The Kansas City Chiefs know exactly what it takes to win the AFC Championship Game, but this is the 1st time in the Patrick Mahomes era that they will play such a game as a road underdog. The Chiefs are a 3.5-point underdog against the Baltimore Ravens, according to top-rated sportsbooks.
The Chiefs just won as a 2.5-point road underdog in Buffalo last week, but the Ravens present a tougher challenge with a better defense and a better running game, and Lamar Jackson has been playing at a high level in recent weeks.
The Chiefs are going to need a great performance, so we are looking at what their path to victory should consist of for various parts of the roster this week in Baltimore if they are going to keep the dream of a repeat championship alive.
QB Patrick Mahomes: Be the Best Quarterback in the World Again
Leave it up to Patrick Mahomes in the “worst season of his career” to still end up in the AFC Championship Game with a chance to put together another incredible Super Bowl run. He has started to hit the deep ball in the last few games, and the offense looked as good as it has all season in Buffalo last week.
Mahomes has historically played better on the road than he has at home in his career, he’s 8-3 SU as an underdog, 12-2 against top 5 scoring defenses, 13-3 in playoff games, and his stats are somehow better in the playoffs than they are in the regular season. He has also shredded Baltimore in his career with a 3-1 record, passing for over 340 yards in every game.
But the key for Mahomes this week is to not fuel the Ravens with any turnovers for short fields to build their lead. In 4-of-5 playoff games since 2022, Mahomes has finished with no sacks taken and no giveaways. He’s shown he can play mistake-free football this time of year, and this is an important matchup for him to not complicate things by forcing passes against a defense that led the NFL in takeaways and sacks.
If Mahomes shows up like he usually does for big games, the Chiefs should be just fine. His worst playoff loss was the Super Bowl 55 loss to Tampa Bay, but that was because of the way he was under pressure all night with injuries in the offensive line. The Ravens get sacks, but they don’t get a lot of pressure otherwise. This is not a game where he should be under siege, so he should play with a good rhythm.
RB Isiah Pacheco: Run Like There’s No Tomorrow
This one is easy too as Isiah Pacheco always runs like there’s no tomorrow. Now there really is if the Chiefs lose, so expect him to balance the offense with a physical ground attack that could be big in a game expecting some rain.
Pacheco has rushed for 97 and 89 yards with a touchdown in each playoff game. The Chiefs are 10-2 when he reached 55 rushing yards this year. They have to stay physical and stick with the run in this one so that Mahomes isn’t expected to do everything for the offense.
The Receivers: Please Don’t Ruin the Game
This is the scary part for the Chiefs. You know Travis Kelce is likely to give his best effort, but the wide receivers outside of rookie Rashee Rice have been a huge problem all year. They lead the league in dropped passes and have dropped several balls that would have set up late go-ahead scores against the Lions, Eagles and, of course, Kadarius Toney’s offsides penalty wiped out his touchdown against Buffalo in Week 14.
The good news is Toney has been inactive for the last month, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling actually made a few nice catches against Buffalo last week.
But Mecole Hardman is the latest troublemaker. He fumbled on both touches against Buffalo, including a crucial one that went through the end zone in the 4th quarter when it looked like the Chiefs could put the game away.
Mahomes has shown a lot of patience in playing with these guys this year, but they have to stop making those game-killing mistakes.
The Offensive Line: Don’t Jump, Don’t Hold
The offensive line will be helped by Mahomes’ ability to get rid of the ball and not take sacks under pressure. But they have to block for Pacheco without holding, and they have an injury to guard Joe Thuney that is worth monitoring this week to see how much practice he gets.
But the tackles, Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, have been penalty machines all year. Sometimes it’s false starts and sometimes it’s holding calls. The Texans had a ton of false starts in Baltimore last week, but that was a young team. Hopefully, playing in Buffalo was a good experience for this line and they should be ready to execute in front of a loud Baltimore crowd against a hungrier defense.
The Defensive Front: Contain Those Baltimore Backs
Led by Chris Jones, the Chiefs’ defensive front could be key to this game as they try to pressure Lamar Jackson and contain this running game. The Chiefs were No. 2 in sacks (57) this year and No. 2 in pressure rate, so you could argue they have the best pass rush in this game. They have to get after Jackson, who showed some struggles with the blitz in the 1st half last week against Houston, a defense that usually doesn’t blitz much.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo blitzes about 32% of the time, an above-average rate, so he may want to consider doing more of that this week if the Ravens show they struggle with it. But Spagnuolo’s best work all year has consistently been in the 2nd half where the Chiefs allow the fewest points in the league.
But it is paramount to contain the Baltimore backs, who are not the greatest trio with Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and Dalvin Cook. They lost some punch back there when J.K. Dobbins was injured and then the speedster Keaton Mitchell went down. Jackson led the team in rushing, and his scrambles are really the deadliest part of this running game. But you have to stop them early to deter them from just grinding away on the ground.
The Bills ran wild on Kansas City for 3 quarters last week, but the Chiefs stepped up and stuffed James Cook on his final 4 carries, and it scared the Bills away from the run. Look for the Chiefs to do what they can to limit this ground game, including a spy on Jackson that will be crucial to limit his scrambles.
The Secondary: Make Things Difficult on Lamar
The Chiefs have some real standout corners in L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, who have helped shut down some quality receivers this year in Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Davante Adams.
The Ravens are not loaded at receiver. They have quality players but no real Pro Bowl stars at this stage of their career. Zay Flowers is a rookie who doesn’t always get a lot of targets. Odell Beckham Jr. is an aging veteran who had 1 catch last week. Nelson Agholor is still prone to drops. Isaiah Likely has been good at tight end, but who knows if the Ravens mess with their chemistry by bringing back Mark Andrews for the 1st time since Week 11. He could be rusty and drop or fumble a ball in the rain.
The Chiefs just need to make sure they are plastering these receivers and not giving up big plays. They did not allow a gain over 18 yards last week against the Bills, but those receivers did come close a couple of times to beating them deep.
K Harrison Butker: You’re More Justin Tucker than Tyler Bass
Last week was a good reminder of how important kickers are this time of year. While the Ravens still have the gold standard with Justin Tucker, the Chiefs have one of the best in Harrison Butker. He has a solid resume of clutch field goals in the postseason for this team, so they can rely on him to deliver if the game comes down to his leg.
The best part is that Butker does not have a big miss on his resume like what Tyler Bass did last week for Buffalo. The Chiefs are rolling out a kicker who can hold his own with Tucker.
Coach Andy Reid: Final Thoughts
Finally, we just wanted to say to coach Andy Reid that if the team “accidentally” sends Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman to Bulgaria instead of Baltimore this week, that’s okay. You are better off without them on the field.
In a game where it could rain and the ball could be slick, ball security is more important than ever. That is why Reid needs to ditch the cutesy trick plays this week and just play this game straight up. Your quarterback is the best. Pacheco is a beast. Kelce and Rice can get this done. Just stop trying to flip the ball around to multiple players in the backfield and doing these tricks that blow up in your face. Baltimore’s defense is too fast for that too.
If Reid can stop going with the gadget plays and dial up the brilliant highlights that will live in glory like Mahomes on 3rd-and-15 against the 49ers in Super Bowl 54 (“Jet Chip Wasp” was the play call), then the Chiefs are going to be just fine this Sunday.
