I’ve added three player props for tonight’s late portion of the MLB slate. Can we earn more profit to begin the new week?
- Brandon Bielak Under 4.5 K’s (-148) at BetRivers
- Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+104) at Caesars Sportsbook
Monday, July 24, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Although Brandon Bielak has put together a solid month for the Astros, his strikeout numbers aren’t high. He’s struck out 19.1% of batters in the last month and has struck out 17.9% of batters throughout the season. Meanwhile, he’ll face a Texas Rangers lineup that has struck out just 20.4% of the time against righties in the last month.
The Rangers have three batters striking out less than 15% of the time and six batters limiting strikeouts to 21.2% or lower against righties in the last month.
Bielak usually earns ground balls and limits fly balls, but he’s mostly allowing the ball to get hit into play. His swinging strike percentage and whiff percentages are low against righties and lefties.
Therefore, I’ll look at taking Bielak’s Under in strikeouts tonight.
MLB Prop Pick: Brandon Bielak Under 4.5 K’s (-148) at BetRivers
Monday, July 24, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at PETCO Park
Quinn Priester will get another shot on the mound for the Pirates tonight. Priester has allowed a .391 ISO and wOBA of .447 against 25 batters faced this season as a rookie. He has only struck out 8% of batters faced out of the 25%. However, he’s earned 64.7% of ground balls against lefties over the last month.
Priester hasn’t faced many righties. He’s only taken on five righties in the MLB, but those righties have hit a .600 ISO and wOBA of .598 against him.
Manny Machado is one righty to watch out for. He’s slugged a .389 ISO and has a wOBA of .447 against righties over the last month. Machado has also struck out 8.6% of the time against righties while limiting ground balls to 30.8%. On top of that, Machado has hit over 35% of fly balls and line drives against righties and has hit 66.2% of hard contact against them over the last month.
Priester hasn’t fooled anyone since getting the call. Sure, he’s got potential. But he might take a year or two to figure it out.
Let’s back Manny Machado to earn at least two total bases tonight.
MLB Prop Pick: Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Monday, July 24, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Jose Berrios will take the hill for the Blue Jays tonight. He’s done great work against right-handed hitters throughout the season. But lefties are getting to him a bit recently. Lefties have hit a .220 ISO and wOBA of .346 against Berrios in their last 67 plate appearances. Berrios is allowing nearly 30% of fly balls and line drives and has only induced 35.1% of ground balls against lefties over the last month.
On top of that, Berrios has allowed over 54% of hard contact and has watched lefties hit a 16.2% barrel percentage against him over the last month. He’ll face plenty of great lefties in the Dodgers lineup but the most consistent lefty is Freddie Freeman.
Freeman has slugged a .324 ISO and wOBA of .496 against his last 78 righties. The left-handed hitter has also struck out just 16.7% of the time against righties in that time. He has hit 30.9% of fly balls and line drives while hitting a 47.3% hard-hit rate against righties. He has a .431 BABIP and has hit a 12.7% barrel percentage against righties over the last 30 days.
Berrios hasn’t always been bad against lefties, but in the last month, he’s been torn apart. There’s also nothing like facing this Dodgers lineup. The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in the MLB, which will haunt Berrios when the matchup is all set and done.
There’s never an opportunity to breathe for pitchers against this Dodgers lineup. They’ve got seven batters hitting an ISO of at least .186 against righties over the last month. With all of the pressure on Berrios, you can expect the best hitters in the Dodgers order to do their thing.
Let’s take Freddie Freeman to earn at least two total bases tonight.
MLB Prop Pick: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+104) at Caesars Sportsbook