Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.
Three games interest me: Tigers vs. White Sox, Blue Jays vs. Rockies, and Orioles vs. Diamondbacks.
For your best bets, I recommend investing in solid pitching performances from Chicago’s Michael Kopech, Toronto’s Kevin Gausman, and Arizona’s Zac Gallen.
Picks Summary
- Michael Kopech Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+120) at Bet365
- Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+115) at Bet365
- Zac Gallen Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-105) at Bet365
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Sunday, September 03, 2023 – 02:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
Michael Kopech (Chicago White Sox)
Michael Kopech’s last start, which took place in Baltimore, creates a misleadingly negative impression of him. Kopech allowed as many runs as he did because he was the victim of a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
More tellingly, he did an intense job of limiting soft contact. He has now limited his last two opponents, Baltimore and Seattle, to a hard contact rate well below his season average.
Kopech’s Arsenal
Kopech throws a fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. With these pitches, Kopech ably limits hard contact because, as heat maps show, he excels at locating them precisely along the borders of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
While plate-nibbling leads to a higher rate of walks, it is much better to allow a walk than a double, triple, or home run. Aside from their location, Kopech’s pitches also possess virtues.
His fastball, for example, averages just over 95 mph, showcases significant spin, and has relatively strong movement. This combination of velocity, spin, and movement makes it hard for batters to keep up with and track the location of their fastball.
Kopech vs. Tigers
Kopech loves facing the Tigers. Since 2021, he has faced them five times.
In all five starts, he allowed two earned runs or fewer. His last start against them came on June 4. He allowed two earned runs in seven innings.
Detroit’s Flop Spot
Even if we overlook Kopech’s history against Detroit, the Tigers’ lineup is in a must-fade spot because it produced ten runs in its last game.
They’ve scored nine or more runs four times so far. After every such explosion, they scored three runs or fewer in the following game.
MLB Prop Pick: Michael Kopech Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+120) at Bet365
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Colorado Rockies
Sunday, September 03, 2023 – 03:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
Kevin Gausman (Toronto Blue Jays)
Toronto starts Kevin Gausman today. Gausman’s last start creates a misleadingly negative impression of him.
In that start, he yielded a 5.40 ERA because he was the victim of a high BABIP. However, he did a tremendous job of limiting hard contact.
His 2.26 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he actually performed and attests to the quality of his current form.
Gausman’s Arsenal
Gausman’s repertoire of pitches makes him reliably successful.
He throws a fastball, split-finger, and slider. His fastball has good velocity and powerful movement. In two senses, he plays this pitch well off his split-finger.
- He likes to elevate the former and then bury the latter, changing the batter’s eye level.
- He uses his split-finger to create a change of pace relative to his fastball, which likewise keeps the batter off-balance.
Matchup Factor
Today, Gausman’s outlook is strong partly because the Rockies match up poorly against him.
They rank 20th with a .411 slugging rate against his pitches from righties. .411 might not seem so bad, but they’ve produced this slugging rate primarily against inferior versions of Gausman’s pitches, thrown by inferior pitchers.
Moreover, this slugging rate is amplified by Coors Field, the hitter-friendly ballpark in which they play half of their games.
Gausman in Coors Field
While Coors Field tends to amplify run outputs, this is not so for Gausman. Gausman’s career history in Denver shows that he is comfortable executing in this ballpark.
Dating to 2021, he has allowed a combined total of four runs in his last two starts in the Rockies’ venue.
His repertoire – specifically his reliance on fastballs and a slider and the fact that he doesn’t throw a curveball – makes sense for his success in such a high-altitude ballpark.
MLB Prop Pick: Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+115) at Bet365
Baltimore Orioles vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, September 03, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
Zac Gallen (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Zac Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks tonight. While Gallen struggled in his last outing, he had to face the mighty Dodgers.
As evident in, for example, his first start of the season, allowing a lot of runs to the Dodgers is nothing new for Gallen and therefore does not constitute a cause for alarm.
Gallen is primed to bounce back from his last start because he was thriving before having to face the Dodgers. Before facing them, he allowed a combined total of four runs in his previous four starts.
This stretch of success is impressive because he even sustained it against Texas, which ranks third in runs per game, right behind the Dodgers.
Home/Away
Gallen’s last start does not constitute a cause for alarm, also because it took place on the road. Whereas he is unreliable on the road, he is automatic at home.
His ERA is 1.79 at home, compared to 4.81 in road games. In his recent string of starts; however, he has thrived on the road.
Gallen’s Arsenal
Gallen throws a fastball, curveball, changeup, cutter, and slider. While variety is a virtue for a pitcher’s repertoire – it diminishes batters’ ability to guess which pitch they will face – pitchers often use their variety of pitches to replace quality with quantity.
This is not so with Gallen. The three pitches that he throws most often, his fastball, curveball, and changeup, yield a slugging rate of .361 or lower.
His success particularly with these three pitches is crucial because they combine to make up about 85 percent of his arsenal.
MLB Prop Pick: Zac Gallen Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-105) at Bet365
