We’ve got baseball throughout the day today. I’ve added three player props that you should consider for the night portion of the slate.
Picks Summary
- Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) at Bet365
- Taijuan Walker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, June 29, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros)
The Houston Astros have not been excellent offensively against right-handed pitching. The offense has only hit a .161 ISO and wOBA of .287 against righties with close to 25% of strikeouts in the last 30 days.
Kyle Tucker’s a reason why. He’s only hit a .145 ISO and wOBa of .297, despite striking out just 11.2% of the time. Tucker’s luck is about to turn. Especially going up against Adam Wainwright, who has been dreadful against lefties.
Wainwright has allowed his last 41 lefties to hit a .368 ISO and wOBA of .513. He’s also earned just 4.9% of strikeouts against lefties in that time. Wainwright hasn’t fooled anyone. He’s earned swinging strikes just 3.4% of the time against lefties.
Meanwhile, Tucker has slugged 36.1% of line drives and 49.2% of hard contact with 36.1% of fly balls. He’s even minimized ground balls against righties. Tucker’s luck is about to change. Take his Over.
MLB Pick: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Paul Goldschmidt (St. Louis Cardinals)
I will stay in this game but look at a different angle.
J.P. France will take the hill for the Astros. He’s struck out only 15% of batters through the last 30 days. That number is trending down from his 18.8% of strikeouts on the season.
France has done well recently, holding teams to a .126 ISO and wOBA of .292. However, he’s allowed a .178 ISO and wOBA of .317 on the season. He hasn’t always been that good. This season, he’s struggled against righties, allowing a .246 ISO and woBA of .357.
The Cardinals might not have Nolan Arenado tonight. But they’ve got Paul Goldschmidt, a righty, who has been very successful against righties over the last 30 days. Goldschmidt is hitting a .182 ISO and wOBA of .354 against righties over the last 30 days.
He’s also hit 63.3% of hard contact in the last 30 days against righties. He’s more than likely going to put the ball in play. Any hard contact into the outfield gaps or down the line will result in extra bases. He’s also batting second, so he could earn multiple hits and his total base prop that way too.
MLB Pick: Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) at Bet365
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, June 29, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies)
Taijuan Walker has only struck out 20.5% of batters this season. However, he’s struck out 24.3% of batters over the last 30 days. His strikeout numbers are starting to jump. He’s struck out close to 28% of righties and 21.2% of lefties in the last 30 days.
Walker will face a Cubs lineup with five batters striking out at least 23.1% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. They’ve even got six batters striking out at least 22.2% of the time against righties in the last 30 days using their projected lineup. Walker doesn’t earn a lot of strikeouts or get three strikeouts in an inning, but he’s held teams to a .106 ISO and a wOBA of .228 over the last 30 days. Walker is inducing nearly 41% of grounders and has limited fly balls to 23.7%.
He’s also held teams to a 7.8% walk percentage. Therefore, he might be able to get through six or seven innings in tonight’s game. If he can get to six or seven innings, you’d have to imagine he earns at least five strikeouts in tonight’s game.
The Cubs have only six batters hitting an ISO above .115 and have collectively earned 8.5% of walks. Walker might earn some quick innings with a strikeout here and there. That would work out well for Walker to earn five strikeouts on the night.
MLB Pick: Taijuan Walker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
