The UFL has gotten off to a low-scoring start, but every game in Week 2 was close and decided by a single possession in the 4th quarter. That at least provides some excitement for fans.
In Week 3, we’ll see if the Defenders can drop the Renegades to 0-3, if the Stallions can cruise to 3-0, and if the Battlehawks can get on a winning streak after their comeback win in Week 2.
We included our best bets for Week 3 below.
Picks Summary
- Defenders-Renegades Over 43.5 (-110)
- Showboats-Stallions Under 41.5 (-110)
- Battlehawks-Brahmas Over 42 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
D.C. Defenders vs. Arlington Renegades
Saturday, April 13, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Choctaw Stadium
The Defenders had to fight back for a late win last week, but can they avenge their title game loss to the Renegades, the defending XFL champions who are staring down an 0-3 start?
The game has been too close to call with a virtual pick ‘em on the spread right now. That’s why we are looking at the over 43.5 points as these teams played some very high-scoring games last year.
Defenders: Crank Up the Offense?
On their way to a 9-1 record last year, the D.C. Defenders had the best offense in the XFL led by quarterback Jordan Ta’amu, the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year.
But things have not been as efficient this year. Ta’amu is barely completing over half of his passes, and he’s averaging just 5.7 yards per pass attempt.
The Defenders had great balance last year, but this season, they are throwing the ball more than anyone, not getting chunk plays, and their running game is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (next to last).
Maybe Arlington will bring out their best this week. The Renegades have allowed 741 yards in 2 games this year, which is almost 200 more yards than the next-closest defense. Arlington is also allowing a league-worst 27 points per game.
Renegades: Trust the Offense?
While Arlington’s defense has been a letdown, it also has faced stiff competition from the Stallions (best overall team) and Battlehawks (a top quarterback in A.J. McCarron). It’s not like the Defenders make it any easier this week, but the Defenders are also not playing as well as they were a year ago.
But Arlington should not feel bad about how the offense has performed. Luis Perez has done a good job at quarterback and even leads the UFL with 7.8 yards per pass attempt. He’s converting on 3rd down, he’s not turning it over much, and he is doing this with a marginal rushing attack.
The Defenders also have a league-low 2 sacks, so the pass protection might be fine this week. It’s a good game for Arlington to score into the 20s or more. Maybe the defense can get a late stop this time around.
The Pick
Too close to call on the winner, but we do like the over as both teams are more than capable of scoring into the 20s. Last year, their games ended 28-26 and 35-26. Those were late-season matches with the teams humming better offensively than they are in this sluggish start to the 2024 UFL season, but this is also one the few matchups where both starting quarterbacks return from 2023.
We’ll trust Ta’amu and Perez to put on a show and hit the over 43.5 points at -110 betting odds for our first pick.
UFL Pick: Over 43.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Memphis Showboats vs. Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, April 13, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Protective Stadium
The Stallions can start 3-0 with a home win as a 7-point favorite against the Showboats this week. The game has a total of 41.5 points, and our eyes are on that under in a game between a top defense (Birmingham) and a bottom offense (Memphis).
Memphis: Offense Is the Pits
It takes some real effort to struggle dramatically at running and passing on offense. Usually, even the worst passing team or worst running team can at least be adequate at the other style of offense. Something has to work or else you’re looking at one of the worst offenses in professional football.
Well, the Showboats are off to that kind of start as their offense just doesn’t create any big plays. They average 5.2 yards per pass (worst in the UFL) and they average 2.9 yards per rush (worst in the UFL).
We could see issues in Week 1 when Case Cookus had the team’s best run of the game. You could at least explain the poor rushing effort as a function of the offensive line not getting off to a good start. But the passing game needs to start finding some chunk plays.
The only thing keeping Memphis alive has been a 48.5% conversion rate on 3rd down, the 2nd-highest in the league. But if that regresses as you expect it to, they’re going to be punting and turning the ball over more.
Stallions Prove Old Football Still Works
Leave it up to a spring football league in 2024 to show that running the ball very well and playing great defense still works as a championship formula. The Stallions were the best team in both the XFL and USFL in recent years, and they got the job done with different quarterbacks in winning the last 2 championships.
Now they are doing it with a 2-quarterback offense as Adrien Martinez can run and Matt Corral can hit some big plays with his arm. But the real power of the offense right now is the running game, which blows the rest of the UFL away as Skip Holtz’s bunch is on top of things right away once again.
Throw in a great defense that allows the fewest yards and points (13.5 per game) in the UFL, and this team has the right stuff to win it again.
The Pick
While Birmingham continues to win, it was only a 20-13 win last week against Michigan. The passing game is not fully clicking yet, and running the ball is a great way to shrink the game and ultimately the score. Memphis also possesses the ball a lot, so this could be a game with fewer drives and a lower score given the mismatch of Birmingham’s defense and the Memphis offense.
We’ll trust the lack of big plays to continue for Memphis, and while Birmingham should win again, we like the under here as the best bet.
UFL Pick: Under 41.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
St. Louis Battlehawks vs. San Antonio Brahmas
Sunday, April 14, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Alamodome
Having a top quarterback always helps in football, and A.J. McCarron’s presence in the XFL and now UFL is further proof of that. He led several comeback wins last year for St. Louis, and he did it again last week against Arlington in a 27-24 win on a final second field goal.
But the Brahmas have been playing well on both sides of the ball and can go 3-0 with a win here. The Battlehawks are a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 42 points.
We are looking at the total for the final game of the weekend.
St. Louis Back to Doing 2023 Things
The Battlehawks were the best team to miss the playoffs in the XFL last year with their 7-3 record. A big part of that was A.J. McCarron’s success at leading a prolific passing game behind a shaky offensive line.
He is back to his old tricks this year, leading a comeback win against Arlington last week. He passed for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception in the 27-24 win, the highest-scoring UFL game so far.
The Battlehawks also have a running game as their 172 rushing yards are No. 2 in the league. They average 4.5 yards per carry, which is also the 2nd-highest average in the league behind only the Stallions, who are on another level when it comes to running the ball right now.
McCarron gives the Battlehawks an edge in most games, but he will be dueling with another quarterback that has been playing solid football this year.
San Antonio’s Improvement
We knew San Antonio’s defense would see a boost with legend Wade Phillips coming in as the new head coach. But the offensive improvement has also been key to the 2-0 start.
New quarterback Chase Garbers leads the UFL with 5 touchdown passes. His 73.8% completion percentage is also tops in the league. His 443 passing yards are just 21 yards behind McCarron’s league-high 464 passing yards.
The only area of concern for San Antonio is on 3rd down where they are just 4-for-19 (21.1%) at converting, easily the worst in the league. Part of this is from not having a strong running game yet. But if they continue having success through the air and protecting the ball, that number should regress to the mean and improve.
The Pick
This has a good chance to be the best game of Week 3. If both quarterbacks show up, you are looking at a good chance to see both teams hit 20 points, and since there are no ties in the UFL, someone should help it go over 42 points to close out the week.
UFL Pick: Over 42 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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