The top sportsbooks have released the NCAAB odds for today’s betting action we have two top picks for you today:
- Boston College vs. North Carolina: Caleb Love Under 16.5 Points (-120)
- Ohio State vs. Wisconsin: Chucky Hepburn Over 12.5 Points (-115)
Let’s see why you should invest in player props for both games.
Wednesday, March 08, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Greensboro Coliseum
Boston College’s Defense
The Eagles are most beatable from behind the arc, as evident in the terribly high three-point percentage that they allow.
As awful as this statistic is, it is a product of their defensive design. They allow a lot of threes because they are focused primarily on taking away easy two-pointers.
When Eagles opponents do work their way inside the paint, Boston College will swarm them with defenders.
Eagles’ opponents do still try to score at their basket at a semi-decent clip, but Boston College’s devotion to preventing easy baskets does pay off: the Eagles rank 55th nationally at limiting opposing field goal percentage at the rim.
Targeting Caleb Love
Given what we know about Boston College’s defense, it might seem obvious that we should look to go against North Carolina’s center, but talented centers still muster decent post totals while working inside against Boston College’s defense.
Armando Bacot, going one-on-one against his Eagles defender, might help himself to a point total that makes the over/under on his player prop a tight bet.
It will be much better if we go against Tar Heels guard Caleb Love, whose point total is inflated by the volume of his shot-taking. He will attempt several threes, although he is an inefficient three-point shooter.
When he drives inside, he will miss Bacot’s size and array of post moves.
Love will meet with too many Eagles defenders for him to navigate in the way that Bacot can from his positioning down low.
As a result, we should expect rather few points from Love.
NCAAB Pick: Caleb Love Under 16.5 Points (-120) at Bet365
Wednesday, March 08, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at United Center
Ohio State’s Defensive Woes
At home, the Buckeyes have had some decent performances on defense.
It is often the case that a team’s defense gets energized by its home crowd and therefore plays better at home. But the Buckeyes are not at home.
The Buckeyes Away From Home
When they’ve played away from home, their defense has suffered many catastrophes that solidify the extent of their reliability. Most recently, they allowed 84 points at Michigan State, 82 at Purdue, 95 at Iowa, and so on.
Away from home, the Buckeyes often let opponents catch fire from three.
This tendency is evident both in their abysmal defensive efficiency rating and in their awful three-point defense statistics.
To be exact, they rank 11th in the Big Ten in limiting the opponent’s rate of three-point attempts, and they rank 11th in the conference in limiting opposing three-point percentage.
These statistics exist as they are because Buckeyes defenders struggle to close down and contest opposing three-point shooters.
Wisconsin is just the team to make the most out of the porousness of Ohio State’s perimeter defense. They love to shoot three-pointers –they attempt them at the Big Ten’s third-highest rate– and they have plenty of guys who can knock down many three-point attempts.
It would be too risky to invest in all of those shooters, but we should choose at least one player to invest in.
This player should be the team’s best shooter, the one likeliest to thrive in a game against a team’s poor perimeter defense.
I chose guard Chucky Hepburn, Wisconsin’s best guy from behind the arc. He is converting an impressive 43.1% of his three-point attempts this season.
12.5 points seems like a modest ask in what should be a strong Badgers point total.
NCAAB Pick: Chucky Hepburn Over 12.5 Points (-115) at Bet365