There are plenty of enticing matchups on tonight’s MLB board. Here are three player props to consider for tonight’s slate of games.
Picks Summary
- Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 Total Bases (+108) at BetRivers
- Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) at Bet365
- Shane McClanahan Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-136) at BetRivers
Detroit Tigers vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, June 30, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
Michael Loreznen will take the hill for the Tigers tonight. He’s a righty who has dominated right-handed hitting. However, lefties have had their way against him over the last month.
Lefties are hitting a .211 ISO and wOBA of .329 against him over the last 30 days. They’ve hit only 23.9% of ground balls and over 39% of fly balls. Those lefties have smacked over 30% of line drives and 50% of hard contact against Lorenzen.
That’s been a theme throughout the season for Lorenzen against lefties.
Colorado’s McMahon
Meanwhile, Ryan McMahon is one of two Rockies hitting a high ISO against righties in the lineup. McMahon has smacked a .241 ISO and wOBA of .417 against his last 68 righties.
He’s also hit 25% of line drives and 55% of hard contact against righties in the last month. And keep in mind, the Rockies are still in Coors Field, where line drives carry just a little more than other ballparks.
Lorenzen is hit-or-miss against lefties. He’ll earn plenty of swinging strikes and get players to whiff at balls out of the zone. But he’s also prone to allowing extra-base hits, and pitching in Coors Field won’t help his case.
Let’s take Ryan McMahon to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s matchup at +108 betting odds.
MLB Pick: Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 Total Bases (+108) at BetRivers
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, June 30, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Ronel Blanco will get the call for the Astros tonight. He’s allowed an ISO of .250 and a wOBA of .347 to his last 95 batters faced.
Lefties are hitting a .281 ISO and wOBA of .368 over the last month against Blanco. He’s earned under 30% of grounders and has allowed over 37% of fly balls with 70% of hard contact to lefties in the last month.
Blanco has succeeded against righties, earning 22.8% of strikeouts and limiting walks to 8.8%. But that success hasn’t carried over against lefties.
Corey Seager
He’ll face Corey Seager of the Rangers, who usually bats second in the lineup. Seager has hit a .333 ISO and wOBA of .498 against his last 76 righties. He’s also struck out only 14.5% of the time against righties in the last 30 days.
Seager has hit 58.6% of hard contact and has minimized ground balls to 36.2%. But even a ground ball down the line would be enough. Blanco continues to give up a ton of hard contact. Therefore, even a ground ball could find the outfield grass and help Seager earn multiple bases.
MLB Pick: Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) at Bet365
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, June 30, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Shane McClanahan hasn’t been himself this season. He’s struck out 26.7% of batters on the year but only 19.6% throughout the last 30 days. I don’t think that rate will continue into tonight.
McClanahan will face a Mariners lineup that has struck out over 28% of the time against lefties in the last month. The left-hander has still held teams to a .275 wOBA and has earned 47% of grounders with only 22.7% of fly balls.
He’s been good, even with balls in play. It’s just that he usually earns a much higher strikeout rate. I think he’ll get back to that tonight.
The Mariners are only hitting a .143 ISO, striking out over 28% of the time, and have walked just 5.4% of the time. They’ve got nine batters striking out at least 20% of the time in the last 30 days against lefties. So McClanahan has nine targets striking out more times than he’s earned strikeouts in the last month.
This is a great spot for McClanahan to bounce back and earn heavy strikeouts.
He’s still earning a 31% CSWhiff percentage, a 29.4% whiff percentage, and 15.2% swinging strikes. So he’s still getting a lot of swinging strikes, they’re just not becoming strikeouts. That changes tonight.
MLB Pick: Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-136) at BetRivers
