As of this writing, we are less than a week from the 150th running of the Preakness Stakes. It used to be that over 70 percent of the Kentucky Derby field would move forward to the second leg of the Triple Crown. That has completely changed, with less than 20 percent doing so now, and that figure will be too high, it seems right now.
Derby winner Sovereignty won’t be making the trip to Maryland, assuring no Triple Crown chase. Reports over this past weekend have expected favorite, Journalism, will not decide until just hours before the gate draw on Monday evening. Even if Journalism does enter, that would mean only three out of 19 horses moving to the next big race, with American Promise and Sandman.
Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, here is a look at the chalk, contenders, long shots and pretenders for this week’s Preakness at this time.
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The (Presumed) Favorite
Journalism (6-5 odds)
If trainer Michael McCarthy gives the go-ahead, he’s the horse to beat.
Journalism nearly took the Derby wire-to-wire before being caught late by Sovereignty. The Santa Anita Derby champ has class, speed and the kind of tactical versatility that plays well at Pimlico. All eyes will be on him if he’s in the starting gate, coming off speed ratings of 102-102-108.
Contenders
Goal Oriented (5-1)
Trainer Bob Baffert’s lone entry (with Rodriguez out), Goal Oriented, won a sharp allowance race on Derby Day. He’s undefeated in his last two starts and brings that Baffert magic, with eight Preakness wins.
A lightly raced colt with upside and pedigree, Goal Oriented is likely to take plenty of betting action.
Clever Again (8-1)
The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Clever Again’s story is one of resilience.
After a long layoff due to injury, he’s returned strong this spring with two wins, including a stakes score and a blazing 101-speed figure. Clever Again is sure to draw attention from horse bettors.
River Thames (8-1)
This colt started hot at Gulfstream in Florida, then challenged Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth race. He backed that up with a solid third in the Blue Grass Stakes. He didn’t run in the Derby, so he comes to Pimlico rested and fresh, which can be dangerous in the Preakness.
Longshots
American Promise (12-1)
A Derby flop (he finished 16th), don’t count American Promise out just yet.
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas still sees a horse with a 95-speed rating two races back, and he’s not showing any hesitation putting American Promise back in the spotlight. Can he rebound? It’s not impossible with a much smaller field.
Sandman (TBD)
Trainer Mark Casse says Sandman bounced out well after Derby experience, and he’s hoping for a better result than 7th here.
Griffin Johnson is one of the internet’s most popular influencers, and as a 2.5% owner in Sandman (hence the Metallica connection), he brought attention to this horse. Sandman with a 99-speed rating two races ago, hopes to “Seek and Destroy” at Pimlico.
Gosger (20-1)
The Lexington Stakes winner has been working well, but might lack the top-end speed needed against this group. Sired by Derby winner Nyquist, he’s got the bloodlines, just not the resume to match the favorites here.
Pretenders
Bullard (TBD)
Bullard hasn’t been confirmed for the field, but he’s expected to participate.
After a win in the Bob Hope Stakes last fall, he’s cooled off, including a fifth-place effort in the Lexington. He’ll need to take a big step forward to contend here.
Pay Billy (30-1)
It’s almost tradition to see a Maryland-bred longshot take a stab at the Preakness, though it’s been 41 years since a state-born horse won this event.
Pay Billy fits the bill this year. He hasn’t faced top-level competition, but he gets his shot in front of a home crowd, which will attract local betting action.
Heart of Honor (30-1)
Fresh off a flight from Great Britain, this UAE Derby runner-up is the international entry this year. In truth, it’s a surprise Heart of Honor made the journey since UAE winner Admore Daytona was dead last at Churchill two weeks ago.
Don’t forget to check out our updated information for this big race once the positions are drawn for who comes out of what gate for the Preakness.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
