I went after some strikeout props for tonight’s slate of games in the MLB. Let’s earn some profit to finish out the weekend!
Picks Summary
- Luis Castillo Over 6.5 K’s (+104) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Blake Snell Over 7.5 K’s (-141) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Dean Kremer Over 4 K’s (-175) at BetRivers
Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, July 30, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
Luis Castillo has earned 25.3% of strikeouts over the last month. He’s also struck out 27.7% of batters throughout the season. Castillo has always been known for his high-ground balls. But his strikeouts have taken over lately.
He’s taking on a Diamondbacks lineup that has struck out 22.2% of the time against righties over the last month. However, seven batters in the Arizona lineup have struck out at least 23.4% of the time against righties over the last month.
Castillo has seven legitimate targets that he can earn strikeouts with today. Plus, he’s struck out 39.6% of lefties over the last month. Arizona has seven lefties in the lineup. So this works perfectly for Castillo to earn many strikeouts in today’s game against the Diamondbacks.
Castillo has earned nearly 29% of whiffs and 16.1% of swinging strikes. These are elite numbers over the last month, which should continue into today’s matchup.
MLB Prop Pick: Luis Castillo Over 6.5 K’s (+104) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, July 30, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at PETCO Park
Blake Snell will get the start for the Padres today. He’s struck out 31.2% of his last 93 batters and has held teams to an ISO of .014 and wOBA of .293.
If Snell can continue to eliminate extra-base hits and earn a high rate of strikeouts, he will get deeper into games.
Snell has always had issues with walks. He’s walked 18.3% of batters over the last 30 days. That’s always going to hurt a bit, but he’s facing a Rangers lineup that has hit a .106 ISO and wOBA of .254 against lefties over the last month.
Snell has a ton of great matchups, including five players that have struck out at least 23.1% of the time against lefties over the last month.
Snell has earned 42.7% of whiffs and 17% of swinging strikes over the last month. Those numbers are up from 35.3% of whiffs on the season and 15.1% of swinging strikes. Snell is gradually getting better, and as long as he can eliminate the walks from his repertoire, he will have another dominant performance against a Texas team that has been awful against lefties over the last month.
MLB Prop Pick: Blake Snell Over 7.5 K’s (-141) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, July 30, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Camden Yards
Dean Kremer will take the hill for the Orioles tonight. He’s been awful against lefties over the last month but has dominated righties over the last 30 days.
I won’t promise a clean shutout from Kremer. Those lefties can get after him, but he’s struck out 30.2% of righties over the last month. Kremer won’t have to worry about Aaron Judge and will face a Yankees lineup that has struck out 26.1% of the time against righties over the last 30 days.
The lineup has seven batters striking out at least 23.6% of the time and five batters that have struck out at least 28.6% against righties over the last month.
Kremer isn’t known for high strikeouts, but he’s got plenty of enticing matchups against this Yankees lineup. He’s earned 25.3% of whiffs over the last month, and his swinging strikes have increased slightly this month compared to the entire year.
With New York hitting a .143 ISO and wOBA of .266 against righties over the last month, Kremer likely gets through six innings. He might allow a long ball to Jake Bauers or give up a couple of base hits to lefties. But overall, he’ll escape damage and keep tonight’s game against the Yankees close.
Let’s take Dean Kremer to earn at least five strikeouts tonight. If he gets through five innings, I’d like to think he’d be at five strikeouts against this Yankees lineup.
MLB Prop Pick: Dean Kremer Over 4 K’s (-175) at BetRivers
