The weekend is about to begin, and there’s no better way into Friday than betting on player props for three perennial all-stars in the MLB. That’s what I’m doing tonight. Let’s earn some profit!
Picks Summary
- Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) at Bet365
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) at Bet365
- Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, July 28, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Logan Gilbert will take the hill for the Mariners tonight. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has struggled against lefties over the last month. Gilbert has allowed an ISO of .177 and wOBA of .373 against his last 66 lefties. Gilbert will go deep in this game.
However, he’s only earned 19.7% of strikeouts against lefties over the last month and will struggle against some lefties in the Arizona lineup. That includes Corbin Carroll. Carroll is a lefty who has hit a .286 ISO and wOBA of .398 against his last 57 righties.
His strikeout rate might be a bit high, but Gilbert is no longer a high-strikeout pitcher. Carroll has hit 51.5% of hard contact and has limited ground balls under 40% over the last 30 days against righties.
Meanwhile, Gilbert is allowing 38% of line drives and only recently inducing 36% of ground balls against lefties. He’s also allowing 40% of hard contact.
Carroll is one of the best young hitters in the game, and he’s got a dynamite matchup against Gilbert in tonight’s ball game. Take Carroll to earn at least two total bases tonight at +105 betting odds.
MLB Pick: Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) at Bet365
Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, July 28, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The Rangers will send Dane Dunning to the hill to face the Padres tonight. The right-hander has been dominant against righties, but he’s been awful against lefties.
His last 66 lefties faced have hit a .339 ISO and wOBA of .465. Those lefties have also struck out only 12.1% of the time and have hit more fly balls than ground balls over that span. Dunning has allowed 44.4% of hard contact and nearly 30% of line drives from lefties in the last 30 days.
He’ll have to face Juan Soto of the Padres. Soto is a left-handed batter, slugging a .339 ISO and wOBA of .431 against his last 71 righties. Soto has also kept his strikeouts down to 15.5% against righties in that span.
Dunning has rarely earned swinging strikes against lefties and isn’t earning a high rate of whiffs. Instead, he’s allowing a .347 BABIP, which is reasonable for the amount of hard contact and line drives he’s allowed over the last month.
Soto has hit over 30% of fly balls and line drives while hitting nearly 59% of hard contact against righties. He’s also hit a 17.4% barrel percentage against righties over the last 30 days, which is exceptionally high. Give Soto a shot tonight. Take him to earn at least two total bases against Dunning and the Rangers.
MLB Pick: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) at Bet365
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, July 28, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
It’ll be Brandon Williamson on the mound for the Reds tonight. Over the last month, the left-hander has been impressive, holding teams to a .087 ISO and wOBA of .196. However, he’s facing the Dodgers. That’s a whole other beast.
The Dodgers’ top three batters in the order have been hitting absurd numbers against lefties over the last month. That includes Mookie Betts, who has hit a .611 ISO and wOBA of .496 against his last 22 lefties faced.
Betts has smashed over 62% of line drives and fly balls and has limited ground balls to 18.8% against lefties over the last 30 days. He’s also kept strikeouts down and has hit 68.8% of hard contact.
Williamson has allowed a .230 ISO and wOBA of .335 to righties this season. He’s been better lately, but facing Betts won’t be easy. The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in the MLB and will make Williamson work for every single out.
Therefore, I’ll take Betts to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s game against the Reds. He’s been destroying lefties, and tonight will likely be no different.
MLB Pick: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
