The top sportsbooks have released their odds for Friday’s college football Week 3 game between Arizona and Kansas State.
For your best bet, I recommend backing Kansas State. Let’s break down the NCAAF odds from top sportsbooks to help you cash in on your picks and predictions.
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NCAAF Pick
- Kansas State -7 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Arizona Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Friday, September 13, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Arizona’s Defensive Regression
Last year, Arizona would have looked like a strong candidate to challenge the characteristically run-heavy Kansas State.
Arizona ranked 26th in run defense. This year is a new year, however. So far, these inhabitants of the Southwest rank 82nd in run defense. They are allowing 141.5 rushing yards per game.
It’s not like they have been facing strong competition: New Mexico, their first opponent, was a 28-point underdog; their most recent opponent, Northern Arizona, was a 37.5-point underdog.
Arizona supporters might insist that too few games have taken place: they might suggest that considering what Arizona did last season, we should maintain faith in the quality of Arizona’s run defense.
My argument will be that, during the offseason, Arizona underwent critical changes that explain why its run defense has declined so drastically, and that justify the expectation that its run defense will continue to suffer.
Arizona’s Critical Changes
Arizona lost its coaching staff during the offseason – its leadership is quite new. Its head coach is new. Moreover, its defensive coordinator is new.
Johnny Nansen, Arizona’s defensive coordinator last season, is irreplaceable. Nansen’s impact largely explains why Arizona was such a strong team last year. There is a reason why a top-level team like Texas wanted him – and he could not refuse such an offer.
He was a master at identifying what opposing offenses wanted to do, at devising specific packages and other plans designed to stop what opposing offenses wanted to do, and at getting his players to practice and become experts at executing his plans.
So, while Arizona supporters will want to find optimism in the fact that there is “continuity” in its defense – Arizona promoted its analyst to the role of defensive coordinator in place of the departed Nansen – the reality is that this optimism is nonsensical.
There is no “continuity,” because Nansen was uniquely good at what he did. In a single year, he turned Arizona from one of the very worst rush defenses into one of the best.
Without him, the inhabitants of the Southwest are irreparably worse off now.
Issues With The Front Seven
Arizona’s new defensive coordinator has a hard job with the personnel that he has to work with.
This team’s first two games show that the defensive line is struggling to contain opposing mobile quarterbacks.
In the first game of the season, New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier ran for 130 yards on 15 carries. Dampier’s success on the ground was consistent: none of his runs went for more than 26 yards.
He had never, in his career, run for more than 71 yards in a game, so his performance against Arizona this year was unique, attesting to the low quality of the latter’s run defense.
Arizona’s linebackers are contributing to its general weakness against the run. They have one good linebacker but struggle to find more quality beyond the one guy.
Last year, they used a rotation of linebackers but failed to find satisfaction with any of them. Hyped-up recruits, such as Justin Flowe, have not panned out, as Flowe’s low performance grades indicate.
Linebackers on this team find themselves in poor position and for various reasons – poor tackling is another – are struggling to get stops.
Avery Johnson
New Mexico was able to score 39 points against Arizona without the benefit of a strong passing attack – the Lobos’ quarterback threw two interceptions and failed to complete 60 percent of his passes.
The Lobos flourished offensively with the success of its rush attack.
Kansas State can do the exact same thing, and it will likely get a stronger passing performance from its quarterback, Avery Johnson.
Johnson improved his anticipation and his accuracy during the offseason. Reports from offseason practices attest to this improvement.
This improvement is also showing up in his season statistics. Most clearly, he is much more efficient, completing a significantly higher rate of his passes.
Kansas State’s Rush Attack
It will primarily be the rush attack of Kansas State that spurs the demise of Arizona’s defense.
Johnson is a characteristically speedy quarterback. He is a strong rusher: he is currently averaging seven YPC.
But K-State loves to run the ball most primarily because it is loaded at running back. Three different K-State running backs average 6.9 or more YPC. Kansas State’s best running back is DJ Giddens, who has run for 238 yards on 7.4 YPC.
Giddens will reliably find holes, burst through them, break tackles, and use his strength and shiftiness to make it hard to stop him in space.
Kansas State is averaging over 35 points per game largely because of Giddens’ rushing prowess.
Arizona’s Hope on Offense
On offense, Arizona will primarily want to rely on its pass attack. Based on pass-play percentages, it is one of the most pass-heavy teams.
Its reliance on passing the ball certainly makes sense because its best players are at quarterback and wide receiver.
In order to keep up with its opponent, Arizona will hope for its pass attack to thrive.
Kansas State’s Big Discovery
Kansas State will use pressure to inhibit Arizona’s quarterback from keeping his team competitive.
Last week, K-State was struggling to limit Tulane’s offense. At halftime, however, K-State’s defensive coordinator made adjustments.
The result of these adjustments was to limit Tulane to seven second-half points. K-State’s major adjustment was to intensify its pressure on Tulane’s quarterback.
This is exactly what will work against an Arizona team that, against lowly Northern Arizona, struggled mightily to protect its quarterback. Northern Arizona pressured him eight times in 29 drop-backs and sacked him twice.
Arizona’s offensive line has been dealing with injury-induced chemistry issues. Players are shuffling positions and stepping into new roles.
Even if Arizona’s injury situation were to improve, it will take time for chemistry to develop between the offensive linemen because they will need time to gel together.
Simply put, Arizona’s offensive line is in a mess right now, and now it has to face an opponent that is much stronger than the FCS team that derailed its offense in its most recent game.
Making use of more talented players and a stronger defensive coordinator than what Arizona has encountered in its opposition thus far, K-State sacked Tulane four times in the second half.
The likes of linebacker Austin Romaine poses a threat to opposing quarterbacks, and Joe Klanderman is the defensive coordinator who helps puts his K-State guys in a position to succeed.
K-State’s pass rush is supported by a good secondary spearheaded by All-Big 12 Honorable Mention Jacob Parrish, the team’s top cornerback.
Takeaway
Expect Kansas State to do what it wants to do offensively, which is run the ball – with its efficient group of running backs and its dangerous quarterback, who is also a much improved passer.
Conversely, Arizona will not remain competitive, because its pass attack won’t sustain itself in the face of K-State’s pressure, which has a strong cornerback group to support it.
NCAAF Pick: Kansas State -7 (-110) at Bet365
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