We are halfway through the UFL’s 2024 regular season, and there is still an undefeated team (5-0 Stallions) just as there is still a winless team (0-5 Renegades).
Fortunately, they are not facing each other this week, but the spreads at top-rated sportsbooks are still the largest of the season in half of the games this week after a lot of blowouts in Week 5. Every game was decided by at least 10 points last week.
Based on our UFL odds, we included our best bets for the Week 6 slate below.
Picks Summary
- Stallions-Showboats Over 43 Points (-110)
- Roughnecks-Battlehawks Under 47 Points (-110)
- Renegades +4 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Arlington Renegades vs. Michigan Panthers
Sunday, May 05, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Ford Field
The winless Renegades (0-5) will give it another shot in Michigan where the Panthers are now 3-2 after a 35-18 win over Memphis last week.
The Panthers are a 4-point home favorite with a total of 42 points. We are looking at the spread for this one.
Are the Renegades Mailing It in Now?
Earlier this season, the Renegades had some tough losses, but they were still high-scoring games and quarterback Luis Perez was having a quality season. Stay the course, face some easier teams on the schedule and the wins should have come eventually.
Yet, in recent weeks, the Renegades seem to be faltering and getting worse. They lost a 17-9 clunker to the Roughnecks in Week 4, then they fell 25-15 to San Antonio last week despite getting 3 takeaways on defense.
However, Arlington only turned those takeaways into 3 points. Perez had a better game than he did in Week 4 as he didn’t throw any interceptions, but the Renegades were 3-for-14 on 3rd down and 0-for-4 in the red zone. Situational football has failed them.
Perez needs to get back to where he was in the first 3 weeks when Arlington was scoring over 20 points per game and doing great on 3rd down. The talent is there to get it done.
Michigan Is Hard to Trust
The Panthers won 35-18 last week against Memphis despite having to start a backup quarterback. Still, if we are being honest, a backup quarterback is probably closer in talent to the starter on most of these UFL teams than they would be at the NFL level.
Quarterback was also an issue for Michigan earlier this season with too many sacks and turnovers from E.J. Perry. However, whether it is Perry or Danny Etling at quarterback, the line is going to have to play better as Michigan has allowed 17 sacks, the 2nd most in the UFL this year.
Yet, Michigan is that team that needed 60-yard field goals earlier in the season to hang in there with teams. They are high variance, so losing at home to a 0-5 team would not be out of reason for them.
The Pick
The teams to trust right now in the UFL are the Stallions and Battlehawks. The Panthers are only the 4th team with a winning record as of Week 6, but they are the least trustworthy one as they are not strong on either side of the ball. Great kicker, though.
Michigan may pull this game out late as we expect at least 1 close game this weekend. Still, we’ll trust the Renegades to keep it close and cover the spread.
UFL Pick: Renegades +4 (-110) at Bet365
Birmingham Stallions vs. Memphis Showboats
Saturday, May 04, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
The Stallions continue to roll as they seek a 3rd-straight championship. They are an 11.5-point road favorite in Memphis, coming off a 35-18 loss to Michigan, with a total of 43 points.
We are looking at the total.
Stallions Should Keep Rolling
The Stallions are clicking in every way you want to see offensively:
- Birmingham leads the UFL with 1,837 yards of offense – no other team is above 1,500 yards.
- The Stallions have a league-high 775 rushing yards – that’s 220 yards more than the next-closest offense.
- Birmingham’s 26.4 points per game is only behind St. Louis (30.2).
- The Stallions average 14.2 yards per pass completion – no other passing game is higher than 10.8 yards per completion.
- The Stallions average a league-high 8.1 yards per pass attempt – no other team is higher than 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
- The Stallions lead the UFL with 105 1st downs.
- The Stallions lead the UFL by converting 47.2% of the time on 3rd down.
Even better, the Stallions have shown they can do this with 2 different starting quarterbacks (Matt Corral and Adrian Martinez). They may be better off with Martinez, as his rushing ability is a major weapon too. He rushed for 138 yards last week to lead the team in a 32-9 win over Houston.
Showboats Must Crack a Tough Defense
The Showboats have their hands full with the Birmingham offense, but Memphis also has to find a way to score against this No. 1 scoring defense that only allows 13.6 points per game.
However, we think Memphis might be able to crack 14 points in this game. Troy Williams started at quarterback last week instead of Case Cookus. Things were still not great, but Williams threw for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns.
His problem was throwing a few picks as the Showboats turned the ball over 4 times in their 35-18 loss to Michigan. They can’t afford to do that against the Stallions, who are actually tied with the Showboats for a league-high 8 takeaways on defense.
The Pick
If the Showboats gave up 35 points to Michigan with a backup quarterback last week, it’s rough to think about what number Birmingham might put up this Saturday. The Stallions are absolutely capable of scoring 31 points again this week.
Meanwhile, there is reason to think the Showboats will continue to abandon the run and stick to the pass, which even if it includes garbage time, to get to 14 points or more. That should be enough to hit the over in this matchup that may not be close at all with Birmingham ranked No. 1 in scoring differential and Memphis ranked dead last.
UFL Pick: Over 43 (-110) at Bet365
Houston Roughnecks vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Saturday, May 04, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at The Dome
The Roughnecks just lost 32-9 to the best team in Birmingham. Now they have to go on the road and face a tough St. Louis team that just pounded D.C. 45-12 on the road last week. Good luck to the 1-4 team.
The Battlehawks are a 12.5-point favorite, the biggest spread of the UFL season. Still, we are looking at the total of 47 points.
Bump in the Road for Houston’s Defense
The Roughnecks had shown some signs of defensive improvement, but the Stallions made them look silly last week with a quarterback (Adrian Martinez) rushing for well over 100 yards.
However, that’s Birmingham, the most balanced offense around. The Battlehawks are also balanced, but they attack a bit differently with A.J. McCarron dinking and dunking successfully as he’s supported with a strong running game that averages 4.9 yards per carry (tied with Birmingham for the No. 1 ranking).
Yet, McCarron is only averaging 6.5 yards per pass attempt, which usually isn’t aligned with a No. 1 scoring offense and great quarterback play. However, he is making it work, as he’s only thrown 1 interception all season (best rate in the league) and he’s delivered in big moments.
If Houston can at least make McCarron earn it without giving up the big plays, then maybe the Roughnecks have a chance in keeping this hot offense under 28 points this week.
Houston’s Rough Offense
The other problem the Roughnecks have is their offense against what is a surging defense in St. Louis. The Battlehawks are allowing a league-low 4.8 yards per pass attempt while they’ve intercepted a league-high 6 passes. That sounds like a championship-winning kind of defense that could frustrate a team like Birmingham with their 2-quarterback system in the UFL Championship Game in June.
However, we are not there yet. The Battlehawks only have to defend the Roughnecks on offense this week, and the Roughnecks average a league-low 15.2 points per game.
The passing numbers for Houston are not abysmal, but they’re also not very good for quarterback Reid Sinnett. He has thrown 4 touchdowns to 2 interceptions and averages a ho-hum 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
Still, it’s hard for him to hit big plays with the running game giving Houston nothing all year. The Roughnecks have a league-low 257 rushing yards and often play from behind.
This week is unlikely to be any different.
The Pick
Your classic matchup of the highest-scoring team against the lowest-scoring team. The Battlehawks are also looking like the better defense now too, so the spread is certainly a pick to consider here.
However, we like the under 47 points even if the Battlehawks nearly covered that themselves last week with 45 points. However, look for some regression there while the defense steps up against a really bad Houston defense and continues their climb on that side of the ball.
UFL Pick: Under 47 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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