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College Basketball Computer Picks for December 28: Backing Oakland as the Underdog

Chris Conway #23 of The Oakland Golden Grizzlies Dunks the Ball in The Second Half Against the Michigan State Spartans
Chris Conway #23 of the Oakland Golden Grizzlies dunks the ball in the second half against the Michigan State Spartans. Rey Del Rio/Getty Images/AFP

We’ve got many exciting games on the West Coast for tonight’s college basketball slate. Here are three bets that our computers like ahead of tonight’s schedule of games.

Picks Summary


Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Cleveland State Vikings

Thursday, December 28, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Wolstein Center


Our AI Model thinks Oakland will earn a 76-75 win over Cleveland State outright. As a 2.5-point underdog, the value is on Oakland tonight.

The Oakland Grizzlies are pathetic on defense, but ultimately a solid offense. That should be fine against Cleveland State.

The Cleveland State Vikings have allowed 37.8% of offensive rebounds and have allowed teams to shoot 53.4% from inside the arc. It’s also likely that Oakland gets to the foul line more frequently than they’re used to, with the Vikings fouling at an extremely high rate.

Meanwhile, Oakland isn’t great at defending the three or inside the arc. However, the Vikings have shot just 44.6% from inside the arc and 65.6% from the foul line. They can’t just rely on the three-ball to go down every game. That’s just not realistic.

Therefore, I’ll back Oakland at +2.5 in this matchup. The Grizzlies are much better offensively and that should carry them past Cleveland State tonight.

NCAAB Pick: Oakland +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)


USC Trojans vs. Oregon Ducks

Thursday, December 28, 2023 – 09:00 PM ET at Matthew Knight Arena


The AI Model suggests USC and Oregon will combine to score 153 points. With the total sitting at 148.5 at Bet365, the Over makes the most sense.

Recent Performances

The USC Trojans have lost three of their last four games. The only win for the Trojans in that span was against Alabama State, which is nothing to get excited about.

Meanwhile, Oregon’s been much more consistent. They’ve got losses to Syracuse, Alabama, and Santa Clara, which was bad. But all of those games were on a neutral court.

This game is a home game for Oregon. The Ducks have shot an effective field goal percentage of 53.1, hitting 34.3% from downtown and 54% from inside the arc. While Oregon doesn’t shoot it well from the foul line, the Ducks still typically get there at a high rate. That at least helps earn some extra points with the time stopped.

With USC struggling on the defensive glass, the Ducks should ultimately add some offensive rebounds and second chances as well.

Conversely, USC has nailed nearly 35% from three and 51.3% from inside the arc. While Oregon defends well inside, the Trojans should have their way from downtown.

USC’s Free Throw Proficiency

Oregon has allowed teams to hit 34.2% from three and continue to foul at a very high rate. Not only does USC get to the foul line at a high rate, but the Trojans are also hitting 72.2% from the foul line. That’s very helpful in a close game. Therefore, we’ll grab the Over at -110 betting odds in this one.

NCAAB Pick: Over 148.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)


UCLA Trojans vs. Oregon State Beavers

Thursday, December 28, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET at Gill Coliseum


The AI Model suggests Oregon State will only lose to UCLA, 69-67, at home. With the Beavers sitting at +6, the value on Oregon State can’t be missed.

The UCLA Trojans have lost four straight games. The losing streak began on Dec 9 against Villanova and carried over against Ohio State. Then they lost a home game to Cal State Northridge and another home game to Maryland on Friday. 

Oregon State’s Winning Streak

Now they’ll hit the road to take on an Oregon State team that is on a five-game winning streak. However, that five-game winning streak isn’t that significant. The Beavers have defeated a bunch of non-Power-5 schools. Still, Oregon State has the momentum.

The Beavers haven’t shot the ball very well from deep, hitting only 29.7% from downtown. However, Oregon State has also hit 50.5% from inside the arc and gets to the foul line at a very high rate. With UCLA fouling at a very high rate, you can expect the Beavers to hit a lot of foul shots in this game.

Oregon State will still need to limit turnovers. The Beavers have turned the ball over 19.9% of the time, while UCLA has averaged 19.1% of turnovers. It’s also unlikely that Oregon State dominates the offensive glass, as the Beavers have managed just 27.8% of offensive rebounds.

UCLA’s Shooting Woes

On the other hand, UCLA has only shot 29.1% from three and 45.7% from inside the arc. They’ll get to the foul line, too, and likely win more second chances and keep turnovers down better. But that field goal percentage is simply too ugly. It’s hurt them in many games this season and will likely hurt them more in a conference matchup on the road.

Take Oregon State at +6. I’m with the AI Model.

NCAAB Pick: Oregon State +6 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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