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Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 4 NBA Computer Pick: Dallas Running Out of Gas

According to the NBA odds, the Boston Celtics are in prime position for an NBA title. They’re currently 3-0 in the NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks and no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA Playoffs before.

It looks like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will finally get a ring. But will it take four games or a little longer? Let’s find out before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks

And if you’re looking for more betting advice, don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel. Our expert covered this game by providing some alternative betting angles.

NBA Pick


Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks

Friday, June 14, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center


The AI Model is still backing the Mavericks despite the series being in jeopardy. Meanwhile, it is also backing the Under 211.5, as the game has gone under in the previous three contests.

Neither Offense Has Impressed

The numbers don’t lie. Neither team has been sensational offensively in this series.

The Celtics have scored no more than 117.4 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, in Game 3, on the road, Boston hauled in just 13.6% of offensive rebounds and finished with a 16 free throw rate. While the Celtics limited turnovers, it was just a better way to limit transition buckets for the other team.

Overall, the Celtics shot a 56.7% effective field goal percentage against the Mavericks and still only scored 115.2 points per 100 possessions and 106 points overall.

On the other hand, Boston has held Dallas to below 100 points in three consecutive games to start the NBA Finals. Dallas added 108.8 points per 100 possessions in Game 3, but it still wasn’t enough to reach 100.

The Mavericks even limited turnovers to 9.9% and had a higher free-throw rate. However, Dallas added only 23.4% of offensive rebounds and shot an effective field goal percentage of just 49.4%.

That’s not ideal, especially at home. The Mavericks shot better in Game 2 on the road than at home.

Boston’s Defense

The only time the Celtics struggled defensively was against the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers earned an insane effective field goal percentage but didn’t get to the foul line much.

The Mavericks are better at getting to the foul line, but they’re not scoring at a high rate against the Celtics. They haven’t had the easiest of looks. Kyrie Irving has been inconsistent, and Luka Doncic fouled out in the most crucial portion of the season in Game 3.

The Mavericks just haven’t been prepared, and the Celtics have taken advantage.

After all, the Celtics haven’t lost a game in over a month. They’ve got countless guys who can step up, even without Kristaps Porzingis being able to play. He is currently out with a rare lower leg injury and likely won’t play for the remainder of the Finals.

Celtics’ Depth

However, the Celtics have so many guys they can trust to make a play. Jaylen Brown is currently the projected MVP. He’s been very efficient. While Jayson Tatum hasn’t been efficient from the floor, he’s still doing a great job earning assists and rebounds. He’s also just done very well leading the Celtics game after game.

There’s also Derrick White, who has stepped up throughout the entire playoffs from downtown. Jrue Holiday has found his game with the Celtics in the playoffs. Finally, Al Horford is doing whatever it takes to win a championship. His career is coming to an end soon, so this would be a huge accomplishment for the former five-time all-star.

However, you just can’t say the same about the Mavericks. If Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving aren’t hitting on all cylinders, the Mavericks go silent. It’s impossible for the Mavericks to win. They don’t have the depth that Boston has and it’s shown over the first three games of the Finals.

The Pick

Therefore, it’s time to stick a fork in it. The Mavericks don’t have the offense to compete with the Celtics. That’s ultimately why each game has gone Under the total to begin the Finals.

While I don’t agree with the model on the Mavericks winning, I’ll take the Mavericks and Celtics to hit the Under 211.5.

Dallas is drained at this point.

NBA Pick: Under 211.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler

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