The UFL came out firing with points in Week 3, and the Week 4 schedule has more interesting matchups as the teams start to separate from one another.
We’ll see if the teams can keep up the scoring from Week 3 as every winning team scored at least 29 points in by far the highest-scoring week of UFL action yet. Every game hit the over with at least 47 points scored in each, and 3-of-4 games had over 53.5 points.
We made our best bets for Week 4’s Saturday triple-header below.
Picks Summary
- Showboats-Battlehawks Over 45.5 Points (-110)
- Defenders-Stallions Over 47 Points (-110)
- Brahmas -1 (-105)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Memphis Showboats vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Saturday, April 20, 2024 – 12:30 PM ET at The Dome at America’s Center
The Battlehawks have won 2 in a row to pull into a 3-way tie in the XFL conference with San Antonio and D.C. also at 2-1. They’ll have a good shot to win another as a 7-point favorite against Memphis with a total of 45.5 points.
We are looking at that total.
Memphis Could Perk Up vs. St. Louis
The Showboats have been one of the roughest offenses in the league so far with just 17.0 points per game scored, a single point ahead of the worst-scoring team in the league (Houston).
A big problem for Memphis has been protection as they have taken a league-high 14 sacks. The good news is St. Louis only has 4 sacks on defense, the 2nd-lowest total in the league.
The Battlehawks are also middle of the pack in yards and points allowed this year, and they gave up 24 points last week. They have also allowed opponents to convert 50% of the time on 3rd down to extend drives.
If Memphis is going to get back in the race, it needs to find a way to score more points as we know the Battlehawks should score a decent amount at home this week.
Battlehawks: Big Game Coming for A.J. McCarron?
The Battlehawks are doing well thanks to the season A.J. McCarron is having at quarterback. He is 3rd in passing yards (616), 2nd in passing touchdowns (5), and he has yet to throw an interception.
McCarron gets an excellent matchup this week as no pass defense allows more yards or a higher yards per attempt than Memphis. He should post his best stat line of the season.
But we also need to acknowledge how well St. Louis has been running the football. They don’t do it that often with McCarron’s passing, but the Battlehawks are 2nd in the UFL with 285 rushing yards despite ranking next to last in carries. That’s why they average 5.0 yards per carry, the highest average in the UFL.
The Pick
You give a top-flight quarterback a running game and a struggling pass defense, and he should put up plenty of points. St. Louis could be ready to stack 30-point games this week. But Memphis is also capable of dropping at least 17 points to help this get over 45.5 points in what should be one of the weekend’s higher-scoring games.
UFL Pick: Over 45.5 (-110) at Bet365
DC Defenders vs. Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, April 20, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Protective Stadium
The Defenders and Stallions were the best teams in the regular season last year in the XFL and USFL respectively. But Birmingham has left little doubt about who is the best team in the UFL right now with a 3-0 record and plenty of great statistics on both sides of the ball.
The Stallions are a 9-point favorite, the highest in any game this season, and the total is 47 points, another high mark. Is a shootout about to go down here?
Defenders Face Stiff Test
The Defenders have not found scoring to come as easily as it did last year when their passing and running games were both so efficient behind Offensive Player of the Year Jordan Ta’amu.
This year, the Defenders are only 6th in yards per pass (5.8) and 5th in yards per rush (3.6). They are also just 6th in points scored, kicking more field goals (8) than they have scored touchdowns (6).
The Stallions have the No. 1 defense and have played well on that side of the ball. The Defenders are going to have to grind out another game like they did last week when they erased a 10-point deficit late against Arlington to win 29-28.
Stallions’ Latest Quarterback Success Story
We’re not ready to compare coach Skip Holtz to Joe Gibbs of Washington fame just yet, but he is trying to win a 3rd-straight championship with another different quarterback in the regular season, an impressive feat in football when that’s the most important position.
The Stallions have already started 2 different quarterbacks this year. Adrian Martinez got the call last week and all he did was have arguably the best game by any UFL quarterback this season with 334 passing yards, 44 rushing yards (team-high), and 3 total touchdowns.
He’ll love playing a D.C. defense that has struggled this year. The Stallions also usually run the ball well and still lead the UFL by a wide margin with 432 rushing yards – no one else has more than 285 yards.
The Pick
We know the Defenders often get involved in high-scoring games where both teams score over 27 points. That may not happen here just because of how good the Birmingham defense has been, but the offense is also in a great position to dominate the Defenders on defense.
You could see this being a 31-17 game, won by Birmingham again, that hits the over at -110 UFL odds.
UFL Pick: Over 47 (-110) at Bet365
Michigan Panthers vs. San Antonio Brahmas
Saturday, April 20, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Alamodome
This battle of 2-1 teams also sees both teams with a plus-9 scoring differential. With things so close, it is not a surprise to see this one a pick ‘em at top-rated sportsbooks and with the Brahmas as a small 1-point favorite at others. The total is 41.5 points, the lowest in Week 4.
We explain why we think the Brahmas are going to take this one at home.
Michigan Found Its Offense in Week 3
The Michigan offense was one of the biggest disappointments through the first 2 games this season, but things started to click in Week 3 against Houston. Quarterback E.J. Perry had been struggling with picks and sacks, but last week, he completed 16-of-19 passes for 208 yards, and he ran for 60 yards and another 2 scores in by far his best game this season.
The Panthers still didn’t get great rush support from the non-quarterback positions as they had 27 carries for 64 yards when you take away Perry’s contributions. But if he is going to start being that kind of efficient dual threat for this offense, then it will be a dangerous one to defend.
But we also think the Houston defense had a lot to do with it as that unit has struggled all season. Remember, the Panthers were the offense that was relying on 60-yard field goals in Weeks 1-2. Kicker Jake Bates only had to show off with a 55-yard field goal against Houston. He is a weapon, but the team has to show Perry can be a consistent quarterback first.
San Antonio’s Redemption
The Brahmas blew a shot to move to 3-0 last week, losing 31-24 to the Battlehawks. Quarterback Chase Garbers has been good and still leads the UFL with 6 touchdown passes while only throwing 1 interception and taking 3 sacks. But he had a rough game last week, finishing 27-of-41 for just 143 yards.
Where were the big plays? Almost as bad, the running game was held to 102 yards on 28 carries (3.6 yards per carry). The Brahmas were grinding away all day against St. Louis and it just wasn’t enough despite San Antonio finishing with 7 more yards, 1 fewer turnover, and 3 fewer penalties.
Garbers needs to bounce back against a Michigan pass defense that has been stingy and limited big plays this year. But San Antonio is No. 3 with 23.7 points per game this season.
The Pick
The Brahmas have scored a league-high 10 touchdowns while only kicking a league-low 2 field goals. Still, that shows this offense can finish drives in the end zone, and after a hiccup last week against St. Louis, look for better play from Garbers and the offense.
It should be a tight game, but we like the Brahmas to prevail at home and bring Perry back down to earth after his huge Week 3 performance.
UFL Pick: Brahmas -1 (-105) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
