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College Basketball Computer Picks for February 28: Minnesota’s Regression Is Starting!

The NCAAB slate is loaded with value tonight! Here are three bets to consider for tonight’s action in college basketball.

Picks Summary


Virginia Cavaliers vs. Boston College Eagles

Wednesday, February 28, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Silvio O. Conte Forum


Our AI Model suggests Virginia and Boston College will combine for 128 points in this potentially thrilling matchup. However, the oddsmakers have this game at 126.5 on Bet365, providing value for the Over.

Three-Point Magic

The Virginia Cavaliers have been very streaky. The team earned nine wins in their last ten games but have since lost two straight. The Cavaliers haven’t scored more than 49 points in any of their last three games. Yet, against Boston College, that should finally change.

Boston College has allowed a 51.5% effective field goal percentage, allowing 35.5% from deep and 50.5% from inside the arc. Although Virginia doesn’t take a ton of threes, the Cavaliers have still shot 36.4% from downtown.

That’s an area where Virginia will find success against Boston College tonight.

A Game of Efficiency

On the other hand, neither team will get to the foul line at a high rate or even add a bunch of offensive rebounds. However, Boston College still shoots 36.9% from three and 52.3% from inside the arc.

The Eagles are even hitting nearly 75% from the foul line in this game.

This is why the total is already super low at 126.5. Still, we’d just need both teams to score about 64 points to earn the Over. With Virginia’s three-point shooting and Boston College’s consistency from the field, I’m riding the Over with the AI Model.

NCAAB Pick: Over 126.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)


Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Wednesday, February 28, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at State Farm Center


The AI Model believes Illinois will earn a 12-point win over Minnesota tonight at home. Minnesota has covered most games this season. Maybe it’s time for some regression. Illinois is only favored by 11, giving us value on Illinois against the spread.

Gophers’ Surprise Run

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have put together a surprising season. They’re 17-10 and have a chance to finish the regular season with a record of above .500 in conference play.

While tonight’s game against Illinois will be tough, Minnesota’s next three games are winnable to finish out the conference slate.

Anyway, Illinois will be tough to defend on their home floor. The Fighting Illini have shot 34.5% from three, 54.6% from inside and have only turned the ball over 15.6% of the time.

Fighting Illini Dominance

Illinois will win the rebounding battle.

The Fighting Illini have already added 36.3% of offensive rebounds this season. Beyond that, Illinois has shot 74% from the foul line, which is massive, knowing Minnesota struggles at the foul line.

On the road, shooting free throws isn’t easy. Minnesota has only hit 68.8% of foul shots this season and has grabbed only 31.5% of offensive rebounds. That’s not a terrible rate, but it doesn’t compare to Illinois’ offensive rebounding rate of 36.3.

There won’t be a heavy amount of turnovers in this game. Still, Illinois should certainly outplay and outshoot the Gophers to cover the 11-point spread. The Minnesota regression is starting!

NCAAB Pick: Illinois -11 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)


Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Wednesday, February 28, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion


The AI Model likes Alabama in an 87-80 win on the road over Ole Miss tonight. Meanwhile, Bet365 only has Alabama as a 6-point favorite. The bet is on Alabama, despite its recent loss to Kentucky over the weekend.

Offensive Powerhouse

The Alabama Crimson Tide lost to Kentucky, 117-95, over the weekend on the road. However, prior to that loss, Alabama was on a three-game winning streak and won seven of eight games in the SEC.

The Crimson Tide are still 19-8 on the season and 11-3 in conference play. They’re a dangerous team, especially on offense.

They’ll face an Ole Miss squad that struggles to rebound on the defensive end. Ole Miss has allowed 35.2% of offensive rebounds, while Alabama has hauled in 35.8% of offensive rebounds.

Shooting Disparity

The Crimson Tide already makes a high rate of shots. But off those misses, they’re going to get second chances and more shots up, thanks to their work on the offensive glass.

On the other hand, Ole Miss has been money from downtown, hitting 37.7% from three. However, the Rebels don’t shoot threes like Alabama. They’d rather score inside the arc but have only hit 48.5% of shots inside the arc.

Like Alabama, Ole Miss should have success on the offensive glass. Yet, the Rebels certainly won’t be able to out-shoot the Crimson Tide in this game, shooting under 50% from inside the arc.

Let’s go with the AI Model and grab Alabama -6.

NCAAB Pick: Alabama -6 (-110) at Bet365

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

 

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