We’ve got the final slate of MLB games until the All-Star Break. Let’s make it count. Here are three player props to consider for today’s MLB slate.
Picks Summary
- Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 K’s (-148) at BetRivers
- Christian Walker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at Bet365
- Joe Musgrove Under 5.5 K’s (-115) at Bet365
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, July 09, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Kyle Freeland has only struck out 15.1% of batters over the last 30 days. He’s also struck out only 14.9% of batters on the season. However, Freeland rarely faces lefties. There’s a good chance he faces at least three lefties in the San Francisco lineup tonight.
When Freeland faces lefties, he’s earning 33.3% of strikeouts and limits walks to 4.2%. Freeland is facing a Giants ball club that hit a .070 ISO and wOBA of .278 against lefties last month. There’s a chance Freeland sticks around in this game and throws a quality start.
If he faces six lefties, there’s a good chance he can earn high enough strikeouts to get over on his player prop. Don’t let his full strikeout numbers fool you. He can mow down lefties when facing them and should see them at least six times in today’s game.
He’s earning a CSWhiff of 29.7% against lefties and has a much higher whiff and swinging strike percentage against lefties.
As long as the Giants have three lefties in the lineup tonight. It’s go-time for Freeland’s Over.
MLB Prop Pick: Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 K’s (-148) at BetRivers
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, July 09, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
The Pirates will give Carmen Mlodzinski the ball for today’s game. Mlodzinski has allowed 27 righties to hit a .240 ISO and a wOBA of .340 against him this season. He’s been fine against lefties as a right-handed pitcher but has allowed high-line drives and hard contact to both sides of the plate this season.
Christian Walker is the hottest right-handed bat in this Arizona lineup. He’s smashed a .269 ISO and wOBA of .475 and has only struck out 13% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. Walker has also hit 41.1% of line drives and fly balls against righties and has hit over 49% of hard contact.
Mlodzinski has allowed a 10% barrel percentage in the last month to righties and only has a .222 BABIP. His BABIP is going to increase significantly against this Diamondbacks lineup. They’ve hit over 29% of line drives and 43% of hard contact.
Walker will be one of the consistent bats in tonight’s lineup. Let’s take him to get at least two total bases tonight.
MLB Prop Pick: Christian Walker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at Bet365
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, July 09, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at PETCO Park
The Mets have only struck out 21.6% of the time against righties in the last month. They couldn’t hit the ball last night, but they faced Blake Snell, who is a lefty.
Joe Musgrove has only earned 24% of strikeouts in the last month and 23.7% on the season. He’s had a harder time earning strikeouts against righties but has struck out more than 25% of lefties on the season.
The Mets will have a balanced lineup today. They’ll have at least four righties in the lineup and five lefties who have combined to strike out just 20.5% of the time against righties in the last month. Musgrove hasn’t fooled many righties. He’s allowed an ISO of .153 and a wOBA of .342, but his strikeouts are higher against lefties – meanwhile, the Mets’ lefties strike out fewer times than righties.
New York has hit 51.9% of hard contact against righties as a lineup over the last month. In the previous month, they’ve also hit close to 30% of fly balls and line drives against righties.
If New York can put the ball in play, Musgrove won’t have the longest outings. He’s always able to get through five innings and pitch above 100 pitches, but if he doesn’t have it, he’ll have a short hook, knowing the season won’t begin again until Friday. They can use any bullpen arms they want to try and win this series against the Mets.
Therefore, I like this matchup for the Mets. They’re not walking at a high rate or even working counts religiously, but they’ll put the ball in play and make things happen.
Take Musgrove’s Under for strikeouts for today’s game at the MLB odds board.
MLB Prop Pick: Joe Musgrove Under 5.5 K’s (-115) at Bet365
