It’s officially basketball season now. The Super Bowl might be the biggest single game on the sports betting calendar, but it’s dwarfed by the enormity of March Madness – and the march to the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament begins in earnest this week.
To celebrate, let’s rack up three of the tastiest player props on Saturday’s NCAAB odds. These are all for games that start later in the day, giving you ample time to get your money down; the edges for these bets are all far more substantial than what you’ll find with the spread or total, so size your bets accordingly.
Picks Summary
- Eduardo Andre Under 7.5 Rebounds (+100) at Bet365
- Justyn Mutts Under 5.5 Assists (+110) at Bet365
- Tyrese Proctor Over 2.5 Rebounds (-125) at Bet365
Colorado State Rams vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Saturday, February 18, 2023 – 05:00 PM EST at Save Mart Center
This isn’t the highest-profile game on the schedule, but it gives us the highest potential profit margin, with Fresno State’s Eduardo Andre projected to fall well below 7.5 rebounds against Colorado State.
Is the Mountain West a Major Conference?
They’re definitely playing like one. According to the Simple Rating System at Sports Reference, the MWC (plus-8.57 SRS) ranks sixth among the 32 Division I conferences, ahead of the famed Atlantic Coast Conference (plus-7.81 SRS). Take that, Duke.
Unfortunately for the Bulldogs (9-16 SU, 9-15 ATS), they’re the lowest-rated team in the Mountain West at plus-2.0 SRS; Colorado State (11-15 SU, 9-16 ATS) find themselves in the middle of the pack at plus-6.0 SRS, even if they’re tied with Wyoming for last place in the conference standings.
Andre (plus-3.7 BPM) is one of Fresno State’s better players, and easily their best defender. But the 6-foot-11 sophomore forward has grabbed 5.5 boards per game this year; that’s comfortably below his total for Saturday, and the vig for this wager is +100 on the overseas college basketball lines as we go to press.
Why the difference? It might be because people are underrating Colorado State, if their SRS is any indication. The Rams are also middle of the pack when it comes to giving up rebounds, allowing 33.5 per game (No. 142). It appears Andre might have a more difficult evening than the betting public expects.
NCAAB Pick: Eduardo Andre Under 7.5 Rebounds (+100) at Bet365
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Saturday, February 18, 2023 – 05:00 PM EST at Cassell Coliseum
Speaking of the ACC, our second player prop features Virginia Tech’s Justyn Mutts, who’s looking at a total of 5.5 assists for Saturday’s matchup with Pitt. That’s too many assists with the vig at +110.
What Happened to the ACC?
The winds of change. Mike Krzyzewski (Duke) and Roy Williams (North Carolina) have retired; Jim Boeheim (Syracuse) is 78 years old, and was going to retire in 2018, but continues to hang on.
As for these two teams, Pitt (19-7 SU, 19-6-1 ATS) may be tied for first in the ACC standings, but they’re a so-so team at plus-11.2 SRS that’s playing above their heads. Virginia Tech (15-11 SU, 10-16 ATS) are almost as good at plus-10.3 SRS despite their horrible record.
We’re still going Under 5.5 assists with Mutts. He’s put up 4.9 assists per game this year, and Pitt has only allowed opponents to dish 12.4 dimes per game. Both these teams are also very, very slow – they’ll get in maybe 64 possessions barring overtime, around three fewer than the D-I average.
NCAAB Pick: Justyn Mutts Under 5.5 Assists (+110) at Bet365
Duke Blue Devils vs. Syracuse Orange
Saturday, February 18, 2023 – 06:00 PM EST at JMA Wireless Dome
Fittingly enough, our last stop is in Syracuse, where Duke guard Tyrese Proctor is a strong candidate to go Over 2.5 rebounds against the Orange.
Who Is Tyrese Proctor?
Proctor (3.2 rebounds per game) isn’t one of the more heralded prospects for Duke (18-8 SU, 9-17 ATS), but the Sydney, Australia native did crack the 2022 RSCI Top 100 at No. 97. He’s 6-foot-5, blowout ‘fro not included; Proctor is also a Swiss Army-knife combo guard who can do a little of everything on the floor.
This Saturday, Proctor will face a Syracuse team (16-10 SU, 15-10-1 ATS) that gives up 36.0 rebounds per game. The only bugaboo for this bet (besides the -125 vigorish on the overseas lines) is the way the Orange limit opponents to 17.3 trey attempts per game (No. 336).
That means fewer rebound opportunities for Proctor on his missed 3-pointers, but he should still reach his target comfortably enough for a chunky Over bet.
NCAAB Pick: Tyrese Proctor Over 2.5 Rebounds (-125) at Bet365
