We’re deep into many of the top conference tournaments, so here are our college basketball computer picks for March 16.
Here are the college basketball odds available at the top betting sites for the late portion of the night.
Let’s keep cashing in!
Picks Summary
- Iowa State/Houston Under 121.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Marquette/UConn Under 141.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Western Kentucky (-165) at Caesars Sportsbook
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Houston Cougars
Saturday, March 16, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at T-Mobile Center
Our AI Model suggests Iowa State and Houston will combine for only 121 points in the Big 12 Championship. Meanwhile, Bet365 is carrying a 121.5 number, providing value on the Under.
Big 12 Championship
Houston and Iowa State will clash in the Big 12 Championship today. Houston’s ranked as the best defense in the nation. Iowa State is ranked second. Again, these two teams will play for a Big 12 Championship.
You know the defense will be on point for both sides.
High Defensive Turnover Percentage
Houston has held teams to 29.6% from deep and 43% from inside the arc. Meanwhile, Iowa State has a higher defensive turnover percentage than Houston.
While both teams still foul at a high rate due to their aggressive player, neither team even shoots above 70% from the foul line this season.
Computer Pick
Houston’s a little bit better from downtown, and Iowa State can score at a high rate inside the arc. But overall, we can trust both defenses tonight.
The first team to 50 points might win this game.
NCAAB Pick: Under 121.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. UConn Huskies
Saturday, March 16, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
The AI Model likes the Under 141.5 in tonight’s Big East Championship Game. Marquette and UConn are expected to combine for 141 points, which wouldn’t be enough to get Over the total on Caesars Sportsbook.
Best In the Nation
The UConn Huskies are the best offense in the nation. They’ve shot 36.9% from deep and 58.6% from inside the arc. The team has also grabbed 37% of offensive rebounds and turned-over the ball under 15% of the time.
It’s hard to guard the Huskies.
But this is a conference game between two teams that know each other well. The Golden Eagles have earned 21.4% of turnovers defensively and have held teams to 33.7% from three and 48.9% from inside the arc. Those are above-average defensive numbers for Marquette.
Still Missing Tyler Kolek
On the other hand, Marquette probably still can’t keep up with UConn. The Golden Eagles will still be without Tyler Kolek until the NCAA Tournament, which hurts. But what also hurts is that Marquette is weak on the offensive glass and rarely consistently gets to the foul line.
Computer Pick
The Golden Eagles are typically good around the rim, shooting 56.4%. However, UConn has held teams to 43.8% from inside the arc.
With solid defensive effort in this Big East Championship game, I’ll back the Under with the AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: Under 141.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
UTEP Miners vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Saturday, March 16, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Propst Arena
The AI Model has Western Kentucky adding a 75-71 win over UTEP. That’s enough value to take Western Kentucky on the moneyline at -165.
Crowning a Champ
The Conference USA will crown a champion tonight. The winner of this game will also play in the NCAA Tournament in less than a week. Western Kentucky lost four consecutive games before the conference tournament. Now they’re one win away from winning the tournament.
Meanwhile, UTEP has won five consecutive games after finishing the regular season on a three-game winning streak. The Miners split the season series with the Hilltoppers, with each team winning on their home floor.
Not Good Enough
The Miners simply don’t have a good offense. UTEP has shot 30.6% from deep and 49.2% from inside the arc. While UTEP is good at forcing turnovers on the defensive end, the Miners have also given up 21.1% of turnovers on their own.
UTEP is also really good at getting to the foul line. But they also foul at a very high rate and put most teams at the foul line just as much.
The Hilltoppers are more consistent, especially on the defensive end. Teams have only shot 32% from deep and 48.6% from inside the arc this season. They’ve also allowed only 26.6% of offensive rebounds per game.
Computer Pick
UTEP doesn’t do the same. The Miners have allowed 31% of offensive rebounds and have watched teams shoot 53% from inside the arc. That’s massive because Western Kentucky doesn’t take a whole bunch of threes.
They look to score around the rim and do a good job of it, shooting about 52% from inside the arc. Therefore, we’ll roll with Western Kentucky on the moneyline to get the C-USA Championship
NCAAB Pick: Western Kentucky (-165) at Caesars Sportsbook
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