This has been without a doubt the greatest year ever for college basketball betting. Now that so many states – and the province of Ontario – have enacted these new regulations, there are tons of new bettors in the marketplace, and hundreds of NCAAB player props for all of us to bet on.
Spreads, moneylines, and totals still matter, of course, but player props are where you’ll usually find the highest profit margins for your college basketball picks. And we’ve found three props in particular that should be worth your while this Saturday, the last day before Champ Week for most Division I teams.
All three of these picks happen to be from the same game, too, and they all feature players from the Texas Tech Red Raiders. They’re about to host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in their Big 12 finale; that means it’s Senior Night, and our first pick is senior forward Kevin Obanor going Over 1.5 made threes, with the vig set at +180 on the NCAAB odds at press time.
Saturday, March 4, 2023 – 06:00 PM EST at United Supermarkets Arena
Is Texas Tech Going to the Tournament?
If you mean the Big 12 Tournament, yes. All 10 teams in this conference get to play; the Red Raiders are ninth in the standings at 5-12 heading into this contest, although they could move up to No. 8 if we’re interpreting things correctly.
Texas Tech will have to win the Big 12 title to punch their tickets to the Big Dance, so it’s probably not happening – they project as something like a 2-seed in the NIT, though.
First, they have to take care of business this Saturday against the Cowboys, who are No. 7 in the Big 12 standings at 7-10, and part of the “Next Four Out” on Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology report for ESPN.
This is where our main man Obanor comes in. He’s made 1.3 threes per game this year on 3.9 attempts, shooting a career-low 33.3% from downtown, but that +170 payout should be worth the risk.
Oklahoma State happens to have one of the better defenses in college hoops, checking in at No. 15 overall according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency stats for Division I. But the Cowboys do their best work inside the arc:
- 2P% allowed: 45.9 (No. 34)
- 3P% allowed: 31.3 (No. 50)
The ‘Pokes operate at a fairly medium pace of 67.9 possessions per game, ranking No. 161 in Adjusted Tempo, so we don’t have to worry about them hogging the ball too much and keeping it out of Obanor’s hands.
History is also on our side. In their previous encounter on February 8, Obanor shot 2-of-4 from downtown as Texas Tech narrowly lost 71-68 to the Cowboys as 5.5-point road dogs. They’re 6-point home faves for the rematch, with OSU on a 5-game losing streak and forwards Tyreek Smith (ankle) and Moussa Cisse (leg) on the mend.
NCAAB Pick: Kevin Obanor Over 1.5 Three-Pointers (+180) at Bet365
Will Moussa Cisse Play Saturday?
Maybe not. Smith is reported to be probable for Oklahoma State at press time, but Cisse’s status is up in the air. Whether they play hurt or miss this game entirely, Obanor should benefit.
The same can’t be said for our other player props, both of which are on Texas Tech players missing their respective rebound totals.
Let’s start with sophomore guard Jaylon Tyson going Under 7.5 boards with -115 vigorish attached; Tyson usually grabs 6.3 boards per game, and as mentioned above, Oklahoma State’s interior defense is where they shine.
When it comes to rebounding, the Cowboys allow just 10.3 rebounds per game, partly because they’re racking up 4.9 blocks per game (No. 20). Cisse, their tallest player at 6-foot-10, is responsible for 2.0 of those blocks; you might want to wait for a status update before hammering this prop, just in case.
NCAAB Pick: Jaylon Tyson Under 7.5 Rebounds (-115) at Bet365
Our third and final prop is junior forward Fardaws Aimaq going Under 9.5 rebounds at even money, which seems pretty generous considering his season average of 8.3 boards per game.
But again, will the 6-foot-11 Aimaq have to contend with Cisse in this matchup? It’s worth waiting for more information before betting, so get that info, then bet accordingly.
NCAAB Pick: Fardaws Aimaq Under 9.5 Rebounds (-105) at Bet365