The top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for the upcoming Gator Bowl between Clemson and Kentucky.
Perhaps we should say “Clemson” instead of Clemson because the team that the Tigers field will not look like Clemson.
Due to player absences but also match-up factors, I will recommend that you invest in Kentucky for your best bets. I also lean toward the “under,” but I do not trust Clemson’s defense enough to play it.
Top Pick
- Kentucky +7 (-110) at Bet365
Clemson Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Friday, December 29, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
The Key to Stopping Kentucky
On offense, Kentucky is at its best when it runs the ball well.
Conversely, its losses tend to coincide with a weak performance from running back Ray Davis. Prejudiced observers claim that Davis didn’t really do much outside of his spectacular output against Florida, but this isn’t true at all: he was both efficient and productive, amassing 1,066 rushing yards on 5.7 YPC. He helped grind out drives but was also capable of achieving big plays.
Because Davis’ performance is so strongly correlated with the success of his team, it’s crucial to consider the outlook for Clemson’s run defense. But before we can consider that, we have to look at which players will take the field for the Tigers.
Clemson’s Absences
The Clemson team that you see in this game won’t be the Clemson team that you are used to – except for its usual host of problems on offense.
A bevy of key Tigers defenders will be absent for this game, creating a deteriorated defense that is weaker than usual against the pass and the run.
Key absences include top cornerback Nate Wiggins, who is projected to be a first-round draft pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr., potentially another first-round draft pick, defensive lineman Ruke Orhorhoro, who accrued five sacks in the season, and highly valuable starting safety Andrew Mukuba, a former All-ACC selection who entered the transfer portal.
Clemson’s Run Defense
During the regular season, Clemson was already very vulnerable to rushing attacks with a pulse. North Carolina, for example, amassed 248 rushing yards on 7.8 YPC, only failing to exceed 20 points because it fumbled twice when it should have scored two more touchdowns.
There are two important things to note about that North Carolina game. One, it is far from the only game in which Clemson’s run defense has elicited concerns. In the game before, for example, Georgia Tech’s starting running back achieved 104 rushing yards on 6.9 YPC.
Two, in that game against North Carolina, both Trotter Jr. and Mukuba played.
Missing Trotter Jr. and Mukuba
Without Trotter Jr. and Mukuba, an already vulnerable Clemson run defense takes a significant step back. Both players are highly reputed largely because of their ability to tackle and stop the run.
Trotter Jr. has been ranked as PFF’s top run-defender. With his physicality and explosiveness as a tackler, Mukuba would have also been a valuable asset against the Kentucky run game.
Clemson will gravely miss both players, but it also would have been in enough trouble with them.
Keeping Them Honest
Kentucky won’t be one-dimensional on offense. This is a team that also likes to pass the ball more than people would expect from Mark Stoops’ squad.
Clemson’s collection of absences is critical also because it bails out Kentucky in the sense that the Wildcats will be able to hide a weakness of theirs, which is wide receiver depth. Kentucky doesn’t really have much to offer after its top three wide receivers, Dane Key, Tayvion Robinson, and Barion Brown, but this is more than enough with Wiggins out.
Clemson never really found someone to lock down the number two corner spot, but Toriano Pride, who hit the transfer portal, won’t be that guy.
Clemson’s Offense
If you don’t like Clemson’s defense to do well, then it’s impossible to like Clemson, because it’s impossible to trust its offense that much.
The Tigers’ offense is inconsistent, failing to exceed 17 points in five of its ten games against FBS opponents. They did, of course, beat up on lowly Florida Atlantic and punching bag Syracuse.
Otherwise, they typically had to rely on a huge output from their rush attack in order to score a lot of points.
Kentucky’s Run Defense
Defensively, Kentucky matches up optimally against the Tigers because, as was already clear heading into the season, the front seven is Kentucky’s strength.
One member of the front seven worth highlighting is J.J. Weaver, who ably disengages from blockers to pursue ball carriers and always poses a relatively strong threat to force a fumble.
With this front seven, the Wildcats rank 25th nationally in run defense, in the process shutting down strong rush attacks like Florida’s with its normally potent duo.
Takeaway
With a quarterback in Cade Klubnik who often fails to reach 200 yards, and who will miss his second-leading wide receiver to the transfer portal, Clemson will have to rely on its run game.
But the Tigers will turn out another weak scoring output because Kentucky’s front seven makes its run defense very strong and well-proven.
It is Kentucky that will have the easier time scoring with its rush attack and balanced offense against an already vulnerable Clemson defense that will miss key players.
NCAAF Pick: Kentucky +7 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
