Our latest NCAAB picks for Sunday include two player props for the Michigan State Spartans and one for the Creighton Bluejays.
Picks Summary:
- Tyson Walker Over 3.5 Assists (+120)
- Joey Hauser Under 15.5 Points (-115)
- Ryan Nembhard Over 4.5 Assists (+110)
Michigan State Spartans vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Sunday, March 19, 2023 – 05:15 PM EDT at Nationwide Arena (OH)
There’s no stopping the Madness. This year’s Men’s College Basketball Tournament has already been turned upside-down, and we’re not even all the way through to the Sweet Sixteen yet.
But the No. 15 Princeton Tigers are – they’ve upset both No. 2 Arizona and No. 7 Missouri in the South Region. And we know that the winner between No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (who eliminated No. 1 Purdue in the First Round) and No. 9 Florida Atlantic will advance in the East.
There’s still no shortage of big-name programs left at the Big Dance. Two of our three college basketball picks for Sunday are from the Eastern matchup between No. 7 Michigan State and No. 2 Marquette; the third takes us to the South, where No. 6 Creighton battles No. 3 Baylor.
Who Is Tyson Walker?
Tyson Walker is Michigan State’s starting point guard and their highest scorer at 14.5 points per game. We’re more interested in his 2.8 assists, though; our first player prop has Walker going Over 3.5 on the overseas NCAAB odds board, with the vigorish at +125 as we go to press.
Taking the Over on any Spartan requires a leap of faith. This is one of the slowest teams in Division I, ranking No. 304 on Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency charts at 64.9 possessions per game. However, the Eagles are slightly faster than average at 68.3 possessions per game (No. 137).
Walker also dropped four assists on the USC Trojans in their First Round matchup. Michigan State shot 26-of-54 (48.1%) from the floor against USC, slightly better than their 45.1% rate (No. 155) on the season; this was against the No. 49-ranked defense in college according to Pomeroy, while Marquette’s defense ranks about the same in 45th.
Nothing will come easy against the Golden Eagles, but the +120 juice and Michigan State’s improved form over the past several weeks should be enough to make this wager worthwhile.
NCAAB Prop Pick: Tyson Walker Over 3.5 Assists (+120) at Bet365
Who Is Joey Hauser?
More people will be familiar with Hauser, Michigan State’s starting senior forward and their top player at plus-8.3 according to the Box Plus/Minus stats at Sports Reference (Walker is second at plus-6.3 BPM). But we’re betting on Hauser to slip Under 15.5 points at -115 juice.
Hauser is MSU’s second-leading scorer on the season at 14.3 points per game, and coming off a 17-point performance against USC on 4-of-9 shooting. All four makes happened to be from behind the arc.
Those nine attempts were only fewer than Hauser’s season average; Tom Izzo loves to move the ball around in that zone offense and get tons of looks for different players. Hauser is a damn fine shooter at 46.5% from long range, but Marquette only allows 7.6 treys per game (239th fewest in Division I), so Hauser will have to be super-efficient Sunday to score 15 points or more.
NCAAB Prop Pick: Joey Hauser Under 15.5 Points (-115) at Bet365
Creighton Bluejays vs. Baylor Bears
Sunday, March 19, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Ball Arena
Last but not least, we have another 6-foot-0 point guard to match Walker; it’s Ryan Nembhard, who leads Creighton with 4.9 assists per game. We want him to go Over 4.5 this Sunday against Baylor, and we’ll get paid out at +110 if he does.
The Bluejays operate at a normal 68.0 possessions per game (No. 147), and Baylor’s a bit slower at 66.5 possessions (No. 218), but there’s a non-zero chance this game will go to overtime; the Bears are modest 1-point favorites on the overseas lines.
Baylor also checks in with the No. 99-ranked defense on the Pomeroy charts. They’re in far worse shape than last year’s squad, which ranked No. 13 on defense and earned a No. 1 seed before getting bounced out of the Second Round by No. 8 North Carolina – R.J. Davis posting six assists for UNC in 45 minutes including overtime.
We’re not saying history will repeat itself this Sunday; the Tar Heels were 5.5-point underdogs in that game, and Baylor’s top players have had a year now to chew on that result. But Nembhard is in good shape to dish five dimes or more against this Bears defense, with a +110 payout to make this wager just a little bit sweeter. Bet accordingly.
NCAAB Prop Pick: Ryan Nembhard Over 4.5 Assists (+110) at Bet365
