Plenty of times, I’ve selected mid-tier players for player props. Tonight, I’m looking to cash in on household names. Let’s see how this goes. Here are three player props to consider for tonight’s slate of games in the MLB.
- Marcus Stroman Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+117) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) at Bet365
- Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday, July 1, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
Marcus Stroman will take the hill for the Cubs tonight. Stroman has been super dominant all season long. However, he’s only earned 18.4% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. That’s down from 20.8% of strikeouts on the season.
Stroman has kept his ISO down to .044 and wOBA down to .274 in the last 30 days. He’s been able to get nearly 59% of grounders and has allowed only 10% of fly balls in the last month too.
But tonight, he’ll face a Guardians lineup that has struck out only 18.5% of the time against righties in the last month.
The Guardians only have two players in the projected lineup, striking out more than 18.7% of the time. They’ve got more guys striking out less than 15% of the time than more than 15% of the time.
Stroman can get through seven innings and pitch well, but he’ll pitch well by earning ground balls, limiting walks, and keeping hard contact down. He’s not getting many whiffs or swinging strikes, especially against left-handed batters.
The Guardians will have seven lefties against Stroman in tonight’s game. Therefore, I’ll back Stroman to go Under his strikeout total in tonight’s game, despite a possible quality start from Stroman.
MLB Pick: Marcus Stroman Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+117) at Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday, July 1, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at Kauffman Field
Daniel Lynch will make another start for the Royals tonight. He’s allowing a lot of hits and rarely earning strikeouts this month. He’s never been a high-strikeout pitcher, having struck out 15.9% of batters this season and 14.2% in the last month.
However, Lynch can keep his walks down, allowing him to get deeper into games, despite allowing many hits. The longer he goes, the more chance he has of earning high strikeouts against a Dodgers lineup, with five batters striking out at least 22.7% of the time against lefties in the last month.
Lynch has allowed righties to hit a .209 ISO in the last month. He’s also allowing righties to hit 40% of fly balls and just 33.7% of ground balls in the last 30 days. On top of that, Lynch has given up 38.9% of hard contact to righties and doesn’t make righties chase all that much.
Mookie Betts is one righty that Lynch will have trouble with. Betts has slugged a .588 ISO and wOBA of .543 against his last 22 lefties.
He’s walked at a high rate against lefties, but as I mentioned earlier, Lynch doesn’t walk many righties. Therefore, Betts should get opportunities to swing away and earn extra-base hits. Betts has hit under 10% of grounders against lefties in the last month and has knocked 63.6% of fly balls and line drives against lefties. Let’s take Betts to earn at least two total bases tonight.
MLB Pick: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) at Bet365
Saturday, July 1, 2023 – 10:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Ryne Nelson will get another start for the Diamondbacks. He’s yet another pitcher who is struggling to earn high strikeouts lately. Lefties have hit a .222 ISO and wOBA of .311 against Nelson. They’ve also hit just 31.8% of ground balls against Nelson while slugging 40.9% of fly balls in the last 30 days.
Nelson has also allowed 56.8% of hard contact to lefties and can’t get many swings and misses against lefties either.
He’ll have to face Shohei Ohtani, who just hit his 30th home run of the season last night. Ohtani has slugged a .542 ISO and wOBA of .593 against his last 85 righties faced. He’s also hit 34.5% of fly balls and line drives with 65.5% of hard contact.
On top of that, against righties in the last 30 days, Ohtani has hit a 20.7% barrel percentage, meaning he’s getting excellent wood on the ball against righties. He’s also got a .417 BABIP against righties, which means that he’s finding ways to get on base at a high clip when the ball is hit into play. I’ll back Ohtani to continue his hot hitting at -115 betting odds. Let’s take Ohtani to earn at least two total bases tonight.
MLB Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook