There are so many exciting matchups with today’s baseball slate. Here are my three favorite player props for tonight’s portion of games in the MLB.
Picks Summary
- Blake Sabol Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155) at Bet365
- Reid Detmers Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-135) at Bet365
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals
Saturday, July 22, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park
Josiah Gray will take the mound for the Nationals tonight. He’s had some good outings for Washington. However, he’s also allowed lefties a .244 ISO and wOBA of .459 over the last 30 days. Gray has allowed nearly 53% of hard contact over the last month, and he’s also not getting a high rate of grounders.
Gray will face a couple of lefties that can do damage to him, and Blake Sabol is the one that has the most potential.
Sabol has hit a .304 ISO and wOBA of .372 over the last month against lefties. He’s also not walking much but hitting over 40.% fly balls and line drives in the previous 30 days. On top of that, Sabol has slugged close to 60% of hard contact and has only hit 21.9% of grounders in the last month against righties.
Meanwhile, Gray hasn’t earned a high strikeout rate or a CSW rate against lefties in the last 30 days. Therefore, I like Sabol’s chances of earning at least two total bases in tonight’s matchup against Gray.
MLB Pick: Blake Sabol Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145) at Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics
Saturday, July 22, 2023 – 09:07 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
Paul Blackburn has thrown against 197 batters this season for the Athletics. Against those 197 batters, he’s allowed a .167 ISO and wOBA of .360. Righties have hit a .204 ISO and wOBA of .348 against him this season. They’ve also hit a .217 ISO and wOBA of .362 in the last 30 days against Blackburn.
Houston’s got a lot of power from their righties against righties throughout the season and last month. Alex Bregman has slugged a .224 ISO and wOBA of .433 against his last 70 righties. He’s also struck out only 12.9% of the time and has hit over 28% of fly balls and line drives in the previous month. Bregman has also hit over 40% of hard contact against righties in the last 30 days and has hit a barrel percentage of above 10%.
On the other hand, Blackburn has allowed more line drives than ground balls induced against righties over the last 30 days. He’s giving up over 46% of hard contact and has earned just 8.4% of swinging strikes against righties in that time.
Let’s take Alex Bregman to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s game against Blackburn. He has a BABIP of .348, which should carry over against Blackburn.
MLB Pick: Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155) at Bet365
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, July 22, 2023 – 09:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Reid Detmers has struck out 36% of righties in the last month and 31.3% this season. He’s facing a Pirates lineup that has struck out 40.6% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days.
The Pirates have a lineup with seven batters striking out at least 25.8% of the time against lefties in the last month. Nick Gonzales, for example, has had 22 plate appearances against lefties in the last 30 days and has struck out 45.5% of the time. Bryan Reynolds has struck out 33.3% of the time against lefties in the previous month. Even Jared Triolo, in 15 plate appearances, has struck out 33.3% of the time.
Detmers is earning a high whiff percentage of 30.9% in the last month against righties. He’s also earning nearly 16% of swinging strikes. Detmers could have a big night of strikeouts. We can bet him to get seven or more strikeouts at reasonable betting odds. He’s currently averaging about 93 pitches per game over the last month, and he’s been consistently pitching deep into games.
Let’s take a chance on Reid Detmers to earn at least seven strikeouts in this game. He’s got seven targets and could earn this number through three innings. That’s not even unrealistic, mainly because the Pirates’ projected lineup also has hit a .066 ISO and wOBA of .256 in the last month.
MLB Pick: Reid Detmers Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-135) at Bet365
