MLB Prop Pick: Logan Webb Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (+104) at Caesars Sportsbook
Picks Summary
- Lance Lynn Over 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (+102) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Logan Webb Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (+104) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Jameson Taillon Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
Top Sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:
- White Sox vs. Yankees
- Giants vs. Rockies
- Cubs vs. Angels
For your MLB player props, I will recommend investing in strong pitching performances from Logan Webb for the Giants and Jameson Taillon for the Cubs and in a weak one from Lance Lynn for the White Sox.
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, June 07, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Lance Lynn (Chicago White Sox)
Lance Lynn starts for the White Sox today. Lynn’s 6.55 ERA obviously suggests that he’s performing terribly this season. While I don’t wish to deny this conclusion, it is worth noting that evaluating Lynn is a bit more complicated than it seems because he does have good starts occasionally.
For betting purposes, the key is to understand when he is likely to pitch well versus when he is likely to struggle. Lynn has had four starts, out of twelve, in which he allowed three runs or fewer. In those starts -against the Guardians, Royals, Tigers, and Twins – he faced a team that ranks in the bottom half in slugging against his pitches from righties.
He has indeed also struggled against teams that, in this way, match up poorly against him, but his results show that, if he is to perform well at all, it must come against a team that, in terms of matchup, is disadvantaged.
Those lineups that fared poorly against Lynn are also generally some of the weaker lineups out there.
The Yankees
While low-talent teams like the Royals have crushed Lynn, New York’s outlook is extra promising tonight because its lineup matches up well against Lynn.
The Yankees rank seventh in slugging against his pitches from righties. While the Yankees miss Aaron Judge, there are several reasons why his absence should not undermine your confidence in the Yankees.
One reason is the rally angle: other players step up when an important teammate goes down. Two, Giancarlo Stanton is back. Stanton, who had missed time, matches up very well against Lynn. Three, Lynn has a terrible track record in Yankee Stadium, which exists independently of Judge.
In his career, Lynn is 0-3 with a 5.66 ERA in eight starts in the Yankees’ venue.
MLB Prop Pick: Lance Lynn Over 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (+102) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Wednesday, June 07, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants)
Logan Webb starts for San Francisco tonight. Webb, as evident in his 2.85 ERA, continues to be a top-caliber pitcher. Compared to last year, he is striking out more batters. When he doesn’t achieve a strikeout, it is highly unlikely that he will yield a walk. Moreover, he does a great job of avoiding hard contact.
Heat maps show that he is excellent at avoiding the middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage. He uses the generally very strong movement of his pitches to toy with the batter’s perception of whether they will land for a strike or a ball.
Hence, it is very difficult to lay off his stuff, and this is why he ranks in the 88th percentile in the chase rate. In terms of pitches, he likes to throw his sinker most often, which is a serviceable pitch for him. But when he needs to buckle down and get outs, he can also rely extensively on both his changeup, which yields a .205 BA, and his slider, which causes a .182 BA.
He does a great job of keeping both pitches down in the zone, which tends to induce ground balls.
Rockies
Colorado’s lineup is worth fading because it has proven helpless against strong pitching.
The Rockies faced Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly for Arizona and Josiah Gray for Washington at home. They mustered five hits and zero runs against Gallen, six hits and one run against Kelly, and eight hits and one run against Gray.
The upshot of this is that the Rockies, even in hitters-friendly Coors Field, are helpless against pitchers that rank top 10 in the NL in ERA allowed.
Logan Webb is such a pitcher. He also doesn’t mind pitching at Coors, where he yields a .226 BA and .307 slugging rate.
MLB Prop Pick: Logan Webb Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (+104) at Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, June 07, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs)
Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs tonight. Taillon shows strong form based on his last two starts.Skeptics may say that those starts came against two teams, the Reds and Padres, that match up poorly against him. Whereas the Reds rank 23rd against his favorite pitches from righties, the Padres rank 27th.
However, there are two things worth noting: one, he looked really good. His command was on-point, as evident in his strike-out-to-walk ratio. Moreover, he did an incredible job of avoiding hard contact. The second thing worth noting is that he has performed very well against teams that match up well against him.
For example, in April he held the Dodgers to zero runs in five innings in Dodger Stadium. So, it’s not really helpful to look at matchups. What should we look at then?
Form and Pitching Arsenal
Taillon’s pitching arsenal is that of a good pitcher.
His fastball has a uniquely high amount of spin, and he likes to place this pitch high in the strike zone where its spin gives it an appearance of rising action that induces batters to swing underneath. Heat maps show that he does a great job of keeping his other pitches away from the middle of the strike zone.
Overall, his pitches have some excellent movement that he uses to get batters to chase his pitches outside the zone – he ranks 75th in chase rate. With seven different pitches at his disposal, he remains unpredictable. Because he is pitching well, we should expect him to be effective because of his excellent command, his pitch variety, his pitch movement, and his good location.
MLB Prop Pick: Jameson Taillon Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
