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Best MLB Player Props for August 25: Atlanta Is Caught in San Francisco’s Webb

Logan Webb Patrick Bailey San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb 62 of the San Francisco Giants celebrates with Patrick Bailey 14 after the game against the Colorado Rockies Jason O WatsonGetty ImagesAFP

The betting odds for today’s baseball action are here, and we’ve found the best player props for you to bet on.

Picks Summary

  • • Bryce Miller Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-120) at Bet365
  • • Brady Singer Over 3.5 Earned Runs (+125) at Bet365
  • • Logan Webb Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+120) at Bet365

Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners

Friday, August 25, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park


Bryce Miller (Seattle Mariners)

Seattle starts Bryce Miller tonight. Miller enters tonight’s game in tremendous form: in his last three starts, he allowed one earned run at the Angels, one earned run against the Orioles, and zero earned runs in Houston.

More deeply, he is doing a great job of inducing soft contact while minimizing hard contact.

During this three-start stretch, he has likewise achieved some of his best performances on the season in terms of starting ahead in the count and inducing batters to chase his pitches outside of the strike zone.

The key takeaway is that Miller is performing well against lineups that, one, are objectively stronger than Kansas City’s and two, match up better against his pitches from righties than Kansas City’s does.

Miller’s Arsenal

Miller is also reliable tonight because his arsenal is highly effective. He primarily throws five pitches: his fastball, slider, sweeper, sinker, and changeup. These five pitches make up 98.8% of his arsenal, although his fastball is clearly his favorite pitch to throw.

It is smart of him to rely extensively on his fastball because it is a great pitch. His fastball places in the 73rd percentile in velocity and in the 98th percentile in spin rate. These numbers indicate that it is difficult to keep up with and track the location of his fastball.

Moreover, he plays his fastball well off his slider, such that his fastball helps his slider yield a ridiculous .194 BA and .347 slugging rate. It is difficult for batters to transition from handling his heat to dealing with his slower slider.

While he ably distributes his fastball throughout different parts of the strike zone, he plays these two pitches especially well off each other when he elevates his fastball before burying his slider.

MLB Pick: Bryce Miller Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-120) at Bet365


Brady Singer (Kansas City Royals)

Brady Singer starts for the Royals tonight. It might seem too obvious to play the Singer earned runs allowed “under” because this total is set at 3.5 earned runs and Singer just faced Seattle.

On August 14, he allowed two earned runs against the team that he’ll face today.

However, for two reasons – one is game location and the other is scheduling – the Singer earned runs allowed “over” is a strong play.

Scheduling

August 14 is recent. This means that Mariners batters are going to be extra well-prepared today because they are already familiar with Singer’s stuff after recently facing him.

Different pitchers handle this sort of rematch scenario differently.

We have the data sample to suggest that Singer handles this kind of scenario poorly. For example, on June 27, he threw six shutout innings against the Guardians. Then, on July 8, he allowed six earned runs in five innings in Cleveland.

There are other examples, but the takeaway is that Singer reliably follows up a good performance against a team with a bad one in the rematch.

Location

When Singer held the Mariners to two runs, he did so in Kansas City.

Location is an important detail because he is vastly worse away from the Royals’ faithful.

Whereas his home ERA is 3.98, his ERA in road games is 6.75.

Seattle’s Lineup

In the past month, there are good reasons to be generally confident in Seattle’s lineup. The Mariners are hitting much more productively.

As part of their improvement on offense, they are thriving against the pitches that Singer throws, the sinker, slider, and changeup.

Since July 25, the Mariners rank sixth with a .452 slugging rate against Singer’s pitches from righties.

MLB Pick: Brady Singer Over 3.5 Earned Runs (+125) at Bet365


Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants

Friday, August 25, 2023 at 10:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park


Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants)

Logan Webb starts for San Francisco tonight. The over/under on his earned runs allowed total tonight is 2.5, and I find it absurd that you can find this total at +120. To me, the availability of under 2.5 earned runs at +120 indicates that oddsmakers are underrating him.

I get that the Braves deserve the high opinion that people have of them, but their success against opposing starting pitchers is far from automatic.

Two games ago, for example, they collected just over two earned runs against the Mets’ Tylor Megill, who is by all measures a much worse starting pitcher than the one they’ll face tonight.

Webb at Home

Webb is a top-level starter in San Francisco. Whereas his ERA is 4.63 on the road, it is 2.11 at home.

It’s not like he’s simply benefited from the fortune of facing softer competition at home. On April 10, for example, he held the Dodgers to one earned run in six innings. More recently, again at home, he held the Rangers to one earned run in 8.2 innings.

Including mighty Texas, he has held four of his last five opponents to fewer than three earned runs at home. This trend indicates that his success at home is consistent, which makes him reliable.

It is a good thing, actually, that he’s facing Atlanta, because he’s proven himself against strong competition, and yet we get attractive odds like +120.

While Webb just allowed four earned runs in his last start, which took place against the Braves, this start took place in Atlanta. Plus, he was victimized by an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). So he’s also due for some luck.

MLB Pick: Logan Webb Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+120) at Bet365


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