The top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s baseball action, and three games interest me today: Baltimore vs. San Diego; Toronto vs. Colorado, and San Francisco vs. San Diego.
For today’s top player props, I recommend investing in strong pitching performances from Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish, Colorado’s Ty Blach, and San Diego’s Blake Snell.
Picks Summary
- Kyle Bradish Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Ty Blach Under 3.5 Earned Runs (-160) at Bet365
- Blake Snell Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-121) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Orioles vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, September 2, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles)
Baltimore starts Kyle Bradish tonight. Bradish enters tonight’s game in strong form: he has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in his last four games.
His form is particularly impressive because he has sustained it against teams that, in view of their slugging rate against his pitches from righties, match up as well against him as his opponent tonight does.
For example, on August 13, he held the Mariners to two earned runs in six innings. His performance in that start was actually stronger than it seems. He allowed as many runs as he did because he was the victim of a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that, in view of his tremendous success limiting hard contact, was unfortunately high.
More revealing of his individual quality is the fact that he yielded a 1.43 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding). In each of his last three starts, he yielded an FIP of below 1.60. This trend conveys the ongoing consistency with which he is performing well individually.
Bradish’s Arsenal
Bradish throws a slider, fastball, sinker, curveball, and changeup.
The consistency of his effectiveness stems from the fact that he can rely on four pitches: opponents slug .363 or worse against his slider, sinker, curveball, and changeup.
Arizona’s Lineup
The Diamondbacks are not hitting well lately. In their past four games, they’ve scored a combined total of nine runs.
Their lineup is struggling even though they’ve faced softer tests than the one they’ll face tonight.
For example, Ryan Pepiot of the Dodgers, who was just optioned back to Triple-A, threw five shutout innings in his start on August 30 against them.
MLB Pick: Kyle Bradish Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Colorado Rockies
Saturday, September 2, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
Ty Blach (Colorado Rockies)
Ty Blach starts for the Rockies tonight.
Blach enters tonight’s game in good form. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. More extensively, since he joined Colorado’s starting rotation, he has held five of his last seven opponents to two earned runs or fewer.
His current form is especially impressive because he is sustaining it even against tough matchups. For example, he held the Dodgers to one run in six innings.
Home/Away
The over/under for Blach’s earned runs total tonight is 3.5. This is a relatively high total, likely owing to the fact that tonight’s game takes place in hitters-friendly Coors Field.
But the fact that Coors Field is friendly to hitters clearly does not bother Blach. In his last 13 innings in Coors Field, he has allowed two runs.
The fact that he is acclimated to pitching in this ballpark is something that oddsmakers are failing to account for.
So, while it might seem strange to bet an “under” in Coors Field, we have to look at the number. 3.5 is a great number because the Blach earned runs “under” would be worth playing even if it were 2.5.
Toronto’s Flop Spot
Toronto follows a pattern of struggling to hit in games directly following one in which they achieved a double-digit scoring output.
Before yesterday, they’ve scored ten runs or more on three separate occasions in the second half of the season.
Excluding extra innings, they scored three runs or fewer in the following game every time.
MLB Pick: Ty Blach Under 3.5 Earned Runs (-160) at Bet365
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, September 2, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Blake Snell (San Diego Padres)
The Padres start Blake Snell tonight. In his last start, in which he threw seven shutout innings in St. Louis, Snell returned to being the dominant pitcher that he showed himself to be throughout July, the pitcher who could not give up more than a run.
Snell’s last start was typical of his tendency to walk a lot of batters while avoiding hits.
While walking batters is generally viewed as a bad thing, heat maps explain the connection between his high walk rate and his ability to limit hits.
He concentrates his pitches on the borders of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage, although his pitches might also land outside the strike zone and lead to walks.
Snell’s Arsenal
Snell throws a fastball, curveball, changeup, and slider.
Besides their precise location, Snell is also hard to hit because of the quality of his pitches.
This quality is evident in the velocity, spin, or movement of his specific pitches and, more broadly, in his high whiff rate.
Snell vs. San Francisco
Snell loves facing San Francisco, especially in recent times.
Since last year, he has allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his last four starts against them.
Matchup Factor
Snell continues to thrive against the Giants because he owns a tremendous matchup advantage over them.
In his last start against them, he threw six shutout innings while striking out eleven batters.
This success accords with what one must expect given the fact that San Francisco ranks 29th with a .362 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
MLB Pick: Blake Snell Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-121) at Caesars Sportsbook
