We have a full slate of games to begin the second half of the season. Here are some player props for the later portion of the slate.
Picks Summary
- Anthony Rizzo Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) at Bet365
- Hunter Renfroe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Luis Castillo Over 7.5 K’s (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Yankees vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, July 14, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Austin Gomber will take the hill for the Rockies in the second-half opener. Gomber has been dominant against righties over the last month. However, lefties have hit a .450 ISO and wOBA of .484 against him over the previous 30 days.
That sample size is small. It’s just 23 batters. But that’s enough to prove that he’s struggling against lefties. Throughout the season, 85 lefties have still hit a .370 ISO and wOBA of .482.
The Yankees should only have one lefty in the lineup. But it’s Anthony Rizzo, who has hit a .365 wOBA against lefties, along with just 11.8% of strikeouts.
Rizzo has hit 46.2% of hard contact against lefties over the last month and has a BABIP of .385.
Meanwhile, Gomber has allowed 45% of hard contact and has struck out just 4.3% of lefties in the last month. Rizzo should be able to put the ball in play and make something happen against Gomber.
Gomber is giving up a 15% barrel percentage against lefties and only earning 7.7% of swinging strikes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rizzo drill one down the right-field line on a ball inside of him.
Let’s take Rizzo to earn at least two total bases tonight at -110 betting odds.
MLB Pick: Anthony Rizzo Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) at Bet365
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, July 14, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
J.P. France has only struck out 7.9% of his last 63 righties faced. Eventually, that’s going to haunt him. France has allowed a .169 ISO but only has a wOBA of .280 to his previous 63 righties faced. That’s even though France has allowed 32.7% of fly balls and has induced just 40% of ground balls over the last month against righties.
On the season, France has allowed a .222 ISO and wOBA of .344 against righties. He’s also allowed over 49% of hard contact and has earned just 8.8% of swinging strikes. In the last month, swinging strikes to righties has decreased to 5.8%.
The Angels are a team that usually strikes out a whole lot against righties. But the strikeouts will likely drop against France, especially from the hitters batting righty.
Hunter Renfroe is the righty who should do the most damage against France tonight. Renfroe has hit a .255 ISO and wOBA of .342 against his last 53 righties faced. He’s also minimized ground balls and has hit over 23% of line drives with 43.6% of hard contact against righties over the last 30 days.
Let’s take Renfroe to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s game against France and the Astros.
MLB Pick: Hunter Renfroe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, July 14, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Luis Castillo only struck out 19.5% of batters over the last month. His strikeout rate dropped from 26.9% this season to under 20% in the previous month.
But tonight, he’s got a Tigers lineup that has struck out 27.1% of the time against righties in the last month.
The All-Star break will likely help Castillo get back on track. He still earned 14.3% of swinging strikes compared to 15.2% of swinging strikes on the season. He’s also earned 27.8% of whiffs in the last month compared to his 29.4% on the season. He’s still doing his thing. It just hasn’t resulted in strikeouts as much as he did previously.
But as I said, I expect that to change against a Tigers offense with four batters striking out at least 29.2% of the time against righties. Those are four targets that Castillo should at least be able to strike out once, if not twice.
Castillo has still kept his walks down and has done well, earning a high rate of ground balls against righties. I’d expect him to stick around in this game and pitch a quality start. He might even be able to go seven innings against this Tigers lineup.
Take Castillo to strike out at least eight batters tonight.
MLB Pick: Luis Castillo Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
