The Big 12 lost Texas and Oklahoma last year, and though the conference as a whole might be weaker than a few seasons ago, it still features a highly competitive component.
Arizona State was an also-ran for years in the Pac-12. Now they are the defending Big 12 champs and are positioned to repeat. As many as six schools could play for the title, with possibly a dark horse coming out of the pack. That’s the Big 12, where it feels anything is possible.
Here is a preseason look at the futures odds for each squad.
Big 12 Championship Game Winner 2025
Arizona State Sun Devils
In the last three decades, only one team has won consecutive Big 12 football titles (Oklahoma), which is Arizona State’s mission. Coach Ken Dillingham has built a good foundation, and there is the talent to keep the program moving forward.
Sophomore quarterback Sam Leavitt was outstanding in his first year. The Sun Devils won’t replace RB Cam Skattebo; however, the passing offense mustn’t become one-dimensional for ASU to grow.
The defense returned nine starters and was #1 in the conference against the run. If they can better the pass rush, look out. The Devils can return to the title game; they will have to win on the road to do so.
Kansas State Wildcats
The sense is that the overall talent level has fallen off in the “Little Apple”. There were weaknesses in the pass game and in stopping opponents from throwing successfully. Those problems have not gone away.
Junior Avery Johnson must take a big leap forward as a passer and showcase better leadership skills. The pass defense could be just as bad as last year (#77), and they lost two players taken in the NFL draft. The scheme was obviously poor in 2024.
Kansas State will go as far as Johnson can take them. Even then, the Wildcats lack in speed and seem overrated compared to Arizona State.
Utah Utes
Last season felt wasted, waiting to see if Cam Rising would return at quarterback. Coach Kyle Whittingham didn’t wait around and brought in dual-threat transfer Devon Dampier from New Mexico, where he was all-MWC. The offensive foundation is set with all five offensive linemen back. Nonetheless, Dampier and the new cast of receivers have to gel for the Utah offense to surge.
The defense was #25 in points allowed and #29 in total defense. There is reason to believe this group might reach the next level if new personnel in the D-Line are disruptive.
Most of the Utes’ hardest contests are in Salt Lake, but with a projected win total of 7.5, does Utah have enough? A definite maybe.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
A rather large contingent of Big 12 football insiders will quietly tell you Texas Tech has the best talent in the conference.
Given that the Red Raiders have frequently succumbed to expectations in the past, most want to see what coach Joey McGuire does before hopping on the Double-T bandwagon.
McGuire brought in 21 players from the portal, which added quality, size, speed, and depth. Maybe with the Longhorns and Sooners departed, the athletic department is working with donors, and a new commitment to winning is at hand in Lubbock.
Behren Morton will run the offense, but the offensive line has to come together. The Red Raiders will have a new defensive front, and if they do their job, linebacker Jacob Rodriguez has a nose for the football to make tackles. We like what Texas Tech has to offer, but we’re bothered by roadies at Utah, Arizona State and Kansas State.
Baylor Bears
Coach Dave Aranda saved his job last season with Baylor closing the regular season with six straight wins to finish 8-4. Aranda’s best move was hiring OC Jake Spavital in 2024, who engineered the #19 scoring offense and was #20 in total yards.
The Bears’ offense returns a lot of production from proven players. Aranda got this job for the great work he did at Wisconsin. Last year, he took over the defense for the first time, and they finished #87 in total defense, the worst of his tenure. Aranda worked the portal, so we’ll see.
With opening games versus Auburn, at SMU, and the first conference clash against the Sun Devils, before September ends, we will understand Baylor.
TCU Horned Frogs
While it was true coach Sonny Dykes played for a national championship in his first season at TCU, he’s since turned another football program into a one-trick frog in this case.
The Horned Frogs were #8 in passing with Josh Hoover throwing the pigskin around to a deep receiver stable. The TCU defense is run-of-the-mill, having good or bad games depending on the day. The Frogs’ win total is a mere 6.5.
If everything breaks TCU’s way, they could win nine times and reach the conference title tilt. Yet, historically, Dykes teams lose when expected to win and fall short.
