Although we’ve got a tiny slate on the horizon tonight, I’ve still found three player props I’m willing to attack. I see profit in the making!
Picks Summary
- Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-104) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Dylan Cease Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-121) at BetRivers
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Thursday, July 27, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Josiah Gray will take the mound for the Nationals tonight. He’s been throwing nearly 96 pitches per start over the last month. However, he’s struggled a bit against lefties in that span.
Gray has allowed lefties a .250 ISO and wOBA of .452 over the last 30 days. He’s not getting a high-ground ball percentage and allowing 48.8% of hard contact to those lefties. Gray has also allowed a 9.3% barrel percentage and isn’t getting high whiffs or swinging strikes against lefties in the last month.
Meanwhile, Brandon Nimmo has slugged a .442 ISO and wOBA of .394 over the last month against righties.
The left-hander has seen a tick-up in his power this year, hitting 50% of fly balls and line drives against righties over the last 30 days. Nimmo has also slugged 60% of hard contact against righties and has hit a 22.5% barrel percentage against righties.
Let’s take Brandon Nimmo to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s game against Gray and the Nationals.
MLB Pick: Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, July 27, 2023 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Justin Steele has been considered one of the best pitchers in the MLB this year. He’s earned 24.3% of strikeouts over the last month and has limited teams to just 2.8% of walks in that span.
Steele has also limited teams to a .118 ISO and wOBA of .310 over the last month. He’s earned over 51% of ground balls and has kept fly balls down to 19.7%. This has allowed Steele to get deeper into games. He’s thrown over 91 pitches per start over the last month, and that’s more than his typical start of 85 pitches. He’s struck out 25.6% of right-handed batters over the last month.
Tonight, he’ll take on a Cardinals lineup that should have at least eight righties. Those righties have struck out 23.6% of the time against lefties over the last month. He might have to face Lars Nootbaar, the only lefty. Nootbaar has struck out 47.6% of the time against his last 21 lefties.
Steele hasn’t earned a high rate of strikeouts against lefties lately, but he’s still earned 25.6% of strikeouts against lefties this season. That’s still a good matchup for him to earn strikeouts. The Cardinals have struck out 26.2% of the time against lefties using their projected lineup over the last 30 days. Let’s back Steele to earn a good amount of strikeouts tonight.
MLB Pick: Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-104) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Thursday, July 27, 2023 – 8:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Park
The Guardians and White Sox each began the MLB Trade Deadline with a couple of trades yesterday. Cleveland is still competing for a playoff spot.
Meanwhile, the White Sox are going to be sellers are the deadline. Tonight could be Dylan Cease’s last start with the White Sox. He’s struck out 28.9% of batters over the last month. But he will have difficulty striking out the Guardians at a high rate.
The Guardians traded away Amed Rosario to give more playing time to Gabriel Arias. They believe he can bring solid production to the club with more playing time. Cleveland has struck out 19.7% of the time against righties over the last month.
Cease has also allowed a .175 ISO and wOBA of .362 to his last 46 righties. Arias will be one of two righties in the lineup facing Cease. The Guardians will limit ground balls and hit a lot of line drives and fly balls.
When Cease isn’t earning strikeouts, that’s what he’s giving up. Therefore, I like the Guardians to push Cease out of the game early tonight. Give me Cease’s Under for strikeouts at -121 betting odds.
MLB Pick: Dylan Cease Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-121) at BetRivers
