With another home game in the NFL Playoffs, can the Detroit Lions earn their way into the NFC Championship Game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Picks Summary
- Buccaneers +6 (-110)
- Over 48.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 21, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Ford Field
The Detroit Lions will welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Ford Field for an exciting NFC Divisional Playoffs game on Sunday afternoon. One of these teams will be playing in the NFC Championship game a week later.
The Lions have been one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. They’ve averaged 26.94 points per game and have added nearly 260 yards in the air, with another 132.78 yards on the ground per game.
Detroit’s OffenseÂ
The offense has a lot of playmakers around Jared Goff. That’s why Goff was able to throw for nearly 4,600 yards with 30 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions this season.
In a revenge game against the Rams last week, Goff threw for 277 yards with one passing touchdown and no interceptions. He only had five incompletions and needed a big game after the Lions only rushed for 3.2 yards a carry in that game.
Goff delivered seven receptions to Amon-Ra St. Brown and found Josh Reynolds five times for 80 yards. Sam LaPorta wasn’t as involved in the offense for the Lions due to a hyperextended knee, but he’ll be more healthy on Sunday.
The Defense
But while the offense has played lights out, the defense hasn’t. The defense has allowed over 23 points per game this year. The Lions are terrific up front with their pass rush and run defenses. However, the secondary is awful, and the missed tackles continue to pile up.
That’s why the Lions really struggled defensively this year.
Trouble for the Lions
On the other hand, the Buccaneers have only allowed 19.12 points per game. The defense has allowed no more than nine points in the last eight quarters in do-or-die moments.
Opponents have still earned nearly 250 yards passing and 95.29 yards on the ground per game against Tampa Bay. The Lions can have success offensively against the Buccaneers. It’s just that Tampa Bay has improved over the second half of the season. The Buccaneers allowed just nine points to the Philadelphia Eagles, at home, in a playoff game.
The difference is that the Buccaneers won’t be home in this game. The Lions will find their way offensively. I just don’t know if the Lions can get stops against Tampa Bay’s offense, which has also improved drastically throughout the season.
For example, the Buccaneers looked much more prepared against the Eagles and scored 32 points with multiple deep shots and big plays down the field. It wasn’t just draw-ups. It was the fact that the Buccaneers blocked for their guys down the field and fought for extra yardage.
The Pick
With the Lions’ secondary being so bad, there’s no way that the Lions should be a -6 favorite. Sure, the Lions stepped up against the Rams in big spots but still allowed Puka Nacua to dominate them around the field.
Honestly, the Buccaneers left some big plays on the table. That game against the Eagles could’ve been worse. Look for them to regroup and at least cover +6 against the Lions on Sunday.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers +6 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
What About The Total?
I teased it above. I like the Over 48.5 in this game. Again, the Lions have allowed 23.22 points per game and have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The pass rush has kept the defense together. But ultimately, the Buccaneers have done well in pass protection for Baker Mayfield this season.
While the Eagles were lame in the second half of the season, the defensive line still had a lot of talent that was ultimately kept silent in the Wild Card Round. Meanwhile, you can’t expect the Buccaneers to play at a high level defensively against the Lions, especially on the road.
Detroit’s a powerful offense with lots of speed and plenty of high level players. The Lions have multiple running backs, who earned about 2,000 yards together in the regular season on the ground.
Detroit has also multiple pass catchers who can make big plays and a consistent receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown. But beyond that, the Lions will also have a healthier Sam LaPorta active for this game. That should also help a lot.
Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff are both rejects looking to make their mark in the NFL Postseason. It’s a great opportunity for both quarterbacks to continue their incredible journeys this year.
Therefore, I think it’ll be a shootout. Give me the Over 48.5 at -110 betting odds.
NFL Pick: Over 48.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
