking for Bounce Back
Arlington won the XFL Championship last year after going just 4-6 in the regular season. They traded late in the year for Luis Perez to be their quarterback. He had a great playoffs with 3 touchdown passes in each game, but in Week 1, he only led a single touchdown drive. Arlington scored just 3 points after halftime.
But Perez did not play a poor game. He was 19-of-28 for 214 yards with a pick. He’ll have to do better in this game, but the St. Louis defense was vulnerable late in last week’s game, which featured 4 lead changes in the final quarter.
The Pick
You could take the Battlehawks to win, but the best bet is the over as we expect big things out of the McCarron-led offense at home. Last week, the Stallions piled up 397 yards of offense on this Arlington defense. Look for McCarron to have a nice game and get at least 23 points on the board for St. Louis.
But the Renegades should also be able to approach 20 points and help this game get over 41.5 points as both teams have enough balance to expect a close, competitive game.
UFL Pick: Over 41.5 (-110) at Bet365
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