There is plenty of NCAAB action on today’s card. Here are three college basketball computer picks for February 17 that our AI Model likes in the later portion of the slate.
Picks Summary
- Kansas -2 (-110)
- Baylor -7.5 (-110)
- Kentucky/Tennessee Under 164 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, February 17, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Lloyd Noble Center
Our AI Model suggests Kansas will earn a three-point victory on the road against Oklahoma later today. Kansas is just -2 at Caesars Sportsbook and sitting at -135 on the moneyline. There’s value in the AP’s 6th best team in the nation.
Kansas Jayhawks
The Kansas Jayhawks are ranked No. 6 in the nation, but they’ve lost two consecutive games after knocking off Houston to begin February.
Now Kansas will play Oklahoma, on the road, in what should be a classic Big 12 matchup.
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma last lost to Baylor, 79-62, on the road. However, the Sooners won each of their last two home games against BYU and Oklahoma State. Kansas won’t dominate the offensive glass. They’ll also struggle to shoot from deep, with Oklahoma limiting teams to 28.9% from downtown.
The Jayhawks aren’t a high-volume team from three. They’re shooting 55.8% from inside the arc and are always looking to score around the rim.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma has turned the ball over 18% of the time and will likely lose the turnover battle. The Sooners are also taking worse shots, with 10.8% of their shots being blocked.
The Pick
The Sooners have hit 55.3% from inside the arc, which is good. But Oklahoma’s defense has been tremendous inside, holding teams to 45% from two this season.
Despite Kansas being on the road, I like the Jayhawks to escape with a victory on the road.
NCAAB Pick: Kansas -2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baylor Bears vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Saturday, February 17, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at WVU Coliseum
The AI model likes Baylor to win tonight’s matchup, 78-69. However, at Caesars Sportsbook, Baylor is a 7.5-point favorite, giving some cushion for the Baylor Bears in tonight’s Big 12 game.
Baylor Bears
The Baylor Bears have won four of their last five games, with the only loss being at Kansas, 64-61. Baylor is now 7-4 in conference play and has gone 18-6 this season.
The Bears will face a West Virginia team that is currently on a three-game losing streak. The Mountaineers have lost five of their last six games and are just 8-16 on the season.
West Virginia Mountaineers
While West Virginia is good at limiting free throws, they’ll struggle to stop this Baylor potent offense.
The Bears have shot 41.2% from deep, which leads the nation. They’ve also hit 53.3% from inside the arc. That’s good enough against a West Virginia defense that has given up more than 50% from inside the arc this year.
The Mountaineers also aren’t earning many turnovers and have given up 29.6% of offensive rebounds. Baylor has grabbed nearly 36% of offensive rebounds and will get second chances in this game.
Also, the Mountaineers have shot poorly from the field, hitting 32.8% from deep and 46.3% from inside the arc. Baylor isn’t always great at defending inside. However, West Virginia is one of the worst teams in Power-5 from inside the arc this season.
The Pick
The Mountaineers have watched 11.2% of shots get blocked and have seen 10.5% of possessions result in a legitimate steal. Baylor has added 18.2% of turnovers and has limited teams to 28% of offensive rebounds.
Back Baylor at -7.5.
NCAAB Pick: Baylor -7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers
Saturday, February 17, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Neville Arena
The AI Model has Kentucky and Auburn combined to score 163 points. However, Caesars Sportsbook has a total of 164. We’ll take any edge we can get!
Kentucky Wildcats
The Kentucky Wildcats just added a home win over Ole Miss to push their SEC record to 7-4 on the year. Kentucky is still 17-7 this season and has only lost five games since December 2.
They’ll hit the road to take on an interesting Auburn team that just defeated South Carolina 101-61. But before that win, Auburn lost to Florida, 81-65.
Auburn Tigers
The Auburn Tigers are one of the best teams in the nation. But Kentucky is also ranked inside the AP Top 25, making this game an appealing one.
Auburn is known for its defense, and Kentucky is known for its offense.
Kentucky has shot a 56.7% effective field goal percentage, hitting nearly 41% from three and 54.1% from inside the arc. However, Auburn has limited teams to a 43.2% effective field goal percentage and has watched teams shoot just 29.8% from three and 43.4% from inside the arc.
Auburn’s Defense
Auburn’s defense in the two-point area has been the best in college basketball. It’s also not like Kentucky shoots a high rate of threes. They’re typically looking to score inside the arc.
While the Tigers foul at a high rate, the Wildcats don’t get to the foul line often. Kentucky is also good at keeping turnovers down, meaning we likely won’t see a bunch of transition and fastbreak buckets out of Auburn.
On the other hand, Auburn has only hit 33.8% from deep and 55% from two. They’ve had success, but nothing eye-popping from the floor. Kentucky will give up some second chances and won’t earn turnovers, either. However, the Wildcats have held teams to 32% from three and 49% from inside the arc.
The Pick
The defense should step up. After all, the Wildcats have blocked 16.6% of shots this season.
Let’s back the Under 164. I’m with the AI Model here.
NCAAB Pick: Under 164 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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