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College Basketball Computer Picks for December 6: Nittany Lions Aim to Break Losing Streak

Camren Wynter Penn State Nittany Lions v Texas Longhorns
Camren Wynter #11 of the Penn State Nittany Lions shoots the ball against the Texas Longhorns. Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP

We’ve got plenty of college basketball on the slate tonight. Here are a few bets that stand out on the betting board!

Picks Summary

  • Penn State +7.5 (-110) at BetRivers
  • Vermont -2.5 (-110) at BetRivers
  • San Francisco-Vanderbilt Over 138 (-110) at Bet365

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Maryland Terrapins

Wednesday, December 06, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at XFINITY Center


Our AI Model believes Penn State and Maryland will tie 69-69. There’s no tying in basketball. But with Penn State sitting at +7.5, the value is in the Nittany Lions.

Penn State is on a four-game losing streak after winning their first four games of the season. The Nittany Lions are weak from three but have still shot 54.3% from inside the arc. They’re getting to the foul line at a high rate and should have success on the offensive glass, with Maryland allowing 32.6% of offensive rebounds.

Penn State’s Advantage

On the other hand, Maryland has shot 22.7% from three and 67.7% from the foul line. In reality, Penn State has been a bit unlucky with the foul line. Most teams they’ve faced have drained their looks. Maryland likely won’t be the same.

The Nittany Lions have earned 23.5% of turnovers and will take on a Maryland offense that has shot a 45.7% effective field goal percentage

Maryland’s home in a massive Big Ten matchup. However, Penn State is comparable in many categories. Maryland’s the better defense, but as long as the Terrapins allow second chances, it won’t matter as much.

Back Penn State at +7.5.

NCAAB Pick: Penn State +7.5 (-110) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)


Vermont Catamounts vs. Northeastern Huskies

Wednesday, December 06, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Matthews Arena


Our AI Model believes Vermont will earn a 79-71 victory over Northeastern tonight. However, the Catamounts are only -2.5 against the spread. Vermont against the spread is the play.

The Vermont Catamounts should have no problem offensively against Northeastern tonight. Vermont has an adjusted efficiency on offense of 108.2. That’s the top 100 in college basketball.

Meanwhile, Northeastern has allowed a 110.3 adjusted efficiency on defense. That’s 307th in the nation. Northeastern has allowed 35.2% from three and 56.1% from inside the arc. The Huskies are also giving up 31.9% of offensive rebounds and have only earned 16.3% of turnovers.

Vermont’s Defensive Edge

With Vermont shooting 35.5% from three and 50.7% from inside the arc, it’ll be a long night for Northeastern. Meanwhile, Northeastern’s offense is comparable to Vermont’s. The Huskies have shot 33.7% from deep and 54.9% from inside the arc. They’re also getting to the foul line at a very high rate and do well on the offensive glass.

The difference is Vermont’s defense. The Catamounts have limited teams to 24% of offensive rebounds. They’ve also kept teams to 32.4% from three and 47.1% from inside the arc.

Vermont won’t earn many steals, but they’ll stay active defensively and force some really tough shots. The less aggressive Vermont is, the better. That would keep Northeastern off the foul line.

Take Vermont at -2.5.

NCAAB Pick: Vermont -2.5 (-110) at BetRivers


San Francisco Dons vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

Wednesday, December 06, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at Memorial Gymnasium


The AI Model suggests San Francisco and Vanderbilt will combine for 146 points. However, the oddsmakers have this game listed with a total of 138. The Over looks to have plenty of value tonight in this exciting non-conference matchup.

The Vanderbilt Commodores haven’t played great defense to begin the year. They’ve given up a 50.8% effective field goal percentage and have only earned 14.8% of turnovers this season. Opponents have nailed 38.5% from downtown, while Vanderbilt struggles to earn blocks or steals against its opponents.

Meanwhile, South Florida has shot an effective field goal percentage of 51%. That’s at least above average. While Vanderbilt is solid on the glass, San Francisco won’t make anything easy. The Dons have earned 34.1% of offensive rebounds this season. They need to get to the foul line more consistently, especially since they’re shooting 75.5% from the line. However, they’re also shooting about 55% from inside the arc, which is 52nd in the country.

Battle of Styles 

While San Francisco hasn’t hit many threes this season, shooting below 30%, Vanderbilt has been awful defending the three. If San Francisco is left open, they’ll nail some three-pointers. Meanwhile, San Francisco has played better defense this season. But the Dons have also fouled at a very high rate.

Vanderbilt might not shoot it as well as San Francisco. But the Commodores will get to the foul line more frequently, where they’ve made nearly 73% of their shots this season.

With San Francisco getting higher-quality looks and Vanderbilt getting to the foul line consistently, the Over, at -110 betting odds, surely looks like the play in this one.

NCAAB Pick: Over 138 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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