We’re deep into many of the top conference tournaments! Here are three bets for the late portion of the night at the AI Model. Let’s keep cashing in at top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary
- Texas A&M +6 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Akron -2 (-110) at Bet365
- Nebraska -3.5 (-110) at Bet365
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Friday, March 15, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Bridgestone Arena
Our AI Model suggests Kentucky will defeat Texas A&M 82-77. That’s only a five-point win, which wouldn’t be enough to cover. The Aggies are sitting at +6 and have the value in this game per the AI Model.
We’ve seen a bunch of upsets in these conference tournaments.
Why not Texas A&M next?
The Aggies already added a 97-92 win over Kentucky back on January 13. That game went to overtime and the Aggies pulled it out.
Although Kentucky has a much better offense, the Aggies have a much better defense. If Texas A&M can stick around offensively against Kentucky like that other game, then it’ll be a close finish.
Rebounding Royalty
The Aggies have only shot an effective field goal percentage of 45%. That’s horrible. However, the Aggies are also No. 1 in the nation in offensive rebounding rate, adding 42.2% of offensive rebounds per game. Off all those misses will come second chances, especially with Kentucky allowing 30.1% of offensive rebounds themselves.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats have drained 41.2% from deep and rarely turn the ball over. They’ll have more of a challenge getting good looks, with Texas A&M allowing 33.1% from deep and 49.4% from inside the arc.
It’s a SEC Tournament game. Expect this one to be tight throughout. Back the Aggies at +6.
NCAAB Pick: Texas A&M +6 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Ohio Bobcats vs. Akron Zips
Friday, March 15, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
The AI Model likes Akron to earn a three-point win in the MAC Semifinals matchup. With Akron’s spread at -2, the value is on the favorite.
Zip Zap Defense
The Akron Zips had a slip-up over their last five games of the regular season. They lost three of their last four games to finish with a 13-5 record. However, Akron regrouped and earned a win over Miami OH to begin tournament play last night.
They’ll take on an Ohio Bobcats team whom they split the regular season series with this season.
Akron’s defense is better straight up. The Zips have allowed teams to hit only 30.5% from downtown this season, which is crucial with Ohio taking a high rate of three-pointers per game.
The Bobcats have made 35.5% from downtown, which is above average but not elite. It’ll be hard for Ohio to earn second chances and more offensive rebounds off the forced misses by Akron. Akron is really good on the defensive glass and limits fouls at a high rate.
Advantages on the Glass
Meanwhile, Ohio’s defense gives up way more offensive rebounds and fouls at a much higher rate. To me, that’s worth more than two points.
Akron might not shoot a good rate from downtown. Yet, they’ll end up with more offensive rebounds and will see the foul line more. They’ll have more shots from the field, which should give them the edge.
The Zips are also shooting 55.3% from inside the arc, which is a very solid rate. Let’s roll with Akron here.
NCAAB Pick: Akron -2 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)Â
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Friday, March 15, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Target Center
The AI Model likes Nebraska to add a five-point win over Indiana in tonight’s quarterfinal game in the Big Ten. This will be Nebraska’s first game of the tournament. However, the sportsbooks have Nebraska as a five-point favorite. The Cornhuskers are the play.
Defensive Dominance
The Indiana Hoosiers have been very streaky throughout the season. Currently, this team has won five consecutive games including last night’s victory over Penn State to begin Tournament play.
The Hoosiers are playing much better basketball. But we can’t forget how Indiana lost to Nebraska on two separate occasions by at least 14 points. One of those games was at home when Nebraska dominated them.
The Cornhuskers have played tremendous defense this season. They’ve held opponents to 31.8% from deep and 45.1% from inside the arc. Nebraska also doesn’t foul at a high rate, but the less aggressive approach also leads to fewer turnovers.
Inside the Arc Showdown
On the other hand, Indiana has hit just 32.7% from three and 53.9% from inside the arc. Indiana won’t even take many threes and prefers shooting inside, which only helps them out. However, Nebraska still ranks 14th in the nation in defending inside the arc.
Although Nebraska won’t get turnovers, Indiana won’t either. The Hoosiers have added under 15% of turnovers per game. They’ve also allowed 33.9% from downtown and 47.1% from inside the arc.
Nebraska is slightly better from the field, hitting 35.7% from deep and 52.5% from inside the arc. Unlike Indiana, Nebraska takes way more threes and nails them at a better clip. I’d much rather bet on the team taking the three-balls. I’d also prefer betting on the team that is better defending inside the arc and around the paint.
Back the Cornhuskers at -3.5 as they begin their journey in the Big Ten Tournament tonight.
NCAAB Pick: Nebraska -3.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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