I went after some great player props for tonight’s slate of games in the MLB. Let’s earn some profit to finish out the weekend!
Picks Summary
- Bryson Stott Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140) at Bet365
- Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+116) at BetRivers
- Carlos Santana Over 1.5 Total Bases (+132) at BetRivers
Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, August 4, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Fading Jordan Lyles is something I love to do. Lyles has allowed 479 batters to hit a .224 ISO and wOBA of .338 this season. Over the last month, lefties have been more efficient, hitting a .174 ISO and wOBA of .361 against Lyles.
The right-hander has struck out just 16.3% of left-handed batters over the last month. He’s also allowed lefties to hit 36.8% of fly balls over the last month while inducing just 34.2% of ground balls. Lyles allows a lot of hard contact and contact in the air. That typically results in a lot of extra-base hits, especially from lefties.
Bryson Stott has been one of the best lefties on the Phillies this season. In the last month, Stott has slugged a .203 ISO and wOBA of .416 against righties. He’s also struck out only 11.8% of the time. There’s a very high probability he puts the ball in play in each at-bat against Lyles.
Stott has hit 23.2% of line drives and 46.4% of hard contact against righties in the last month. Meanwhile, Lyles has allowed 57.9% of hard contact to lefties in the last month. Lyles has earned only 7.9% of swinging strikes and has earned just 16.4% of whiffs.
I’ll trust Bryson Stott here. Take him to earn at least two total bases tonight at +140 betting odds.
MLB Pick: Bryson Stott Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140) at Bet365
Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, August 4, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Park
Jordan Montgomery has put up solid numbers in the MLB this season. But I have my doubts. He was traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers and could start tonight’s game sluggish.
The left-hander has watched his last 11 lefties hit a .429 ISO and wOBA of .562. He’s also given up 57.1% of fly balls to those last 11 lefties and has induced only 28.6% of ground balls. On top of that, Montgomery has allowed 85.7% of hard contact against lefties in the last 30 days.
Montgomery is typically good against lefties, but his recent stats are pretty glaring.
He’ll take on Luis Arraez, a lefty, hitting a .315 wOBA against other lefties in the last month. Arraez has also struck out only 4% of the time against lefties, so there’s a high probability that Arraez will put the ball in play multiple times against Montgomery tonight, especially with him in the lead-off spot.
Arraez has limited ground balls and continues to hit over 29% of line drives and fly balls against lefties. Let’s take Arraez to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s game. The total should be high in this one. Therefore, Arraez will likely see five at-bats tonight.
MLB Pick: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+116) at BetRivers
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, August 4, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Carlos Santana is taking on his former team, the Milwaukee Brewers. He put together a superb first half with the Pirates and then was traded to the Brewers at the MLB Trade Deadline. Santana has hit a .273 ISO and wOBA of .352 against his last 63 righties, and he’ll want to continue that pace against his former team.
He’ll face Quinn Priester of the Pirates tonight. Priester is a right-handed pitcher, giving up a .311 ISO and wOBA of .412 to 73 batters. Priester has earned a high rate of ground balls but hasn’t been able to limit walks or earn a high amount of strikeouts.
Santana has slugged over 31% of line drives and fly balls against righties as a lefty. He’s a switch-hitter but will bat from the left side against Priester. Santana has also hit 50% of hard contact against righties over the last month. He’s hitting with a 9.1% barrel percentage and only has a .200 BABIP. That will rise as long as he continues hitting these types of numbers. Priester continues to give up big hits and a lot of walks.
Santana will have chances with guys on base, and he’s delivered throughout the season. Let’s back him to deliver some more tonight. Take Santana to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s game.
MLB Pick: Carlos Santana Over 1.5 Total Bases (+132) at BetRivers
