The Buffalo Bills will head down to Miami to take on the Dolphins. Both teams were able to escape with victories in Week 1. Who will prevail in this AFC East divisional battle?
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NFL Pick
- Miami Dolphins -1.5 (-110) at Bet365
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Thursday, September 12, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills got off to a slow start against the Arizona Cardinals in their season opener but were able to rally back for a 34-28 win. Once again, Josh Allen led the team to victory throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for two touchdowns. The Bills fell behind by 14 points early but were able to come back and get the victory to start their season right.
Now the Bills face another tough test when they travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins. However, the Bills have done well against the Dolphins during Josh Allen’s tenure. During that period of time, the Bills are 10-2 and Allen has a quarterback rating of 110.3 in those games against Miami. Conversely, the Bills have had success when Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is under center as Tua is 1-6 against the Buffalo Bills in his career.
Bills coach Sean McDermott is 8-5-1 ATS against Miami.
The Bills offense looks to be strong already, yet the defense is weaker than in previous years. That’s fine for the Bills however, as they have a great weapon in a shootout with Josh Allen, who always seems to rise to the occasion in the fourth quarter.
Miami Dolphins
In spite of the arrest of star wide receiver Tyreek Hill on the way to the stadium on Sunday morning, the Miami Dolphins were able to bounce back and get a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Dolphins Kicker Jason Sanders made a 52-yard field goal as time expired for the Dolphins to overcome the Jaguars. Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw for the highest amount of yards on Sunday with 336 yards. Tua was the architect of an eight-play, 31-yard drive over the final two minutes to get the win.
Miami is another team that seems to have regressed on defense during the offseason. Miami lost key players and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. However, they will look to outscore teams, and this should be a high-scoring battle between division rivals.
Key Matchups
1. Miami’s Rushing Attack
For Miami to have success against Buffalo they’re going to need to run the ball effectively. We know that Tua can move the ball through the air, but the Dolphins will need to complement this through the ground attack. The Arizona Cardinals were not able to take advantage of this against Buffalo and Miami will need to have a strong rushing output if they are going to get the win.
2. Josh Allen’s Health
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen banged up his throwing hand during the Cardinals game and might not be 100% for this game. The Bills are incredibly reliant on Josh Allen, and if he is less than 100%, it might be hard for them to keep pace with the high-powered Miami offense. We will keep an eye on Josh Allen going into the game to see if he’s suffering any lingering effects from last week’s injury.
The Pick
Although the Buffalo Bills have had success against the Dolphins in the past, I believe with the weaker Bills defense, it is going to be tough for them to keep pace on the road on a short week. Thursday night games provide a great advantage for the home team because the travel gives the home team some extra rest. Not to mention the heat in Miami will be quite different from what the Bills players have experienced in Buffalo all summer.
Watching the Bills struggle to keep the Arizona Cardinals under wraps makes me concerned about their ability to stop the even more efficient offense of the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are a much more balanced team and are more explosive as well. The Dolphins have a better rushing attack and also come into the game with a better game plan than the Cardinals. The Dolphins are also more effective against the run on defense than the Cardinals were, which will make the Buffalo Bills more one-dimensional and dependent on a banged-up Josh Allen to get the win.
The Buffalo Bills will have no answer for the Miami Dolphins’ high-powered attack of wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Expect another big day in the air from QB Tua Tagovailoa and watch the Miami Dolphins get the win and cover in this early season division battle.
NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins -1.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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