The Los Angeles Clippers will battle the Denver Nuggets in a Game 7 for all of the marbles. Whoever wins will move on to the second round. However, the team that loses will watch their season conclude tonight.
Ultimately, the Nuggets will have a home-court advantage and will be at home tonight in this elimination game.
The Nuggets have been more efficient on offense in this series, but the Clippers have forced more turnovers per game. The Nuggets are also playing behind interim head coach David Adelman after firing their head coach late in the season. That could play a role in this game. After all, Los Angeles’ head coach, Ty Lue, is one of the best coaches at making in-game adjustments. He could end up coaching laps around an inexperienced Adelman.
With that out of the way, I used the AI Model to find some of the best value bets in this game. Using the AI Model, I’ve added a spread, total, and player prop to consider for this matchup below. Let’s have a night!
The AI Model believes the Clippers will lose to the Nuggets by one point, 104-103. However, at Caesars, you can find the Clippers at +1.5. They’d cover in that scenario. Plus, the total is expected to reach 207, and the consensus line is 206. The over is another top-tier play using the AI Model.
In addition, Ivica Zubac is expected to add 9.429 rebounds in tonight’s game. Yet, his rebound total is stuck at 11.5, with the under at -108. That’s the third and final play to consider for tonight’s Game 7.
The Picks
- Clippers +1.5 (-110) at Caesars
- Over 206 (-110) at Caesars
- Ivica Zubac Under 11.5 Rebounds (-108)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Saturday, May 3, 2025 – 7:30 PM EDT at Ball Arena
The Clippers Are Showing Up Offensively
The Los Angeles Clippers are usually known for their defense. However, the offense has stepped up, scoring 118.2 points per 100 possessions in this series.
The Clippers have also shot a 56.1% effective field goal percentage, while turning the ball over just 12.1% of the time.
The Clippers haven’t dominated the offensive glass and likely won’t see the foul line much in Game 7 on the road. But as long as Los Angeles limits turnovers and continues to shoot well, they’ll be fine.
Denver Must Dominate The Glass
The Denver Nuggets have only scored 115.7 points per 100 possessions. They’ve shot an effective field goal percentage of 54.8% but have also turned the ball over 14.6% of the time.
Ultimately, Denver is better on the offensive glass, adding 33.2% of rebounds in this series. However, with more turnovers come fewer opportunities for second-chance points.
Beyond that, the Clippers are just as good as the Nuggets at limiting foul shots.
The Nuggets will succeed on the offensive glass, but the turnovers could hurt them in this game.
NBA Pick: Clippers +1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Don’t Count On Ivica Zubac
Ivica Zubac has become one of the best rebounders in the NBA. However, he’s added just 11 rebounds in his last two games combined. Tonight’s prop is currently at 11.5, meaning he’d need 12 rebounds in tonight’s game to cover.
Zubac has typically earned more than 20 rebound chances per game. However, in three of his last four games, he’s earned no more than 17 rebound chances. The Nuggets rank 11th in rebounds allowed to centers, which is still above average. They’ve got a good game plan to contain Zubac on the glass, which is why Los Angeles has struggled to earn offensive rebounds throughout the series.
NBA Pick: Ivica Zubac Under 11.5 Rebounds (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook
Take a Look at The Total and Consider a Parlay
Per my analysis and the AI Model, the Clippers should be able to survive the Nuggets in tonight’s Game 7 on the road. The Over also makes sense, as both teams have shot very well from the floor.
Meanwhile, Zubac has struggled on the glass and will, as a result, give up second-chance points to the Nuggets.
These three bets could be added as a same-game parlay if you’d like to take on more risk.
NBA Pick: Over 206 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-GAMBLER
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