Iowa State Cyclones
After a 10-2 season, Iowa State looked poised for the Big 12 championship last season. Instead of celebrating, the Cyclones were demolished by Arizona State 45-19. Though ISU has enough players to possibly play for another title, coach Matt Campbell spent the spring searching for the right team leaders after the last batch graduated.
Campbell is excellent at building team chemistry. The offensive line will add stability, with the linebackers anchoring the defense. An Over on 7.5 wins is a likely outcome.
Kansas Jayhawks
QB Jalon Daniels returns for his sixth season, which is neither good nor bad for Kansas. He’s the Jayhawks’ best option at winning, yet he’s still making the same mistakes he made earlier in Lawrence.
Veteran coach Lance Leopold has made Kansas a bowl contender, but he’s not been able to fix the defense as a cohesive unit. The Jayhawks at these odds feel overrated, even with a 7.5 win total. We will choose a bowl game for Kansas and the Under on victories.
BYU Cougars
Coming off a shocking 11-2 campaign, the enthusiasm for BYU is tempered around the conference. The Cougars lost key individuals on both sides of the ball. After turning out better than anticipated, coach Kaleni Sitake was able to play the underdog card successfully. Not this year for the Cougars.
Sitake will return ample talent, if not as many playmakers on both sides of the ball, as far as we know. Typically, senior signal callers are a good thing in Provo, which describes Jake Retzlaff.
If the Cougs split road assignments at Texas Tech and Iowa State, they are a good dark horse bet to reach the Big 12 title game.
Colorado Buffaloes
Now we start to find out how good a coach Deion Sanders truly is. One change we already see is a dramatic upgrade on either side of the line of scrimmage. To be clear, that makes Colorado average in the Big 12, as compared to well below that standard in Sanders’ first two years.
The new QB is Kaidon Salter, who won a C-USA crown for Liberty in 2023. Salter has a few Buffaloes playmakers. The defensive line is better, with the rest of the defense a liability.
With a soft non-conference slate, Over 6.5 wins might be accomplished, with no guarantee.
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Cincinnati football program has truly dropped off. Their win total is 6.5, with weighted odds to the Under side.
The Bearcats will have to run to reach a bowl because the passing offense appears limited. The Cincy defense was annually a Top 20 group in yards surrendered. Last year it was #85, and any improvement seems marginal.
Houston Cougars
One has to wonder why Willie Fritz left a good thing at Tulane other than for money. Houston averaged 14 PPG a year ago, which was #132.
Fritz revamped everything in the Cougars’ offense, trying to start to reach the success he’s had before on that side of the ball. The Houston defense has just four starters back in the fold, with many questions in need of answers. A shot at a bowler will rest in November away battles at UCF and Baylor.
UCF Knights
Scott Frost returns to resurrect his career where it last flourished.
Like Frost, Central Florida is no longer a football program on the rise; instead, a lower-end Big 12 club trying to upgrade its talent to a more physical league.
Frost’s first year in Orlando is dependent on melding transfers into a working mechanism. With an in-state matchup with Florida, six wins is a reach.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
After a 3-0 start, Oklahoma State never won another contest last season. That was Mike Gundy’s worst conference showing, and it seemed 21 years was one too long for him at Stillwater.
Gundy survived and has a completely new team that doesn’t come close to the previous star power he put together. Very little buzz about Okie State and its 5.5 win total.
West Virginia Mountaineers
A second coaching retread is starting anew in the Big 12 with Rich Rodriguez back in Morgantown. Rich Rod found success at Jacksonville State with his unique offense.
A washout at Michigan and merely so-so at Arizona, Rodriguez hopes to find elusive magic back at West Virginia. The Mountaineers will scuffle this season, with hopefully better days ahead.
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona went from 10 wins to four with former coach Jedd Fisch’s departure. Brent Brennan is regarded as a good coach, but those are a dime a dozen in a conference like the Big 12. Brennan is revamping everything, and that usually takes more than a year.
The Wildcats are playing 10 Big 12 foes, with a previously scheduled matchup with Kansas State counted as a nonconference affair. Under 5.5 wins is all but a certainty.
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