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BETTING

Best MLB Player Props for July 25: Three Starting Pitchers Worth Investing In

Griffin Canning Los Angeles Angels Seattle Mariners
Griffin Canning 47 of the Los Angeles Angels throws against the Seattle Mariners Ronald MartinezGetty ImagesAFP

With the best betting odds for today’s baseball action here, I have three players I’m interested in for today’s player prop bets: Griffin Canning for the Angels, Tyler Glasnow for the Rays, and Justin Verlander for the Mets.

Picks Summary

  • Griffin Canning Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-125) at Bet365
  • Tyler Glasnow Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-115) at Bet365
  • Justin Verlander Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-125) at Bet365

Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers

Tuesday, July 25, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Comerica Park


Griffin Canning (Los Angeles Angels)

Griffin Canning starts for the Angels tonight.

Canning is sure to have more luck tonight than he did in his last start. Most recently, he yielded a 3.18 ERA in his start against the Yankees.

He was unfortunate to yield an absurdly high .600 BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His 0.64 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he actually performed individually.

Canning’s Arsenal

Canning features a fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. In several respects, his arsenal readily creates problems for teams outside of his division that are not so familiar with him.

For example, he favors a changeup that is unusually hard. This pitch averages 90.3 mph, which means that its velocity differential relative to his fastball is relatively minimal but effective.

Canning is also unusual in that he is comfortable elevating his changeup as well as his curveball and slider, which are pitches that pitchers typically like to bury. His slider, which boasts tremendous spin, is unique in particular for its vertical movement, while his curveball boasts very strong horizontal movement.

While he’s comfortable elevating his different pitches, he prefers to elevate his fastball. Then he can play his other pitches effectively off his high fastball by burying them.

His strong command enables him to make the most use out of his repertoire. He does not walk many batters, in part because he does a good job of starting batters off with a strike.

Detroit’s Lineup

Tonight’s game presents a solid matchup opportunity for Canning.

Detroit ranks 28th with a .360 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.

MLB Pick: Griffin Canning Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-125) at Bet365


Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Tuesday, July 25, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field


Tyler Glasnow (Tampa Bay Rays)

Tampa Bay starts Tyler Glasnow tonight.

Glasnow enters tonight’s game in strong form: he has allowed one earned run in three of his last five starts. During this stretch, he has even victimized the mighty Braves.

While he allowed two earned runs in his last start, he was unfortunate to do so. In that start, which took place against a Baltimore lineup that is objectively much tougher than the Miami one he’ll face tonight, he yielded a 0.71 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which reflects how well he actually performed individually.

Glasnow’s Arsenal

Glasnow throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.

While some may dislike his lack of variety, this lack is actually a virtue for Glasnow. He is exceedingly comfortable throwing these three pitches, playing them off each other, and otherwise utilizing them effectively.

Viewed by themselves, their quality is excellent. For example, his fastball places in the 89th percentile in velocity and in the 92nd percentile in spin rate.

These numbers suggest that his fastball is relatively difficult for batters to keep up with and track. Plus, as heat maps show, he ably elevates this pitch, which gives it the appearance of rising action for batters, so that they are likelier to swing underneath it.

Glasnow vs. Marlins Lineup

As evident in, for example, his domination of Kansas City on June 25, Glasnow reliably owns lower-quality lineups, especially in Tampa Bay.

Besides the fact that the Marlins rank 27th in runs per game, their outlook tonight is negative because they match up poorly against Glasnow. They rank 21st with a .404 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.

MLB Pick: Tyler Glasnow Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-115) at Bet365


New York Mets vs. New York Yankees

Tuesday, July 25, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium


Justin Verlander (New York Mets)

Justin Verlander starts for the Mets tonight.

Verlander enters tonight’s game in strong form. In his last five starts, he only allowed more than one earned run against Dodgers and Padres teams that have been hitting his pitches from righties very well lately.

Otherwise, he has locked down the White Sox, Giants, and Brewers. Even against the Dodgers and Padres, he did a great job minimizing hard contact. He makes it especially hard for batters to hit a home run off him.

All of this is to say that he doesn’t hand out gifts.

Verlander’s Arsenal

Without being able to rely on gifts from Verlander, it’s very hard for batters to hit his stuff because of their high quality.

For example, he relies most especially on a fastball that is strong in different respects. It has above-average velocity and places in the 86th percentile in spin rate.

Plus, as heat maps show, he ably elevates this pitch, giving it the appearance of rising action; moreover, it enjoys strong horizontal movement. This confluence of factors makes his fastball hard for batters to make contact with.

But his most effective pitch is actually his slider. This pitch complements his fastball in that he likes to elevate the latter and then bury the former around the lowest borders of the strike zone. By altering the location of these pitches, he uses them to change the batter’s eye level and thus keep the batter off-balance.

Verlander vs. Yankees Batters

Especially without Aaron Judge, the Yankees are ill-equipped to deal with Verlander.

Since Judge’s absence on June 4, the Yankees slug .350 against Verlander’s pitches from righties.

MLB Pick: Justin Verlander Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-125) at Bet365


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