A former heavyweight in Clemson and a more current heavyweight in Georgia meet in Week 1 of the regular season. Top-rated sportsbooks have listed Georgia as almost a two-touchdown favorite. The total is hovering close to 50.
With your best bets in mind, I will recommend wagering on the “over.”
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NCAAF Pick
- Over 49 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, August 31, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Key Point
Last year, Georgia averaged 39.5 points per game.
For the “under” to have a chance, Clemson’s offense would have to score an absurdly low number of points or its defense would have to be very good in order to limit Georgia’s offense.
Georgia’s Offense This Year
Before we consider both alternatives, let’s ask whether Georgia’s offense will be as good this year.
There is only one player who Georgia can be claimed to miss: tight end Brock Bowers. However, the Bulldogs have more than enough to replace him. We already know about Oscar Delp, who stepped up when Bowers was injured last year.
Georgia also acquired Benjamin Yurosek, who has been arousing hype for himself with his play in fall camp. At Stanford, he showed himself to be a reliable target who can collect receptions at a high rate, as measured by the reception-to-target ratio. Last year, he also ranked toward the top in yards per reception.
He’ll be in a better offense with a stronger quarterback throwing him the ball, so his numbers stand to improve even with the attention that Delp will receive.
Georgia’s Wide Receivers
The Bulldogs also have several very good wide receivers.
Dominic Lovett returns as the leading guy. He and Dillon Bell (who is a returner from last year) are both All-SEC guys. This is a deep group to which Kirby Smart added Colbie Young from Miami. Young caught 47 passes for 563 yards last year.
The physical skill set of these players is diverse. Lovett, as evident in his 40-yard dash time, and Bell, as evident in his 100-meter personal best, are both speedy. Young is well-sized and can rely on his big body.
Carson Beck
Many think that Beck will be the number one overall pick in next year’s draft. Georgia could not ask for a better quarterback. He has the mechanics, the poise, the awareness, and the arm talent.
Even deep throws will not be too deep for his precision in throwing the football. He’ll zip footballs far and wide, maintaining accuracy under pressure. His statistics also speak for themselves: last year, he amassed 3,941 yards for 24 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Trevor Etienne
Georgia gets an upgrade at running back with Trevor Etienne.
The former Gator averages 5.9 YPC through two seasons. Etienne will be running behind an even better offensive line this year, so that average should improve.
It is widely said that Georgia will have the nation’s best offensive line, as it consists of four All-SEC guys and future NFL stalwarts. With a great running game to complement a strong pass attack, we can see why Georgia’s offense will be at least as good as last year.
Clemson’s Defense
So, will Clemson’s defense be good enough to limit Georgia?
You could make a case that the Tigers are good enough by emphasizing their stats last year. But this is not last year. This is a new year.
We already saw what a new year might look like for Clemson in its Bowl Game. The Tigers’ top cornerback, Nate Wiggins, did not play in that game. Without him, Clemson’s pass attack was gashed by a quarterback who is not as good as Beck. Kentucky’s Devin Leary threw for over 300 yards, as the Wildcats scored 35 points.
Moreover, Clemson is missing more than just Wiggins.
Multiple other cornerbacks have departed, with another big name being Toriano Pride Jr., who was a top-40 recruit, a valuable piece for Clemson’s secondary, and a top transfer.
Moreover, the pass rush, which ranked 31st in sacks last year and suffers from Dabo Swinney’s aversion to using the transfer portal, is not going to be strong enough to challenge Georgia’s elite pass protection.
The Tigers’ run defense will also take a step back with the loss of four defensive line starters and, most crucially, of Jeremiah Trotter Jr., whom PFF graded as the nation’s top-run defender.
Clemson’s Improving Offense
So, we see that Georgia’s offense will be elite and will not be limited by Clemson’s defense.
For the “under” to hit, Clemson’s offense would have to struggle massively. The Tigers scored fewer than 16 points on one occasion last year. In that one game, though, they amassed 422 yards.
First of all, the Tigers’ offense will be much better this year. They don’t lose anything at running back with Phil Mafah taking the starting job. Mafah ran for 965 yards on 5.4 YPC.
The key is that Cade Klubnik is primed to take a major step forward. Klubnik is a former five-star recruit who undoubtedly has the physical talent. Over the offseason, he developed the mental side of his game. In the second year of Garrett Riley’s offense, he’s going to make better judgments and better decisions.
He’ll be supported by an offensive line that returns four starters and benefits from a very well-proven position coach. Moreover, he’ll throw to two former Freshman All-American selections plus some superb talents, such as former five-star recruit Adam Randall.
Georgia’s Weakened Defense
As this defense showed last year, Georgia’s pass rush and rush defense were not what they used to be. Any improvement that happens in these two respects will be more than counterbalanced by a regression in the secondary, where Georgia losses multiple starting-caliber defensive backs as well as its top cornerback.
The Bulldogs lack a real number-one cornerback. Daylen Everette was, as evident in the Missouri game, someone whom opposing pass attacks consistently picked on.
Hit hard by departures, the unit also lacks depth and, like Clemson, relies too heavily on freshmen.
Takeaway
The Bulldogs allowed 16.3 points per game last year but benefitted from facing a lot of soft challenges, whereas now they with their regressed secondary will face a Clemson offense that is stacked with talent, as it showed when it dropped 31 points on a Notre Dame defense that allowed 17 points per game last season.
Clemson will continue its momentum from last season, especially on the offensive side with its returning talent, whereas on defense its weakened secondary and its haplessness against Georgia’s offensive line will enable Georgia to replicate Clemson’s high-scoring output.
I do think that the Tigers will probably cover the spread, but 13 points can feel like a smaller margin of victory in a higher-scoring game. Given the abilities of both offenses and the state of both defenses, the posted total more than the spread is what is most clearly off.
NCAAF Pick: Over 49 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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