It’s a solid slate in the MLB today. Here are three player props to consider for the later portion of the slate. Let’s continue to earn some profit!
Picks Summary
- Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) at Bet365
- Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+106) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Justin Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Texas Rangers
Sunday, July 23, 2023 – 02:35 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
The Dodgers will send out rookie pitcher Emmet Sheehan for today’s matchup against the Rangers. He’s been bad against lefties over the last month.
Sheehan won’t have to face Corey Seager anymore, but he will still have to take on some power lefties in the Texas lineup.
Nathaniel Lowe comes to mind first. Lowe has hit a .235 ISO and wOBA of .419 against his last 80 righties faced. He’s also limited strikeouts to 21.2% and has hit close to 27% of fly balls and line drives against righties in the last 30 days. Lowe also has hit 51.9% hard-hit balls and has a BABIP of .388 against righties in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Sheehan has allowed lefties to hit a .333 ISO and wOBA of .401 over the last 30 days. He’s also allowing 38.5% of fly balls and giving up 53.8% of hard contact in the previous month.
Sheehan won’t blow anything by lefties at a high rate and still only has a .217 BABIP as a pitcher against lefties. With these analytics, that BABIP number is bound to go up.
Let’s back Nathaniel Lowe to earn at least two total bases in today’s game.
MLB Prop Pick: Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) at Bet365
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Angels
Sunday, July 23, 2023 – 04:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The Pirates are falling apart, and their ace pitcher is falling apart just as severely.
Mitch Keller has allowed his last 59 lefties to hit a .264 ISO and wOBA of .390 over the previous month. He’s allowed nearly 32% of line drives and has only earned 35.6% of ground balls over the last month against lefties.
On top of that, Keller allows over 51% of hard contact to lefties and rarely gets whiffs or swinging strikes against lefties. He’ll take on a lefty named Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani has hit a .517 ISO and wOBA of .534 against his last 67 righties faced.
He’s also hit over 36% of fly balls and line drives and has slugged 78% of hard contact against righties in the last month.
Ohtani is hitting a BABIP of .394 and has a barrel percentage of 26.8% against righties over the last 30 days.
Don’t look at Keller’s seasonal stats. Look at his last 30 days. He’s falling apart. Let’s take advantage and bet Shohei Ohtani to hit two total bases against Keller in today’s ball game at the MLB odds board.
MLB Prop Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+106) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox
Sunday, July 23, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
It’s been such a weird tenure for Carlos Carrasco with the New York Mets. He’s susceptible to runs in the first inning, or if he doesn’t allow a run in the first inning, there’s usually an inning where he explodes. He rarely gives the Mets are very good to start these days. Let’s try and take advantage of his bad inning.
The Red Sox are hitting a .219 ISO and wOBA of .358 against righties in the last month using their projected lineup. Rafael Devers and Triston Casas have been the two major power hitters against lefties. However, this year, Carrasco has limited extra bases from lefties more than righties.
That’s why I’m liking Justin Turner. Turner has hit a .232 ISO and wOBA of .360 against his last 62 righties. Meanwhile, Carrasco has allowed a .229 ISO and wOBA of .320 to his previous 49 righties.
Turner has hit 25% of line drives and 40% of hard contact against righties. He also has a BABIP of .341 against righties. Turner should be near the top of the order in today’s game. So that first-inning blow-up could happen with Turner batting second.
Either way, Carrasco is allowing 67.6% of hard contact from righties over the last month. Turner should be able to find a good pitch to hit and earn an extra-base hit.
Back Justin Turner to get at least two total bases in tonight’s ESPN game.
MLB Prop Pick: Justin Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
