The Rose Bowl will feature the early game of the College Football Playoff semifinals as No. 1 Michigan and No. 4 Alabama will lock horns in what should be an epic clash between two of the most iconic programs in college football history.
Let’s check out the college football odds board as we break down this contest between the class of the SEC and the pride of the Big Ten and keep cashing our NCAAF picks!
Top Pick
- Alabama ML (+105) at Bet365
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines
Monday, January 01, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at Rose Bowl
Stat Trifecta
- Alabama is 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
- Alabama is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against a Big Ten opponent.
- Michigan is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against an SEC opponent.
Bama Crowned SEC Champs
In only their second game of the season, Alabama was upset by Texas, 34-24, in front of a stunned home crowd and failed their backers as 7-point home favorites. Little did anyone know that the Longhorns would ultimately land as the No. 3 seed in the CFP three months later.
But as bitter as that loss was, Nick Saban’s charges did not quit and went on to win their next 11 games including a seismic victory over their bitter rivals from Georgia in the SEC Championship. The Bulldogs had been at the very top of the rankings since the opening week and were a lock to be the No. 1 seed in the CFP had they dispatched the Tide in the conference title game.
However, Alabama had different plans and shocked the Dawgs with a 27-24 win and bounced them from their throne atop the CFP seedings to No. 6 in the nation. Now, instead of Georgia gunning for their third consecutive national championship, they will be on the outside looking in on the CFP while Bama gets an opportunity to knock off the top dog, Michigan, in a Rose Bowl battle.
Michigan Remains Undefeated
Michigan has been a juggernaut over the past several years and enjoyed their second consecutive undefeated season and will try to improve upon their one-and-done loss to TCU last year.
Michigan’s most impressive win this year occurred against their ancient rival, Ohio State, in their annual tussle, dubbed The Game, in which they drew away to a 30-24 win and covered as 3-point home chalk in their penultimate game of the season.
That victory set up a Big Ten title tilt against Iowa and its renownedly stingy defense. But after the win over the Buckeyes, the conference championship was anticlimactic as Michigan barely broke a sweat in their 26-0 shutout of the Hawkeyes.
The Verdict
If there is one game to circle on your bowl calendar, it’s this one. This will be a dandy and the winner will be one step closer to championship glory. Let’s analyze these offenses below.
Alabama ranks:
- – 19th in points (34.9/game)
- – 59th in passing (228.5/game)
- – 47th in rushing (172.7/game)
Michigan ranks:
- – 13th in points (36.7/game)
- – 73rd in passing (218.8/game)
- – 61st in rushing (161.8/game)
These are rather pedestrian passing and rushing numbers but because their respective defenses are opportunistic and often pin back opposing offenses, it allows excellent field position for their offenses. This is why we see Michigan ranked 13th and Alabama ranked 19th in scoring.
Speaking of defenses, Michigan is ranked No. 1 in the nation, allowing just 9.5 points per game while Alabama checks in as the No. 17 defense, surrendering 18.4 points per game.
Michigan’s pass defense is ranked 2nd while its run-stop unit checks in at No. 6. Alabama is not far behind as its pass D is ranked 18th and its run defense is ranked 32nd.
The QBs and Nick Saban’s Influence
Now that you can see the metrics on these teams it becomes clear why the oddsmakers view this matchup as pretty much of a tossup. However, what we need to consider is the evolution of Bama quarterback Jalen Milroe, who tossed three picks after his first three games and has tossed only two the rest of the way.
And while I have no issue with Michigan quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, we should note he has only one touchdown pass over his last five games. He will have to do better than that if the Wolverines are to have any chance against the Tide.
But I don’t think he will. I believe Nick Saban is the best college coach in history, which means he will be the best head coach on that Rose Bowl field on New Year’s Day. And Saban will undeniably have a defensive scheme that will rattle McCarthy and keep him off the scoreboard.
The Pick
The oddsmakers are giving us 1½ points, but the Tide won’t need it as they will win this one outright. Play Bama on the moneyline and cash a ticket.
NCAAF Pick: Alabama ML (+105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
