There’s just one game on the college football slate this weekend. It’s the annual Army-Navy game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Under has hit in nine of ten games. Will the Under hit on Saturday?
Picks Summary
- Navy +2.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Under 27.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen
Saturday, December 09, 2023 – 03:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium
The Army Black Knights will take on the Navy Midshipmen in the annual Army-Navy game on Saturday. This is the only college football game on the slate this weekend. However, the Heisman Award Ceremony will follow the game in the evening.
Army’s Current Form
Heading into this game, Army is on a three-game win streak. They just knocked off Air Force, Holy Cross, and Coastal Carolina in back-to-back-to-back weeks. That was impressive, with the Army sitting at 2-6 before those three games. The Black Knights haven’t even averaged 21 points per game offensively this year.
They’re playing behind Bryson Daily at quarterback. He’s thrown for 859 yards and has also rushed for another 817 yards. Daily has accounted for 13 touchdowns for the Army this season, which doesn’t really seem like a lot. He’s rushed the ball 188 times and has thrown the ball 106 times. But only has seven touchdowns.
The Black Knights have given rushing attempts and repetitions to many players this season. There were nine different players who scored a rushing touchdown, but only three players who managed to score a receiving touchdown.
Navy’s Lineup
The Navy has struggled with its tackling defensively. With the midshipmen facing a triple-option on defense, that’s not ideal. However, the Navy’s run defense has allowed only 121.91 yards per game, while the Army has given up 180 yards on the ground per game.
Army’s given up more yards in the run game, but has only allowed 181.91 yards in the passing game. Still, the Navy is likely going to pass the ball more. They’ve got two senior quarterbacks who are back after injuries sustained earlier in the year.
Navy’s expecting to have Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline back on the field for the final games of their collegiate career. Navy had to play Braxton Woodson, a freshman, in their most recent game against SMU. It’s way easier to trust seniors at quarterback in this game. Those two quarterbacks have experience not just in college football but in this particular game.
The Navy has used Alex Tecza as the lead runner this season. The fullback has earned 117 carries for 724 yards with five touchdowns. He’s averaged 6.2 yards per carry, which is extraordinary.
Meanwhile, the Army’s pass rush is very weak. If the Navy can add a wrinkle or two and catch the Army off guard with a pass play down the field using their senior quarterbacks, the Navy could escape with a win in this game.
That’s why I’ll gladly take the Navy at +2.5.
NCAAF Pick: Navy +2.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
What About The Total?
Historically, the Army-Navy game is a low-scoring event, however, the total has reached at least 30 points in three of the last four games.
Last year, the Army escaped with a win after earning only 153 total yards of offense. The Navy added 284 total yards of offense and lost in overtime, 20-17.
Again, the Navy’s likely going to add more offense in this game. Both teams will be run-heavy. However, the Midshipmen have more potential to throw the football with two seniors. Lavatai and Arline figure to get legitimate work in this game. Both will play and be factors in their final game.
Still, the Under has hit in nine of the last ten games. The lone Over was last year’s over-time matchup. However, both teams have averaged at least 18 points per game this season. The clock will move fast with a lot of running plays. Only dropped passes stop the clock; neither team will have many of those.
Riding the Wave of Change
I know history tends to repeat itself. But it didn’t last year, and I don’t think it’ll happen this year. Army found a way to score 23 against Air Force and added 28 against Coastal Carolina. This offense is capable of moving the ball.
Meanwhile, I’ve got the Navy winning this game. So if the Army is going to put up points, I think the Navy will too.
Let’s ride with the Over 27.5 at -110 betting odds. These two teams have hit at least 28 points in three of the last four games. So while the Under has hit nine of ten, this 27.5 number surely hasn’t.
NCAAF Pick: Under 27.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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