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Best MLB Player Props for June 23: Fernando Tatis Jr. Will Stay on Fire

Fernando Tatis Jr Manny Machado San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr 23 of the San Diego Padres is congratulated by Manny Machado 13 after he hit a home run against the San Francisco Giants Ezra ShawGetty ImagesAFP

With a loaded Friday slate, we found our favorite player props with the best value at the MLB odds boards for you to keep cashing in!

Picks Summary

  • Fernando Tatis Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130) at Bet365
  • Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) at BetRivers
  • Zach Davies Under 3.5 K’s (-143) at Caesars Sportsbook

Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres

Friday, June 23, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park


Patrick Corbin will take the mound for the Nationals tonight. He’s a lefty with poor numbers against righties in the last 30 days.

Corbin has allowed righties to hit a .196 ISO and wOBA of .431 over the last month. Corbin has earned only 38.8% of grounders, allowing 31.2% of line drives with 48.8% of hard contact against righties in the last 30 days. The lefty doesn’t get many swinging strikes against righties, either.

He’ll take on Fernando Tatis Jr., who is expected to bat lead-off tonight. Tatis Jr. has hit a .444 ISO and wOBA of .526 against his last 24 lefties. He’s also hit 75% of hard contact over the last month against lefties.

Corbin started the year better against righties. Despite having a poor track record, things were looking OK for him to start the year. But he’s going downhill against righties in the last month, and it’s about to show, especially against a Padres lineup that has destroyed left-handed pitching.

Tatis is going to be the center of attention tonight.

MLB Pick: Fernando Tatis Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130) at Bet365


Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Friday, June 23, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium


It’ll be J.P. France on the mound for the Astros tonight. France has only earned 18.5% of strikeouts over the last month. He’s also allowed nearly 30% of fly balls and has watched righties hit 41.7% of hard contact against him. Righties have also hit 33.3% of fly balls and have limited themselves to 39.6% of ground balls against France.

France isn’t earning a high rate of whiffs or swinging strikes against righties over the last month. He’s also giving up a BABIP of just .196, which will go up in his subsequent few appearances and starts.

He’ll face Mookie Betts at the lead-off spot. Betts is a righty hitting a .154 ISO and wOBA of .344 against his last 85 righties. Betts has also struck out just 14.1% of the time.

He’s also slugged 33.3% of fly balls and line drives and has hit 53% of hard contact while only hitting 30.3% of grounders. Betts should hit it well against France in multiple at-bats against him.

MLB Pick: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) at BetRivers


Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants

Friday, June 22, 2023 – 10:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park


Zach Davies only struck out 19.4% of batters last month. That’s up from his 18.7% rate throughout the season. However, he’s facing a projected Giants lineup that has struck out just 18.5% of the time. Only three batters have struck out more than 21.9% of the time against righties in the last month in this Giants’ projected lineup.

Davies has also allowed teams to hit a wOBA of .357 and has earned only 41% of grounders while giving up close to 30% of line drives in the last month. He’s been worse against lefties, allowing 30.2% of fly balls and rarely earning swinging strikes or whiffs.

There’s a good chance Davies will face six lefties tonight. Those lefties have hit a wOBA of .339 and have struck out only 17.4% of the time. San Francisco is also patient and will work out walks. They’ve earned 13.4% collectively as a lineup against righties in the last month. That will help drive Davies’ pitch count up and get him out of the game early before he can reach at least four strikeouts.

This lineup has also combined to hit 28.7% of line drives and 45.7% of hard contact against righties in the last month. The lefties in the lineup have even done better, hitting over 31% of line drives and 46.1% of hard contact.

Look for those Giants bats to take Davies out of the game early. Davies is already a low-strikeout pitcher, to begin with. But with the way the Giants have hit against righties in the last month, he’ll likely be removed from the game before even getting to five innings.

MLB Pick: Zach Davies Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-143) at Caesars Sportsbook


Caesars
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