On paper, the Los Angeles Chargers were an easy pick to improve in 2024 under new coach Jim Harbaugh. He doesn’t do losing seasons.Â
The results were mostly good:
- The Chargers finished 11-6 to make the playoffs
- Allowed the fewest points in the NFL
- Herbert had career lows in passing while only throwing 3 interceptions.
However, their playoff performance really soured some people.
Their offseason hasn’t exactly inspired people, and the division is still very tough, too. With plenty of competition in the AFC, it’s hardly a given that the Chargers return to the playoffs in 2025.
Let’s look for our favorite props and team picks for the Chargers this year at the online sportsbooks.Â
Justin Herbert Season Outlook & Passing Yards Prop Bet
- Over/Under 3625.5 Passing Yards
Herbert is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. Before last year, he was on pace as one of the most prolific passers too.
Herbert could have a better receiving corps around him.
Ladd McConkey was fantastic as a rookie, and his game could get better. The improvement must come from Quentin Johnston. He is going into Year 3 and is a problematic wideout with too many bad drops on his resume.
That’s why Mike Williams’ abrupt retirement is a bad look for the offense.
Herbert still threw for 3,870 yards while playing in all 17 games. He’s been quite durable in his career outside of 2023. Even last year, he didn’t miss a game. He also went over his passing line for this year (3625.5 yards) by over 240 yards.
The Chargers need to use this season to unleash Herbert a bit more so they can win these higher-scoring games against competitors like the Commanders, Eagles, and obviously in the division with the Chiefs and Broncos.
If they do unleash him, look for him to go easily Over 3625.5 Passing Yards, priced around (-110).
Ladd McConkey Receiving Yards Prop: Year 2 Breakout or Regression?
- Â Over/Under 1050.5 Receiving Yards
If you’re worried about Ladd McConkey taking a step back in Year 2, don’t be. Even as a rookie, he still had 82 catches for 1,149 yards and 7 touchdowns.
The 2nd-round pick delivered an all-time rookie season for a player drafted after Round 1. And it was clear he was the only receiver Herbert really trusted after the Chargers gutted his receiving corps last offseason, getting rid of:
- Mike Williams
- Keenan Allen
- Austin Ekeler
- Gerald Everett.
It would be nice if some other receivers in this offense can step up this year, but McConkey is the guy you want getting the ball a lot anyway. It’d be a real surprise if he took a step back from his rookie production instead of getting even better.
But for now, let’s trust his receiving yards line to go Over 1050.5 while priced around -105.
Omarion Hampton Rushing Yards Prop: Can He Lead the Ground Game?
- Over/Under 825.5 Rushing Yards
Omarion Hampton was the 2nd back drafted in April after Ashton Jeanty, so expectations are going to be high.
The Chargers are invested in getting better at running the ball:
- They have the new backfield with Hampton and Harris. Both are workhorses and volume runners.
- The team also signed guard Mekhi Becton to go with their great tackle duo of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt.
Hampton has a rushing line of over/under 825.5 yards while Harris is at 600.5 yards. Last year, the Chargers got 905 yards out of J.K. Dobbins and 365 yards out of Gus Edwards. But both were injured and missed several games. They’ll want to see something more consistent this year.
Hampton should be the lead back while Harris can give him a breather. Harris’ eye injury could give Hampton an early lead in training camp in running 1st-string reps with the offense.
That said, our favorite prop is for Hampton to go over 825.5 rushing yards priced around -110.
Chargers Win Total Prediction: Los Angeles To Hit Double Digits?
The 2025 Chargers currently have the following odds at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review) for their season win total:
- Over 9.5 wins (-110)
- Under 9.5 wins (-110)
It’s basically a coin flip that the Chargers get to 10 wins this season.
They were 11-6 last year despite only being 1-5 at 4th-quarter comeback opportunities and 4-5 in all close games. However, their best wins all season were against the Bengals in a game they nearly wasted a huge lead and the Bengals missed some go-ahead field goals, and they beat the Broncos in a late-season shootout.
Otherwise, this team beat up on a lot of scrubs, and the Chargers still lost some very low-scoring games to the Chiefs (twice) and the Cardinals. They were also scored on quite easily by the Buccaneers and Ravens at home.
Tough Schedule Could Derail Chargers’ Push for 10 Wins in 2025
When you look at the schedule, we know the division is tough and it could be even tougher this year if the Chiefs stay healthier, Beyond that, the Chargers have games with Washington and Philadelphia, the NFC finalists from last year.
The last month is also really difficult with the Chargers on the road for 3-of-4 games in Kansas City, Dallas, and closing in Denver. They’ll also host Houston, the team that embarrassed them in the playoffs.
It’s easy to say you trust Harbaugh as a coach and Herbert as a quarterback. However, this is not the kind of complete roster that Harbaugh had in San Francisco when he went to 3 straight NFC Championship Games in 2011-13.
The Chargers should still compete for a winning record, but let’s take the under 9.5 wins priced around -110.
2025 AFC West Predictions: Where Will the Chargers Finish?
When you start predicting a team to finish 9-8, the playoff prediction gets tricky. For that reason, we’re more interested in betting on exactly which position the Chargers will finish in the AFC West, which has the following odds:
- 1st (+300)
- 2nd (+220)
- 3rd (+220)
- 4th (+350)
The Chiefs have won the AFC West the last 9 years. After doing it last year with so many key injuries, there is a real chance for that team to get stronger in 2025.
We’re not putting the Chargers ahead of the Chiefs until they prove it on the field.
While the Raiders should be more competitive under coach Carroll, it’s hard to see the defense being anything but 4th in the division. The Chargers have a better defense and Herbert is better than Smith.
That leaves the middle battle between the Chargers and Broncos again.
Last year, Denver finished 3rd after beating Kansas City’s backups in Week 18 to make the playoffs. Denver has a strong defense, especially in the secondary.
I think the draft strategy proves to be the difference here, as Denver’s moves made more sense than the Chargers’ moves did. That Week 18 game that could decide this is at Mile High Stadium. That should allow Denver to finish 2nd in the AFC West, dropping the Chargers to 3rd place this year.
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