Two of the best teams in the Mountain West face off as UNLV hosts Boise State on Friday. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best college football odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Boise State -3 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Boise State vs. UNLV
Friday, October 25, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Boise State’s Recent Success Led by Jeanty and Madsen
Ashton Jeanty has been the centerpiece of Boise State’s offense, racking up 237 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns in their 28-7 win over Hawaii on October 12.
Jeanty’s season-high 31 carries for 217 rushing yards marked his third 200-yard performance this season and the fifth of his career. His ability to burst out early—93 yards in the first quarter—set the tone for Boise’s offense, allowing them to control the game.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen complemented the ground attack, throwing for 217 yards and two touchdowns on an efficient 17-of-25 passing.
However, Boise State’s defense has shown vulnerabilities in the secondary, having allowed nearly 280 passing yards per game prior to the Hawaii contest. Though they tightened up against Hawaii, giving up 264 passing yards, their pass rush was dominant, racking up eight sacks and 12 tackles for loss, led by Jayden Virgil-Morgan and Seyi Oladipo.
UNLV’s Balanced Attack Helped Them Beat Oregon State
Hajj-Malik Williams accounted for three touchdowns in UNLV’s 33-25 victory over Oregon State, completing 15 of 27 passes for 196 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 65 yards and two more scores. Ricky White III led the receiving corps with nine catches for 88 yards, including a late 22-yard touchdown that secured the win.
Defensively, UNLV was dominant with six sacks, led by Antonio Doyle’s three sacks and 10 total tackles. Jalen Catalon also made his presence felt with 10 tackles and a forced fumble. Special teams played a crucial role, as White blocked his third punt of the season, setting up a field goal that brought UNLV within one point at halftime.
Keys to the Game
Jeanty’s explosive performances have been a driving force behind Boise State’s offense. UNLV’s defense, which has excelled in pass rush, will need to focus on slowing him down. Antonio Doyle’s ability to create havoc in the backfield will be critical, but if Boise State’s offensive line can create running lanes for Jeanty, another big game could be on the horizon.
Boise State has struggled to contain the passing game this season, ranking near the bottom of the nation in passing defense. Williams’ dual-threat capabilities will test Boise State’s secondary and front seven. If the Broncos can’t improve their pass defense, Williams could exploit them through the air, while his ability to scramble adds an extra layer of difficulty for Boise State’s defense.
Boise State leads the nation in sacks, and their pass rush has been relentless, as evidenced by their eight-sack performance against Hawaii. UNLV’s offensive line will face a tough challenge in protecting Williams. If Boise State can apply consistent pressure, they could force Williams into mistakes and disrupt UNLV’s offensive rhythm.
Both teams have made special teams a key factor this season, with UNLV’s Ricky White blocking his third punt of the season last week. Boise will need to be vigilant to avoid a game-changing play. Turnovers could also play a pivotal role, as both defenses have shown the ability to create takeaways and set up short fields for their offenses.
NCAAF Pick
This game is shaping up to be a close contest, with both teams showcasing their strengths. Jeanty’s ability to control the ground game could tilt the time of possession in Boise State’s favor, keeping UNLV’s offense off the field. However, if Williams can navigate the Boise pass rush and make plays with both his arm and legs, UNLV could stay competitive well into the fourth quarter.
In the end, Boise State’s balance on offense, coupled with their pass-rushing prowess, should give them the edge. Jeanty is poised for another standout performance, and the Broncos’ defense will come through with crucial stops down the stretch.
NCAAF Pick: Boise State -3 (-110) at Bet365
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