We’ve got a smaller slate on the MLB schedule tonight, but there are still plenty of appealing matchups to attack. Here are three player props to consider for tonight’s slate of games in the MLB.
- Matt Manning Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) at BetRivers
- Logan Gilbert Over 7.5 K’s (+102) at Caesars Sportsbook
Monday, July 17, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Matt Manning won’t get high strikeouts for the Tigers tonight. But he’s still earning a high rate of ground balls and keeping teams to a .036 ISO and wOBA of .223 over the last month.
Manning has limited line drives over the last month and has allowed a 0% barrel percentage against his last 34 lefties.
He’ll face a Royals lineup that has hit a .141 ISO and wOBA of .310 over the last month against righties. The Royals have four batters striking out at least 23.7% of the time against righties over the previous month. They’ve also got six batters walking 5.9% of the time or fewer.
Manning should be able to get six quality innings in this game against the Royals. Kansas City has only hit 22.3% of line drives against righties. Instead, they’ve hit 44.7% of ground balls against righties.
The Tigers’ starting rotation has ultimately made a statement. It’s the offense that is lagging for the Tigers. Take Manning to allow under 2.5 earned runs at the MLB odds boards.
MLB Prop Pick: Matt Manning Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Monday, July 17, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
It’ll be Luis Severino on the mound for the Yankees. He’s been horrible against left-handed batters over the season and last month.
In the last month, lefties have hit a .273 ISO and wOBA of .533 against Severino. Severino has earned just 28.9% of ground balls against lefties and has allowed 47.4% of line drive contact with 55.3% of hard contact. Severino has also struck out just 11.8% of lefties in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani is a lefty, hitting a .446 ISO and wOBA of .464 against his last 60 righties. Ohtani has slugged 35.9% of line drives and fly balls against righties in the last 30 days, and he’s also hit 71.8% of hard contact.
Most of the lefties in the Los Angeles lineup can do damage. But I’ll stick to betting on this year’s AL MVP. Take Ohtani to earn at least two total bases.
MLB Prop Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) at BetRivers
Monday, July 17, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
The Mariners have seen a drastic dip in the strikeout rate for Logan Gilbert over the last 30 days. He’s struck out just 19.4% of batters after striking out 24.8% this season.
Gilbert has still limited walks to 4.7% and has held teams to a .131 ISO and wOBA of .252 over the last month. He’s also getting an above-average whiff percentage and swinging strike percentage. Those strikeouts should come back for Gilbert in the next month or so.
Tonight’s a great opportunity to get back to high strikeouts. Gilbert is facing a Twins lineup that has struck out 29.4% of the time against righties in the last month. They’ve seven batters striking out at least 22.9% of the time and six batters striking out at least 25% of the time in the previous 30 days against righties.
Gilbert’s numbers are still outstanding. His strikeouts have just been down, but when those strikeouts come back up, he’ll be amongst the best of the best when it comes to starting pitching. Gilbert has limited line drives to 20.6% and has earned more than 46% of ground balls over the last month. It’s hard to earn walks against Gilbert too.
The Mariners have only walked 7.5% of the time against righties in the last month using their starting lineup. They’ve got a high ISO and wOBA against righties, but if they can’t hit the ball, it won’t matter against Gilbert.
So let’s back Gilbert to earn at least eight strikeouts against this Twins lineup. If he pitches seven innings, I’d expect him to get at least eight strikeouts. He’ll throw a gem.
MLB Prop Pick: Logan Gilbert Over 7.5 K’s (+102) at Caesars Sportsbook