We’ve got two games on tonight’s NBA Playoff slate! Interestingly enough, the NBA will have the Pacers and Cavaliers begin the second round of the NBA Playoffs before the Warriors and Rockets conclude the first round of the playoffs in a Game 7 tonight.
Either way, there’s value on the board. I asked the AI Model for its two favorite plays and wrote about them below.
The Picks
- Evan Mobley Under 9.5 Rebounds (-109)
- Jimmy Butler Under 24.5 Points (-130)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, May 04, 2025 – 06:00 PM EDT at Rocket Arena
The AI Model thinks Evan Mobley will finish with 7.194 rebounds in tonight’s game for the Cavaliers. Yet, his consensus line is currently at 9.5, with the under at -109. That’s a top play for tonight.
Can Mobley Provide 10+ Rebounds?
Evan Mobley has earned at least ten rebounds in 51% of games this season. However, he’s only earned at least ten rebounds in one of his last five games. He’s also hit this line in just three of his last ten games and 45% of his last 20 games.
Mobley hasn’t been consistent on the glass.
Meanwhile, he’ll face an Indiana defense that ranks 25th in rebounds allowed to power forwards. That all sounds great for Mobley. However, Mobley hasn’t earned more than 13 rebound chances in four consecutive games. He’d need to grab ten rebounds on just 13 rebound chances on average.
That’s a lot to ask from Mobley. In those last four games, Mobley has accumulated no more than seven rebounds in any of those games.
He’ll need 16+ rebound chances even to have a chance at gaining ten rebounds. Even then, it could still be difficult against this Indiana defense.
Less Mobley, More Money
Mobley has also averaged 32.3 minutes per game for the Cavaliers over the last ten games. However, he does not play all the minutes, especially since Cleveland is comfortable with its depth.
The more Mobley spends on the bench, the better.
I’ll rock with the AI Model and take Mobley to go Under 9.5 rebounds. He’s struggled with this number in the playoffs so far, and that should continue against the Pacers. Yes, even with the Pacers not being nearly as good on the defensive glass this season.
Thank the AI Model when this one hits!
NBA Pick: Evan Mobley Under 9.5 Rebounds (-109) at Caesars Sportsbook
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, May 04, 2025 – 08:30 PM EDT at Toyota Center
The AI Model believes Jimmy Butler will score just 17.42 points in tonight’s ball game. Yet, Butler’s consensus prop is stuck at 23.5, with the under at -130. That’s one of the best plays you’ll see on the board tonight.
Can Jimmy Butler Sustain Success?
Jimmy Butler missed a game due to injury and was removed from a game due to injury in this Rockets-Warriors first-round playoff matchup.
However, in the games where he’s finished, Butler has scored at least 25 points in three of the four games.
It’s just hard to expect that from Butler in a Game 7 against the Rockets. After all, the Rockets still rank second in the NBA in points allowed to small forwards this season.
The Rockets also rank first in three-point makes from small forwards and are third in the NBA in field goals made from small forwards this season.
Butler’s Buckets Getting Harder to Come By
The Rockets won’t give anything easy to Butler.
Meanwhile, Butler has shot 41% or below in two consecutive games. He’s also made just one three in his last two games against the Rockets. He padded his stats with many trips to the foul line in Game 6.
But even then, the Rockets rank 12th in free throws made to small forwards, which is still an above-average rate.
It’s hard to trust Butler, who has a low shooting percentage lately. He’ll likely have fewer trips to the foul line against the Rockets’ defense tonight.
Let’s take Butler to go Under 24.5 points using the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Jimmy Butler Under 24.5 Points (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
